EAR-PF: The Rapid Response of Permafrost (RRP) to Intense Day-Long and Season-Long Climate Warming

EAR-PF：永久冻土层 (RRP) 对全天和全季气候变暖的快速响应

• 批准号: 2204594
• 负责人: Cansu Culha
• 金额: $ 18万
• 依托单位: Culha, Cansu
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-06-01 至 2025-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2204594&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAR; PF; Rapid; Response; Permafrost

Approximately 85% of the Alaskan landscape, more than half of Alaskan communities, 75% of Alaskan pipelines, and 80% of state-owned Alaskan roads are on periglacial land -- an active soil layer that undergoes seasonal freeze-thaw cycles, supported by a deeper frozen layer called permafrost. Global warming accelerates melting, thinning and weakening of permafrost, which raises concerns for the stability of periglacial landscapes and the sustainability of critical infrastructure. Furthermore, land surface failures in periglacial environments can deliver large quantities of sediment, metals, and bacterial life to fragile local and coastal watershed ecologies, as well as release greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere. A vital part of government and industry response to climate change will be tools that manage the unprecedented hazards of permafrost in periglacial landscapes. Dr. Culha will characterize the underlying physics of these tools. One objective is to create models that predict the different types of periglacial response to rapid, intense warming, like seasonal heat waves. A second objective is to develop a novel interactive application that can support national and local Arctic community leaders in the rapid permafrost response, as well as to use community inputs to train and enhance her models.During July 2019, one of the hottest on record, collaborators documented a 100-meter wide ``retrogressive thaw slump," an unprecedented periglacial landscape response to rapid, intense warming. This horseshoe shaped landscape failure has since formed a stream from the melting permafrost, delivering silty water to a nearby watershed. Landscape failures like retrogressive thaw slumps and water draining events can pose risks not just to critical infrastructure such as roads, oil pipelines and schools but potentially to the sustainability of indigenous populations across the Canadian Arctic and in parts of Alaska. The risks may also cause these indigenous populations to relocate or rebuild if the failures lead to clogged fresh water resources, damaged fisheries and altered ecological habitats. Furthermore, landscape failure events are associated with the release of permafrost-trapped gasses, metals, nutrients and pathogens into the ecosystem. Thus, the effects of periglacial landscape failure are not limited to the failure area. A key proposal objective is to develop a regime diagram of the different permafrost responses as a function of landscape and climatic characteristics. The models from this objective will enable the development of hazard maps of periglacial landscapes. A second major objective is the development of a practical interactive digital tool that applies the predictive hazard maps to provide instantaneous risk assessments. For example, through this application, water agencies can quantify vulnerability to sediment bombardment from land failures, fisheries can extract probabilities for increased sediment delivery and metal leaching, and natural disaster agencies can estimate the regional extents and infrastructure that are most vulnerable to permafrost landscape collapse. With user input, the application can further help test and improve the accuracy of the models. This proposal will use field observations with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution from Axel Heiberg Island, novel computational physical models, data science and traditional knowledge to characterize, understand, and disseminate emerging hazards and critical risks of these summer warming events.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

大约 85% 的阿拉斯加景观、一半以上的阿拉斯加社区、75% 的阿拉斯加管道和 80% 的阿拉斯加国有道路都位于冰缘土地上，这是一个经历季节性冻融循环的活跃土壤层，由更深的称为永久冻土的冻结层支撑。全球变暖加速了永久冻土的融化、变薄和弱化，这引发了人们对冰缘景观稳定性和关键基础设施可持续性的担忧。此外，冰缘环境中的地表破坏可能会给脆弱的当地和沿海流域生态带来大量沉积物、金属和细菌，并向大气中释放温室气体。政府和行业应对气候变化的一个重要组成部分是管理冰缘地区永久冻土前所未有的危害的工具。 Culha 博士将描述这些工具的基本物理原理。一个目标是创建模型来预测冰缘对快速、强烈变暖（如季节性热浪）的不同类型的反应。第二个目标是开发一种新颖的交互式应用程序，可以支持国家和地方北极社区领导人快速应对永久冻土，并利用社区的投入来训练和增强她的模型。2019 年 7 月，这是有记录以来最热的天气之一，合作者记录了 100 米宽的“倒退解冻塌陷”，这是对快速、强烈变暖的前所未有的冰缘景观响应。这个马蹄形 此后，景观破坏从融化的永久冻土中形成了一条溪流，将淤泥水输送到附近的流域。逆向解冻塌陷和排水事件等景观破坏不仅会对道路、石油管道和学校等关键基础设施造成风险，而且可能对加拿大北极地区和阿拉斯加部分地区土著居民的可持续发展造成风险。这些风险也可能导致这些本土 如果失败导致淡水资源堵塞、渔业受损和生态栖息地改变，则人口需要重新安置或重建。此外，景观破坏事件与永久冻土层中的气体、金属、营养物和病原体释放到生态系统有关。因此，冰缘景观破坏的影响不仅限于破坏区域。一个关键的提案目标是开发不同的体系图 永久冻土响应作为景观和气候特征的函数。该目标的模型将使冰缘景观灾害图的开发成为可能。第二个主要目标是开发实用的交互式数字工具，应用预测危险地图来提供即时风险评估。例如，通过此应用程序，水务机构可以量化土地退化造成的沉积物轰击的脆弱性，渔业可以提取增加的概率 沉积物输送和金属浸出以及自然灾害机构可以估计最容易遭受永久冻土景观崩溃的区域范围和基础设施。通过用户输入，该应用程序可以进一步帮助测试和提高模型的准确性。该提案将利用阿克塞尔海伯格岛前所未有的空间和时间分辨率的现场观测、新颖的计算物理模型、数据科学和传统知识来表征、理解和分析 传播这些夏季变暖事件的新出现的危害和严重风险。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。