Identifying pathways to mitigate the negative impact of urbanization trends on croplands

确定减轻城市化趋势对农田负面影响的途径

• 批准号: 2214604
• 负责人: Patricio Grassini
• 金额: $ 50万
• 依托单位: University of Nebraska-Lincoln
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2026-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2214604&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Identifying; pathways; mitigate; negative; impact

The United States (U.S.) and China accounted for 40 percent of the global increase in urban area during the past three decades. Through this process, urbanization has appropriated millions of hectares of cropland. The overall objective of this project is to identify pathways to reconcile urban growth with crop production, while minimizing negative environmental footprint. The central hypothesis is that current trajectories in urbanization are fostering cropland expansion into less-productive marginal environments and promoting unsustainable crop yield gains on existing cropland, both leading to higher negative environmental impact. Specific aims are to (i) quantify long-term trends in converted land (that was previously cropland and has changed to urban use) and new cropland (due to expansion of cropland on acres not previously used for crops) for key staple crops in U.S. and China, (ii) estimate potential productivity and environmental footprint associated with converted and new cropland for each crop, and (iii) explore future scenarios of land-use change, crop production, and environmental impact for different trajectories of urbanization, intensification, and climate change. To accomplish these aims, remote sensing data will be used to investigate spatio-temporal trends in urbanization and associated changes in planted area for key staple crops in the U.S. and China, coupled with crop modeling and climate and soil datasets to estimate the potential productivity and environmental footprint of the converted and new cropland. The research will provide an assessment of urbanization impact on area and production of key staple crops in each country and evaluate pathways to reconcile urban growth with crop production via better land-use planning and sustainable crop intensification in a context of changing climate and increasing food demand.Through an approach that combines use of remote sensing, crop modeling, and spatial analysis, the project will contribute in-depth understanding of current crop-specific dynamics in cropland conversion for urban uses and the productivity and environmental footprint associated with the converted and new cropland. It will also provide insights on the available room to mitigate these impacts via sustainable crop intensification on existing cropland. Findings from this study will serve as a foundation for future regional studies assessing interactions between urbanization, food production, and environmental impact. From a broader perspective, the research will increase the scientific knowledge for regional modeling of agro-ecosystems and improve current capability to inform land-use policy and prioritize agricultural research and development programs for more sustainable urban-rural interactions. U.S. and Chinese researchers with diverse racial and gender backgrounds will work under the umbrella of this project. Several dissemination activities will be conducted to communicate the research findings to the public, aiming to increase societal awareness about urban expansion and the concomitant need to protect croplands, which, ultimately, can help the U.S., China, and the rest of the world meet the goal of improving food security and economic development while protecting natural resources.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在过去30年里，美国和中国占全球城市面积增长的40%。在这一过程中，城市化占用了数百万公顷的耕地。该项目的总体目标是确定协调城市发展与作物生产的途径，同时最大限度地减少负面环境足迹。核心假设是，目前的城市化轨迹正在促进农田向生产力较低的边缘环境扩张，并促进现有农田不可持续的作物产量增长，两者都会导致更大的负面环境影响。具体目标是(i)量化美国和中国主要主要作物的转换土地（以前是农田，现在改为城市用途）和新农田（由于以前未用于作物的农田面积的扩大）的长期趋势，（ii）估计每种作物的转换和新农田相关的潜在生产力和环境足迹，以及（iii）探索土地利用变化、作物生产的未来情景。以及不同城市化、集约化和气候变化轨迹对环境的影响。为了实现这些目标，遥感数据将用于调查美国和中国城市化的时空趋势和主要作物种植面积的相关变化，并结合作物模型和气候和土壤数据集来估计转换和新农田的潜在生产力和环境足迹。该研究将评估城市化对每个国家主要主要作物面积和产量的影响，并评估在气候变化和粮食需求增加的背景下，通过更好的土地利用规划和可持续作物集约化来协调城市增长与作物生产的途径。通过将遥感、作物建模和空间分析相结合的方法，该项目将有助于深入了解当前农田转化为城市用途的特定作物动态，以及与转化和新农田相关的生产力和环境足迹。它还将提供通过对现有农田进行可持续作物集约化来减轻这些影响的可用空间的见解。本研究的结果将为未来评估城市化、粮食生产和环境影响之间相互作用的区域研究奠定基础。从更广泛的角度来看，该研究将增加农业生态系统区域建模的科学知识，提高现有能力，为土地利用政策提供信息，并优先考虑农业研发计划，以实现更可持续的城乡互动。具有不同种族和性别背景的美国和中国研究人员将在这个项目的保护伞下工作。我们将开展一系列的宣传活动，向公众传播研究成果，旨在提高社会对城市扩张和随之而来的农田保护需求的认识，最终帮助美国、中国和世界其他国家实现在保护自然资源的同时提高粮食安全和经济发展的目标。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。