Collaborative Research: BoCP-Design US-Sao Paulo: Land use change, ecosystem resilience and zoonotic spillover risk

栖息地的丧失影响动植物的丰度、组成和生态。这些变化影响物种如何相互作用，导致生态功能和服务的变化，包括病原体从动物传播给人类（称为人畜共患溢出）。巴西大西洋森林具有丰富的生物多样性，包括啮齿类动物的多样性，这些啮齿类动物也被认为是病原体的宿主。正因为如此，该地区是未来新发传染病的潜在热点。大西洋森林有一个动态的森林覆盖，每年有数千公顷的森林被砍伐和恢复。这些动态使该地区成为研究景观变化对小型哺乳动物群落的影响及其对病原体向人类传播的影响的理想场所。该研究旨在了解景观变化导致的生物多样性重组如何影响人类健康。该研究将增加对景观变化、生物多样性丧失、功能多样性变化和溢出风险之间相互作用的认识。此外，它还将提供信息，以划定维持和创造景观的政策和准则，从而保护生物多样性并提供提供健康的生态系统服务。结果将传达给利益攸关方，包括非政府组织、政府、研究人员和当地社区。此外，提高认识讲座将使社区了解土地变化与传染病之间的关系，以减少溢出风险并预防未来的大流行病。人畜共患疾病的特点是多物种及其环境之间复杂的相互作用。正因为如此，它们预计会受到景观特征的影响。研究的目标有两个：1)了解生境丧失和景观结构对功能多样性、病毒多样性、网络构成和人畜共患病溢出风险的影响；2)了解森林恢复如何恢复功能多样性、生态系统恢复力和提供疾病调节服务。对于第一个目标，研究人员将使用二次数据来建立啮齿动物-病原体（病毒多样性）网络，以了解森林覆盖和景观结构如何影响溢出风险。结果将被外推到整个大西洋森林，形成一个溢出风险地图，帮助决策者和利益相关者制定政策和指导方针。目标2将以原始数据收集为基础。研究人员将评估森林恢复对小哺乳动物物种丰富度的恢复、功能多样性的恢复、相互作用网络组成（小哺乳动物和病原体网络）的重建以及溢出风险的降低的影响。最后，评估景观结构和修复年龄对病害调节功能恢复的影响。这项研究将通过开发工具来预测土地利用变化（包括森林恢复）对复杂网络和人畜共患病溢出风险的影响，从而提高对疾病生态学的认识。了解土地利用变化对外溢风险的影响至关重要，因为人畜共患疾病具有复杂的传播周期，涉及对景观变化作出不同反应的病原体。了解恢复如何影响病毒多样性和人畜共患病风险对于制定双赢战略至关重要，以确保人类和动物的健康景观，并避免新的流行病和大流行。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Habitat loss affects plant and animal abundance, composition, and ecology. These changes affect how species interact, leading to changes in ecological function and services, including the transmission of pathogens from animals to humans (called zoonotic spillover). The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is rich in biodiversity, including diverse populations of rodents also considered reservoirs for pathogens. Because of this, the area is a potential hotspot for future emerging infectious diseases. The Atlantic Forest has a dynamic forest cover with thousands of hectares experiencing deforestation and restoration yearly. These dynamics make the area ideal for studying the effects of landscape changes on small mammal communities and their impact on the transmission of pathogens to humans. The research aims to understand how the reorganization of biodiversity due to landscape changes affects human health. This research will increase knowledge on the interactions between landscape change, biodiversity loss, functional diversity change, and spillover risk. In addition, it will provide information to delineate policies and guidelines to maintain and create landscapes, which can conserve biodiversity and deliver health-provisioning ecosystem services. Results will be communicated to stakeholders, including NGOs, governments, researchers, and local communities. In addition, awareness talks will inform communities about the relationship between land change and infectious diseases to decrease spillover risk and prevent future pandemics. Zoonotic diseases are characterized by complex interactions between multiple species and their environment. Because of this, they are expected to be affected by landscape characteristics. The research has two objectives: 1) To understand how habitat loss and landscape structure affect functional diversity, viral diversity, network composition, and zoonotic spillover risk; and 2) To understand how forest restoration can reinstate functional diversity, ecosystem resilience, and the provision of disease regulation services. For the first objective, the researchers will use secondary data to establish rodent-pathogen (viral diversity) networks to understand how forest cover and landscape structure affect spillover risk. Results will be extrapolated to the entire Atlantic Forest, creating a spillover risk map that will help policymakers and stakeholders to create policies and guidelines. Objective 2 will be based on primary data collection. The researchers will evaluate the effect of forest restoration on the recovery of small mammal species richness, the recovery of functional diversity, the reestablishment of interaction network composition (small mammals and pathogen networks), and the reduction of spillover risk. Finally, the influence of landscape structure and the restoration age on the recovery of the disease regulation services will be assessed. This research will advance the knowledge on disease ecology by developing tools for predicting the effects of land-use change, including forest restoration, on complex networks and zoonotic spillover risk. Knowledge of the effects of land-use change on spillover risk is essential, as zoonotic diseases have complex transmission cycles involving agents that respond differently to landscape changes. Understanding how restoration affects viral diversity and zoonotic risk is critical to developing win-win strategies to ensure healthy landscapes for humans and animals and to avoid new epidemics and pandemics.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.