EAR-PF: The Rapid Response of Permafrost (RRP) to Intense Day-Long and Season-Long Climate Warming

EAR-PF：永久冻土层 (RRP) 对全天和全季气候变暖的快速响应

• 批准号: 2204594
• 负责人: Cansu Culha
• 金额: $ 18万
• 依托单位: Culha, Cansu
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-06-01 至 2025-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2204594&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAR; PF; Rapid; Response; Permafrost

Approximately 85% of the Alaskan landscape, more than half of Alaskan communities, 75% of Alaskan pipelines, and 80% of state-owned Alaskan roads are on periglacial land -- an active soil layer that undergoes seasonal freeze-thaw cycles, supported by a deeper frozen layer called permafrost. Global warming accelerates melting, thinning and weakening of permafrost, which raises concerns for the stability of periglacial landscapes and the sustainability of critical infrastructure. Furthermore, land surface failures in periglacial environments can deliver large quantities of sediment, metals, and bacterial life to fragile local and coastal watershed ecologies, as well as release greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere. A vital part of government and industry response to climate change will be tools that manage the unprecedented hazards of permafrost in periglacial landscapes. Dr. Culha will characterize the underlying physics of these tools. One objective is to create models that predict the different types of periglacial response to rapid, intense warming, like seasonal heat waves. A second objective is to develop a novel interactive application that can support national and local Arctic community leaders in the rapid permafrost response, as well as to use community inputs to train and enhance her models.During July 2019, one of the hottest on record, collaborators documented a 100-meter wide ``retrogressive thaw slump," an unprecedented periglacial landscape response to rapid, intense warming. This horseshoe shaped landscape failure has since formed a stream from the melting permafrost, delivering silty water to a nearby watershed. Landscape failures like retrogressive thaw slumps and water draining events can pose risks not just to critical infrastructure such as roads, oil pipelines and schools but potentially to the sustainability of indigenous populations across the Canadian Arctic and in parts of Alaska. The risks may also cause these indigenous populations to relocate or rebuild if the failures lead to clogged fresh water resources, damaged fisheries and altered ecological habitats. Furthermore, landscape failure events are associated with the release of permafrost-trapped gasses, metals, nutrients and pathogens into the ecosystem. Thus, the effects of periglacial landscape failure are not limited to the failure area. A key proposal objective is to develop a regime diagram of the different permafrost responses as a function of landscape and climatic characteristics. The models from this objective will enable the development of hazard maps of periglacial landscapes. A second major objective is the development of a practical interactive digital tool that applies the predictive hazard maps to provide instantaneous risk assessments. For example, through this application, water agencies can quantify vulnerability to sediment bombardment from land failures, fisheries can extract probabilities for increased sediment delivery and metal leaching, and natural disaster agencies can estimate the regional extents and infrastructure that are most vulnerable to permafrost landscape collapse. With user input, the application can further help test and improve the accuracy of the models. This proposal will use field observations with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution from Axel Heiberg Island, novel computational physical models, data science and traditional knowledge to characterize, understand, and disseminate emerging hazards and critical risks of these summer warming events.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

大约85％的阿拉斯加景观，一半以上的阿拉斯加社区，75％的阿拉斯加管道和80％的国有阿拉斯加道路都在冰山泥土上 - 一个活跃的土壤层，经历了季节性的季节性冷冻周期，并由较深的弗雷兹层（称为permafrost frozen层）支撑。全球变暖加速了融化，变薄和弱化的多年冻土，这引起了人们对周层景观稳定性和关键基础设施的可持续性的关注。此外，冰川环境中的陆地表面故障可以将大量的沉积物，金属和细菌寿命传递给脆弱的局部和沿海流域生态，并将温室气体释放到大气中。政府对气候变化的重要组成部分和行业反应将是管理冰期景观中永久冻土史无前例的危害的工具。 Culha博士将表征这些工具的基本物理。一个目的是创建模型，以预测对快速，强烈变暖（如季节性热浪）的不同类型的冰山冰止反应。 A second objective is to develop a novel interactive application that can support national and local Arctic community leaders in the rapid permafrost response, as well as to use community inputs to train and enhance her models.During July 2019, one of the hottest on record, collaborators documented a 100-meter wide ``retrogressive thaw slump," an unprecedented periglacial landscape response to rapid, intense warming. This horseshoe shaped从那以后，景观失败形成了融化的多永冻土，将粉质的水传递到附近的流域，例如倒退的融化，供水事件构成危险，而不仅仅是关键的基础设施，例如道路，石油管道和学校，但可能会造成跨越可能的人群的可持续性。如果失败导致淡水资源堵塞，渔业损坏和生态栖息地改变，则搬迁或重建的种群将进行重建或重建。此外，景观故障事件与释放了被冻土的气体，金属，营养素和病原体的释放有关。因此，冰川景观失败的影响不限于失败区域。一个关键的建议目标是开发出与景观和气候特征的函数不同多年冻土反应的制度图。该目标的模型将使冰川景观危险图的发展发展。第二个主要目标是开发实用的交互式数字工具，该工具应用了预测危险图来提供瞬时风险评估。例如，通过此应用，水机构可以量化土地故障遭到沉积物轰击的脆弱性，渔业可以提取概率增加沉积物和金属浸出，而自然灾害机构可以估计，最容易受到最易受弗洛斯特果景观崩溃的区域范围和基础设施。使用用户输入，该应用程序可以进一步帮助测试和提高模型的准确性。该提案将使用阿克塞尔·海伯格岛（Axel Heiberg Island）的前所未有的空间和时间分辨率的现场观察，新颖的计算物理模型，数据科学和传统知识来表征，理解和传播这些夏季变暖事件的新兴危险和关键风险。该奖项奖旨在通过评估NSF的法规范围，反映了众所周知的Infectia crigia and Intellitia infortial and Founditial and Founditial的支持者。