Collaborative Research: Cooperation in Multi-Dyadic Civil Conflicts

国内冲突给有关国家和更广泛的受影响地区带来了巨大的人力、经济和政治代价。当冲突涉及多个反叛团体(即多个二元冲突)时，情况尤其如此。该项目通过评估政府与叛军的合作如何创造解决冲突和减少暴力的机会，增进了对多方面国内冲突动态和解决办法的了解。它有助于政策制定者和学者就战争的动态以及冲突后和平的性质和可持续性进行持续的辩论，就国家安全以及目前在世界各地陷入国内冲突的国家的繁荣和福利等根本问题发表讲话。该项目提供了与领先的内战数据集兼容的新的跨国数据，为推进关于内战的前沿研究提供了宝贵的工具。此外，该项目还为本科生和研究生提供培训和指导机会。了解对手之间的合作动态将改善对稳定性的评估和预测。PIS综合合作方法提供了对何时合作标志着冲突动态和长期和平前景发生有意义变化的洞察。该项目涉及三个中心目标：(1)创建关于多维内战中战斗人员之间合作的综合数据集，(2)评估过去合作对未来合作和冲突解决的影响，以及(3)评估过去合作对未来冲突的影响。为了实现目标1，私人投资机构创建了内战中的合作：多并元冲突数据集(CCW-MC)。《特定常规武器公约》涵盖了冷战后经历过最复杂国内冲突的12个国家。这些新颖的数据将捕捉到从最初的请求到最终实施的两元合作的完整演变。使用这些数据，PI测试了新颖的理论预期(目标2和3)，即过去合作尝试的遗产如何影响随后的合作和冲突结果，无论是在政府-反叛组织二人组中，还是从观察该国其他二人组中收集到的。利用网络分析，私人情报员审查其他活跃的反叛团体对这种合作和冲突演变的影响。通过接触这些内战的多个二元背景，该项目在对合作的作用进行理论分析和评估时，明确考虑了每个二元背景。该项目通过审查政府内部和政府与反叛团体之间在多个二元国内冲突中合作的演变，解决了一个关键的差距。它将提供新的见解，了解合作是如何在两个部门之间传播的，过去的合作尝试如何影响随后的合作努力，以及一种形式的合作如何影响另一种形式的后续合作。该项目通过将合作视为一个迭代过程来推进冲突管理和解决的研究，该过程揭示了关于战斗人员可信度的独特信息，这些信息不能在战场上披露。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Civil conflicts impose significant human, economic, and political costs on the countries involved and the broader regions affected. This is particularly true when conflicts involve multiple rebel groups (i.e., multi-dyadic conflicts). This project advances knowledge of multi-dyadic civil conflict dynamics and resolution by evaluating how government-rebel cooperation shapes opportunities for conflict resolution and violence reduction. It contributes to ongoing debates among policymakers and scholars about the dynamics of war and the nature and sustainability of post-conflict peace, speaking to fundamental questions of national security and the prosperity and welfare of countries currently embroiled in civil conflicts around the world. The project provides novel cross-country data compatible with leading civil war datasets, providing a valuable tool to advance cutting-edge research on civil conflict. Moreover, The project also provides training and mentorship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students. Understanding the dynamics of cooperation between adversaries will improve evaluation and forecasting of (in)stability. The PIs integrative approach to cooperation provides insights into when cooperation signals meaningful shifts in conflict dynamics and prospects for long-term peace.The project involves three central aims: (1) to create a comprehensive dataset on cooperation between combatants in multi-dyadic civil wars, (2) to assess the impact of past cooperation on future cooperation and conflict resolution, and (3) to evaluate the impact of past cooperation on future conflict. To achieve aim 1, the PIs create the Cooperation in Civil War: Multi-Dyadic Conflicts Dataset (CCW-MC). CCW-MC covers 12 countries that have experienced the most complex civil conflicts in the post-cold war period. These novel data will capture the full evolution of dyadic cooperation from initial requests to final implementation. Using these data, the PIs test novel theoretical expectations (aims 2 and 3) about how the legacies of past cooperative attempts, both within a government-rebel group dyad and gleaned from observing other dyads in the country, influence subsequent cooperative and conflictual outcomes. Using network analysis, the PIs examine the influence of other active rebel groups on this evolution of cooperation and conflict. By engaging with the multi-dyadic context of these civil wars, the project explicitly takes each dyad's context into consideration when theorizing about and evaluating the role of cooperation. This project addresses a critical gap by examining the evolution of cooperation within and across government-rebel group dyads in multi-dyadic civil conflicts. It will provide novel insights into how cooperation diffuses across dyads, how past attempts at cooperation influence subsequent cooperative efforts, and how cooperation of one form influences subsequent cooperation of another form. The project advances research on conflict management and settlement by treating cooperation as an iterative process that reveals unique information about combatant credibility that cannot be revealed on the battlefield.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.