EAGER: Progressive Derecho Initiation and Propagation in Specific Physical Corridors as Determined by Mesoscale D-PSI Vectors

EAGER：由中尺度 D-PSI 向量确定的特定物理走廊中的渐进 Derecho 启动和传播

• 批准号: 2231695
• 负责人: Michael Kaplan
• 金额: $ 17.67万
• 依托单位: Nevada System of Higher Education, Desert Research Institute
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2231695&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAGER; Progressive; Derecho; Initiation; Propagation

Derechos are one of the atmosphere’s most destructive phenomena. These windstorms are associated with a rapidly moving, massive and growing group of thunderstorms that can last for 10 or more hours and travel well over 600 miles. They are typically accompanied by wind gusts of more than 65 mph as well as damaging lightning, flooding rain, large hail, and even small tornados. They adversely impact agriculture, transportation, and urban safety. A recent derecho in the midwestern U.S. resulted in more than 11 billion dollars of property damage and several fatalities from wind gusts greater than 140 mph. Presently, we do not often predict the intensity, location, and duration of the most devastating derechos nor do we consistently differentiate between the strong and weak derechos only hours in advance. This project will create new technology based on scientific theories and computer visualizations in 4 dimensions to improve the prediction of this damaging phenomenon. The new technology will be available to operational government and private weather forecasters in the form of computer-generated predictions of the atmospheric conditions that are most likely to create derechos. This will potentially enable more accurate prediction of derechos farther in advance than we presently can do thus saving lives and reducing property damage.Presently, operational computer predictions of derechos suffer from a lack of proper synthesis of the precursor physical environment to derecho genesis and motion. The research approach to be undertaken synthesizes many more of the physical conditions that are likely to create long lasting and devastating derechos than has been done before. The larger scale organization of the strong thunderstorms that comprise derechos is the result of the jet stream and unique atmospheric frontal systems that are most likely to occur during extreme heat waves. The theory to be tested represents a unique synthesis of physical processes not previously applied to derechos in either the operational or research environments. Also, the complexity of these physics requires innovative 4-dimensional computer visualization techniques so that operational weather forecasters can understand the many nonlinear processes that have to properly phase to produce derechos. The goal is to substantially improve the reliability of the synthesis of operational computational fluid model predictions of a favorable derecho environment for forecasters and thus extend for the public the lead time of warnings of these devastating windstorms.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

Derechos是大气中最具破坏性的现象之一。这些风暴与快速移动，大规模和不断增长的雷暴群有关，这些雷暴可以持续10个小时或更长时间，行程超过600英里。它们通常伴随着时速超过65英里的阵风以及破坏性的闪电，洪水，大冰雹，甚至小龙卷风。它们对农业、交通和城市安全产生不利影响。最近在美国中西部发生的一次飓风造成了超过110亿美元的财产损失，风速超过每小时140英里的阵风造成了几人死亡。目前，我们并不经常预测最具破坏性的derechos的强度，位置和持续时间，也不总是提前几个小时区分强和弱derechos。该项目将创建基于科学理论和计算机可视化的新技术，以改善对这种破坏性现象的预测。这项新技术将以计算机生成的大气条件预测的形式提供给政府和私人天气预报员，这些预测最有可能产生derechos。这将有可能比我们目前能够做的更提前更准确地预测derecho，从而拯救生命并减少财产损失。目前，derecho的操作计算机预测缺乏对derecho起源和运动的前体物理环境的适当合成。要采取的研究方法综合了比以前更多的可能产生持久和破坏性权利的物理条件。包括derechos的强雷暴的较大规模组织是急流和最有可能在极端热浪期间发生的独特大气锋面系统的结果。要测试的理论代表了一个独特的合成物理过程，以前没有适用于derechos在操作或研究环境。此外，这些物理学的复杂性需要创新的四维计算机可视化技术，以便业务天气预报员可以理解许多非线性过程，这些过程必须适当地相位以产生derechos。其目标是大大提高业务计算流体模型预测的一个有利的derecho环境的预报员的合成的可靠性，从而为公众延长这些破坏性的风暴预警的提前时间。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。