Collaborative Research: BoCP Implementation: Using the Past to Predict the Future: How Physiology and other Functional Traits Determine Survival/Extinction in W. Atlantic Mollusks

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Clams and snails, known as mollusks, are abundant and diverse along the eastern seaboard of the United States. They are important indicators of ocean health and provide substantial food sources for humans. Many of the species, or their close relatives, are also known as fossils that extend back more than 3 million years. Using analysis of the characteristics of modern and fossil mollusks, along with experiments, the project will investigate which features of mollusks made them most likely to survive as ocean conditions changed over the last several million years. The information will be combined with computer modelling to predict which species will survive and which will go extinct in the future. Outreach will be provided to K-12 students, and students at several levels will receive scientific training. A physical and online museum exhibit on mollusks will be created, and data about them will be shared online. The work will use fossil and modern mollusks from the western Atlantic region to develop a predictive framework for which species will survive and which will go extinct in the next few centuries. This is important because several species provide significant food resources to humans. The work will examine key functional traits associated with long term species survival, including physiological variables such as metabolic rate, which is strongly influenced by ocean conditions, and a highly significant predictor of extinction probability in marine mollusks over the last three million years. Experimental studies also will be performed to determine the relationship between mollusk physiology and ocean conditions. In addition, ecological niche modeling will be used to place past and predicted future species distributions in the context of past and forecasted future marine conditions. All this work will be done to develop a predictive framework for understanding the past and quantifying the future of this biota. Outreach and education will be provided to K-12 students in several locations. Several undergraduate and graduate students, and post-doctoral scholars will receive research training. A physical and online museum exhibit on mollusks will be created, and data on the stratigraphic and geographic occurrence of mollusk species will be shared online.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.