Applying Year of Polar Prediction-Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) Targeted Observing Periods to Advance Winter Numerical Weather Forecasting for the U.S. Antarctic Program

应用极地预测年 - 南半球 (YOPP-SH) 目标观测周期推进美国南极计划的冬季数值天气预报

• 批准号: 2205398
• 负责人: David Bromwich
• 金额: $ 84.44万
• 依托单位: Ohio State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-05-01 至 2025-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2205398&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Applying; Year; Polar; Prediction; Southern

The project aims to promote the progress of science and advance national interests in improved numerical weather modeling capabilities for American researchers and for the United States Antarctic Program. The effort consists of atmospheric modeling work leveraging the international Year of Polar Prediction — Southern Hemisphere program. This effort includes a field campaign component in 2022 that features enhanced observations of the Antarctic atmosphere in winter during Targeted Observing Periods. The project seeks to improve numerical weather prediction capabilities for both research applications and weather forecasting support for the US Antarctic Program. The project goals include evaluating the use of special observations to improve atmospheric modeling, determining whether the new technique is superior to existing techniques for Antarctic atmospheric simulation and weather prediction, and assess how well the model is performing in its prediction of polar clouds and precipitation. The project will advance the field by applying an unprecedented dataset gathered in an international collaboration and determining its benefit for future science and forecasting. It will also advance the field by exploring a new method for the use of such information in atmospheric models for the polar regions. The benefits are increases in knowledge, improved weather modeling, and gains in the model weather forecasting capabilities that the Antarctic Program relies on, allowing for enhanced efficiency and safety for Antarctic operations. The project will also advance education and outreach by supporting the education and professional development of a graduate student along with interactive exposure of diverse audiences to the challenging task of weather modeling and prediction for the remote Southern Ocean and Antarctic regions.This project focuses on the value of special observations for improving Antarctic atmospheric simulation and weather prediction, and evaluate how the model performs in predicting polar clouds and precipitation. Specifically, within the Year of Polar Prediction — Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) framework, this project has four aspects. First, the team will identify candidate Targeted Observing Periods (TOPs) from East Antarctica to the Ross Sea. Second, the dataset of special YOPP-SH radiosonde launches made in the TOPs will be assimilated into model experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is run in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), the numerical weather prediction capability for USAP. These data assimilation experiments will apply the AMPS framework to determine the impact of the observations on predictions of major weather events affecting the US Antarctic Program (USAP) McMurdo and Palmer Stations, and to identify the governing processes. Third, a new data assimilation capability for the WRF Model— Multi-Resolution Incremental 4DVAR (MRI-4DVAR) —is being tested in these data impact experiments to determine its effectiveness for real-time use in AMPS and thus for possible future implementation as well as for research modeling. Fourth, cloud and precipitation observations collected during the TOPs at Davis and Vernadsky Stations will be applied to analyses of the WRF simulations to assess model weaknesses. This project aims to enhance WRF’s handling of clouds and precipitation to improve parameterization. The goal is to increase the accuracy of AMPS forecasts for USAP operations and to improve the WRF model for the research community. This project will ultimately promote the progress of science and advance national interests in improved numerical weather modeling capabilities for American researchers and for USAP.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目旨在促进科学进步，提高美国研究人员和美国南极计划改进数值天气模型能力的国家利益。这项工作包括利用国际极地预测年-南半球计划的大气建模工作。这项工作包括2022年的实地活动部分，其特点是在有针对性的观察期内加强对冬季南极大气的观测。该项目旨在提高数值天气预报能力，为美国南极计划的研究应用和天气预报提供支持。该项目的目标包括评估使用特殊观测来改进大气建模，确定新技术是否优于南极大气模拟和天气预报的现有技术，以及评估该模型在极地云和降水预测方面的表现。该项目将应用在国际合作中收集的史无前例的数据集，并确定其对未来科学和预测的好处，从而推动该领域的发展。它还将通过探索在极地地区大气模型中使用这种信息的新方法来推动该领域的发展。好处是增加了知识，改进了天气模拟，并增加了南极计划所依赖的模拟天气预报能力，从而提高了南极作业的效率和安全性。该项目还将通过支持研究生的教育和专业发展以及让不同的受众互动地接触遥远的南大洋和南极地区的天气模拟和预报这一具有挑战性的任务来促进教育和推广。该项目侧重于特别观测对改进南极大气模拟和天气预报的价值，并评估该模式在预测极地云和降水方面的表现。具体地说，在极地预测-南半球年(YOPP-SH)框架内，该项目有四个方面。首先，该团队将确定从南极洲东部到罗斯海的候选目标观察期(TOP)。其次，使用南极中尺度预报系统(AMPS)中运行的天气研究和预报(WRF)模式将在TOP中制作的特殊YOPP-SH无线电探空仪发射的数据集同化到模式试验中，该模式是USAP的数值天气预报能力。这些数据同化实验将应用AMPS框架来确定观测对影响美国南极计划(USAP)McMurdo和Palmer站的主要天气事件预报的影响，并确定主导过程。第三，WRF模式的一种新的数据同化能力--多分辨率增量4DVAR(MRI-4DVAR)--正在这些数据影响实验中测试，以确定其在AMPS中实时使用的有效性，从而确定其在未来可能的实施以及研究建模中的有效性。第四，在Davis和Vernadsky站的顶部收集的云和降水观测将用于WRF模拟的分析，以评估模式的弱点。该项目旨在加强WRF对云和降水的处理，以改善参数化。其目标是提高USAP业务AMPS预测的准确性，并改进研究界的WRF模型。该项目最终将促进科学的进步，并在提高美国研究人员和美国宇航局的数值天气模拟能力方面促进国家利益。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。