Sex Estimation in Forensic Anthropology: Taking a Legally-Informed Approach to Method Development

法医人类学中的性别估计：采用法律知情的方法开发方法

• 批准号: 2214747
• 负责人: Kate Lesciotto
• 金额: $ 30.31万
• 依托单位: University of North Texas Health Science Center at Fort Worth
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-15 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2214747&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Sex; Estimation; Forensic; Anthropology; Taking

The goal of forensic anthropology is to assist in medicolegal investigations, typically involving decomposed or skeletal remains. When the remains belong to an unidentified decedent, the first step is to construct a “biological profile,” in which the estimation of sex is a crucial component. Accuracy in sex estimation increases when both metric (e.g., the length of a bone) and morphological (e.g., the shape of a bone) data are used and when multiple skeletal elements are assessed. There are currently no methods for sex estimation that meet both of these criteria. Forensic anthropologists are often called upon to testify in legal proceedings and provide expert evidence; however, the field of forensic anthropology lacks an assessment of how sex estimation methods have been evaluated when the admissibility of such evidence is challenged, resulting in little guidance on which methods forensic anthropologists should use and how to develop improved methods. There are currently 13,885 individuals listed as “unidentified” in the National Missing and Unidentified Persons System, including 796 individuals for whom sex is listed as “unsure.” This research will produce a new method for sex estimation that meets legal admissibility standards and additionally can accommodate the wide range of remains that are recovered (e.g., only a skull versus a complete skeleton), with the ultimate goal of reducing the number of unidentified bodies in the United States.This project will combine metric and morphological data from multiple skeletal elements into a single prediction model that will satisfy key legal considerations during evidentiary challenges, while improving accuracy and reliability. A framework for method development will be created that incorporates (1) legal perspectives on the admissibility of expert witness evidence and (2) forensic anthropology perspectives on methods of sex estimation to reduce barriers for adopting a new method. Using this framework, skeletal data will be collected and integrated into a prediction model, using the novel Mixed Cumulative Probit algorithm, and will be disseminated as a free, open-access web-based graphical user interface available to all forensic anthropologists. This innovative approach will result in a single, statistically valid sex estimation method that can accommodate both continuous and ordinal data, conditional dependence, heteroskedasticity, and missing data and therefore be used in the vast majority of forensic anthropology casework. By using legal admissibility criteria as guidelines, the resulting model will also be robust to evidentiary challenges.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

法医人类学的目标是协助法医学调查，通常涉及分解或骨骼遗骸。如果遗骸属于身份不明的死者，第一步是建立一个“生物档案”，其中性别的估计是一个关键组成部分。当两个度量（例如，骨的长度）和形态学（例如，骨骼的形状）数据并且当评估多个骨骼元素时。目前还没有同时满足这两个标准的性别估计方法。法医人类学家经常被要求在法律的诉讼中作证并提供专家证据;然而，法医人类学领域缺乏对性别估计方法的评估，当这种证据的可接受性受到质疑时，导致法医人类学家应该使用哪些方法以及如何开发改进的方法。目前有13，885人在国家失踪和身份不明人员系统中被列为“身份不明”，其中796人的性别被列为“不确定”。这项研究将产生一种新的性别估计方法，该方法符合法律的可接受性标准，并且还可以适应被回收的各种遗骸（例如，只有头骨对完整的骨架），最终目标是减少美国不明身份尸体的数量。该项目将把来自多个骨骼元素的联合收割机度量和形态数据结合成一个单一的预测模型，在证据质疑期间满足关键的法律的考虑，同时提高准确性和可靠性。将建立一个方法开发框架，其中包括（1）关于专家证人证据可接受性的法律的观点和（2）关于性别估计方法的法医人类学观点，以减少采用新方法的障碍。使用这一框架，将收集骨骼数据，并使用新的混合累积概率算法将其整合到预测模型中，并将作为免费、开放访问的基于网络的图形用户界面向所有法医人类学家传播。这种创新的方法将导致一个单一的，统计上有效的性别估计方法，可以容纳连续和有序的数据，条件依赖，异方差性，和缺失的数据，因此被用于绝大多数法医人类学的案例工作。通过使用法律的受理标准作为指导方针，由此产生的模型也将是强大的证据的挑战。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。