Collaborative Research: Cooperation in Multi-Dyadic Civil Conflicts

合作研究：多元民事冲突中的合作

• 批准号: 2215024
• 负责人: Alyssa Prorok
• 金额: $ 27.3万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-08-01 至 2025-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2215024&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Cooperation; Multi; Dyadic

Civil conflicts impose significant human, economic, and political costs on the countries involved and the broader regions affected. This is particularly true when conflicts involve multiple rebel groups (i.e., multi-dyadic conflicts). This project advances knowledge of multi-dyadic civil conflict dynamics and resolution by evaluating how government-rebel cooperation shapes opportunities for conflict resolution and violence reduction. It contributes to ongoing debates among policymakers and scholars about the dynamics of war and the nature and sustainability of post-conflict peace, speaking to fundamental questions of national security and the prosperity and welfare of countries currently embroiled in civil conflicts around the world. The project provides novel cross-country data compatible with leading civil war datasets, providing a valuable tool to advance cutting-edge research on civil conflict. Moreover, The project also provides training and mentorship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students. Understanding the dynamics of cooperation between adversaries will improve evaluation and forecasting of (in)stability. The PIs integrative approach to cooperation provides insights into when cooperation signals meaningful shifts in conflict dynamics and prospects for long-term peace.The project involves three central aims: (1) to create a comprehensive dataset on cooperation between combatants in multi-dyadic civil wars, (2) to assess the impact of past cooperation on future cooperation and conflict resolution, and (3) to evaluate the impact of past cooperation on future conflict. To achieve aim 1, the PIs create the Cooperation in Civil War: Multi-Dyadic Conflicts Dataset (CCW-MC). CCW-MC covers 12 countries that have experienced the most complex civil conflicts in the post-cold war period. These novel data will capture the full evolution of dyadic cooperation from initial requests to final implementation. Using these data, the PIs test novel theoretical expectations (aims 2 and 3) about how the legacies of past cooperative attempts, both within a government-rebel group dyad and gleaned from observing other dyads in the country, influence subsequent cooperative and conflictual outcomes. Using network analysis, the PIs examine the influence of other active rebel groups on this evolution of cooperation and conflict. By engaging with the multi-dyadic context of these civil wars, the project explicitly takes each dyad's context into consideration when theorizing about and evaluating the role of cooperation. This project addresses a critical gap by examining the evolution of cooperation within and across government-rebel group dyads in multi-dyadic civil conflicts. It will provide novel insights into how cooperation diffuses across dyads, how past attempts at cooperation influence subsequent cooperative efforts, and how cooperation of one form influences subsequent cooperation of another form. The project advances research on conflict management and settlement by treating cooperation as an iterative process that reveals unique information about combatant credibility that cannot be revealed on the battlefield.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

国内冲突给所涉国家和更广泛的受影响地区带来巨大的人力、经济和政治代价。当冲突涉及多个反叛团体（即，多二元冲突）。该项目通过评估政府-反叛分子合作如何形成解决冲突和减少暴力的机会，增进了对多元国内冲突动态和解决办法的了解。它有助于决策者和学者之间就战争的动态以及冲突后和平的性质和可持续性进行持续的辩论，谈到目前世界各地卷入国内冲突的国家的国家安全和繁荣与福利的基本问题。该项目提供了与主要内战数据集兼容的新型跨国数据，为推进关于国内冲突的前沿研究提供了宝贵的工具。此外，该项目还为本科生和研究生提供培训和指导机会。了解对手之间的合作动态将改善对（不）稳定性的评估和预测。国际和平研究所的综合合作方法提供了深入的见解，以了解合作何时标志着冲突动态和长期和平前景的有意义的转变。该项目涉及三个中心目标：（1）创建一个关于多对内战中战斗人员之间合作的综合数据集，（2）评估过去的合作对未来合作和解决冲突的影响，（3）评估过去的合作对未来冲突的影响。为了实现目标1，PI创建了内战合作：多二元冲突数据集（CCW-MC）。《特定常规武器公约》-监测委员会涵盖了12个在冷战后经历了最复杂的国内冲突的国家。这些新的数据将捕捉到从最初的请求到最终实施的二元合作的全面演变。使用这些数据，PI测试新的理论期望（目标2和3），关于过去的合作尝试的遗产，无论是在政府-反叛团体二元结构内，还是从观察该国其他二元结构中收集到的，影响随后的合作和冲突结果。通过网络分析，PI研究了其他活跃的反叛团体对合作与冲突演变的影响。通过参与这些内战的多元背景，该项目在理论化和评估合作的作用时明确考虑到每个二元背景。该项目通过审查在多个二元国内冲突中政府-反叛团体二元体内部和之间合作的演变来解决一个关键的差距。它将提供新的见解，合作如何在二对体之间扩散，过去的合作尝试如何影响随后的合作努力，以及一种形式的合作如何影响随后的另一种形式的合作。该项目通过将合作视为一个反复的过程来推进冲突管理和解决的研究，揭示了无法在战场上揭示的关于战斗员可信度的独特信息。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。