NNA Research: Collaborative Research: Rapid Arctic change and its implications for fisheries and fishing communities of the western North Atlantic

导航新北极（NNA）是美国国家科学基金会的十大构想之一。NNA项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。这项北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。NNA支持从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，加强正式和非正式教育的努力，并在适当情况下整合知识的共同生产。该奖项通过在以下NNA重点领域解决社会系统和自然环境之间的相互作用来实现这一目标：数据和观测、教育、预测、全球影响和弹性基础设施。北极快速变暖正在改变北大西洋的环流。由此导致的海洋生态系统的变化可能会破坏新英格兰和加拿大大西洋沿岸的区域渔业。这些变化将给沿海社区带来新的挑战和机遇。这个NNA研究项目的重点是北极变化与标志性的美国龙虾渔业之间的联系。龙虾渔业是北美最有价值的单一物种渔业。它也是一个被充分研究的社会生态系统，使其成为收敛研究的一个很好的主题。该项目建立了一个基于跨部门和跨境伙伴关系的NNA龙虾网络。该项目开发了一项气候脆弱性评估，重点是在变暖的海洋中龙虾的地理范围向北转移。该项目正在产生新的知识，以了解气候引起的北极变化、低纬度海洋生态系统和西北大西洋标志性渔业之间的联系。这个合作项目测试了两个主要的假设：(1)气候驱动的北极变化将影响美国龙虾种群的分布和丰富程度；(2)渔业和沿海社区的恢复能力将依赖于准确的信息来做出决定。海洋学家和生态学家研究自然环境，建立了一个耦合的大气-冰-海洋-生态系统模式。该模型评估了北极冰冻圈和海洋环流的变化如何影响西北大西洋低纬度地区的生态系统和渔业生产力。模型输出使用现有的现场数据集进行验证，其中一些数据集是由渔业共同制作的。改进后的预测模型被用于龙虾种群分布的预测和情景分析。通过发展渔业船队的生物经济模型和评估渔业的经济依赖，研究了社会系统。NNA龙虾网络使人们对过去和未来气候和管理情景下不同尺度的自然、生物和社会经济条件有了更广泛的了解。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. This Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, enhances efforts in formal and informal education, and integrates the co-production of knowledge where appropriate. This award fulfills part of that aim by addressing interactions among social systems and the natural environment in the following NNA focus areas: Data and Observation, Education, Forecasting, Global Impact, and Resilient Infrastructure.Rapid Arctic warming is altering circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. Resulting changes in marine ecosystems could potentially undermine regional fisheries along the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada. These changes will present new challenges and opportunities to coastal communities. This NNA Research project focuses on links between Arctic change and the iconic American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery. The lobster fishery is the most valuable single-species fishery in North America. It is also a well-studied socio-ecological system, making it a good subject for convergence research. The project builds a NNA Lobster Network based on cross-sector and cross-border partnerships. The project develops a climate vulnerability assessment focused on the northward geographic range shifts of lobsters in a warming ocean. This project is producing new knowledge to understand the links among climate-induced Arctic change, lower latitude marine ecosystems, and an iconic fishery in the Northwest Atlantic. This collaborative project tests two overarching hypotheses: (1) climate-driven Arctic change will affect the distribution and abundance of American lobster stocks, and (2) the resilience of the fishing industry and coastal communities will depend on accurate information to make decisions. The natural environment is studied by oceanographers and ecologists developing a coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean-ecosystem model. This model evaluates how changes in the Arctic cryosphere and ocean circulation affect ecosystem and fishery productivity at the lower latitudes of the Northwest Atlantic. Model outputs are validated using existing field datasets, some of which are co-produced by the fishing industry. Improved predictive models resulting from this effort are used for forecasts and scenario analysis of lobster population distribution. Social systems are studied through development of a bio-economic model of the fishing fleet and evaluation of the economic reliance of the fishery. The NNA Lobster Network leads to a broadened understanding of physical, biological and socio-economic conditions at varying scales of interest under past and future climate and management scenarios.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.