Collaborative Research: Assessing the Causal Influence of Atmospheric Opacity and Sea Ice on Arctic Warming in a Novel Circulation-controlled Framework
合作研究:在新型环流控制框架中评估大气不透明度和海冰对北极变暖的因果影响
基本信息
- 批准号:2233421
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 16.1万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2023
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2023-08-01 至 2026-07-31
- 项目状态:未结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Over the last 40 years, the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on the planet. This greater-than-global Arctic warming is projected to continue with lasting impacts on human populations, ecosystems, and infrastructure. While the fundamental mechanisms that lead to greater-than-global Arctic warming are known, the mechanisms controlling the magnitude of Arctic warming are harder to constrain. This project is a focused effort on what has and will control Arctic warming from 1980 to 2060. By specifying aspects of the atmospheric conditions that are relatively well constrained (the winds), we will better understand the importance of drivers that are harder to constrain observationally (clouds and sea ice thickness). This work will lead to transformational advances in our understanding of what does and does not control Arctic warming.This project is focused on the following research question: What is the causal influence of sea ice thickness and atmospheric opacity (i.e., clouds) on recent and near-future Arctic warming rates? This research question and associated hypotheses will be assessed in a well-established NSF-funded earth system model (Community Earth System Model, CESM) guided by observations including those from a recent year-long field campaign with substantial in situ observations (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate, MOSAiC). The central outcome will be quantifying the causal influence of two mean state properties (atmospheric opacity, sea ice thickness) on Arctic warming rates from 1980 to 2060 using a novel ‘wind-nudging’ methodology that constrains the large-scale atmospheric circulation. An inquiry-based 2-week middle-high school curriculum will be developed centered around the driving question: How might weather in your area be impacted by the Arctic? The curriculum will be reviewed by experts and disseminated through virtual teacher workshops, enabling hundreds of teachers in North America to bring current Arctic research into their classrooms. The project will also actively engage early career scientists in the research including a Ph.D. student and two summer Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) summer students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
在过去的40年里,北极比地球上任何其他地区都要变暖。这种大于全球的北极变暖预计将继续对人口、生态系统和基础设施产生持久的影响。虽然导致北极变暖幅度大于全球的基本机制是已知的,但控制北极变暖幅度的机制却更难约束。这个项目的重点是研究从1980年到2060年控制北极变暖的因素。通过指定大气条件中相对较好约束的方面(风),我们将更好地理解在观测上较难约束的驱动因素(云和海冰厚度)的重要性。这项工作将导致我们对什么能控制北极变暖以及什么不能控制北极变暖的理解的变革性进步。该项目主要关注以下研究问题:海冰厚度和大气不透明度(即云)对近期和近期北极变暖速率的因果影响是什么?这个研究问题和相关的假设将在一个完善的美国国家科学基金会资助的地球系统模型(社区地球系统模型,CESM)中进行评估,该模型由观测指导,包括最近一年的实地活动和大量的原位观测(北极气候研究多学科漂流观测站,MOSAiC)。核心结果将是量化两个平均状态属性(大气不透明度,海冰厚度)对1980年至2060年北极变暖速率的因果影响,使用一种限制大尺度大气环流的新型“风助推”方法。一个为期两周的探究式中学课程将围绕以下问题展开:你所在地区的天气将如何受到北极的影响?课程将由专家审查,并通过虚拟教师研讨会进行传播,使北美的数百名教师能够将当前的北极研究带入课堂。该项目还将积极吸引早期职业科学家参与研究,包括一名博士生和两名本科生暑期研究经验(REU)暑期学生。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命,并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估,被认为值得支持。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth其他文献
Understanding the drivers and predictability of record low Antarctic sea ice in austral winter 2023
理解 2023 年南半球冬季创纪录低南极海冰的驱动因素和可预测性
- DOI:
10.1038/s43247-024-01772-2 - 发表时间:
2024-11-20 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:8.900
- 作者:
Zachary I. Espinosa;Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth;Cecilia M. Bitz - 通讯作者:
Cecilia M. Bitz
Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth', 18)}}的其他基金
What is the impact of increasing boreal forest fires on Arctic climate and sea ice?
北方森林火灾的增加对北极气候和海冰有何影响?
- 批准号:
2337045 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 16.1万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
New perspectives on Arctic Sea Ice Variability in the 20th Century
20世纪北极海冰变化的新视角
- 批准号:
2213988 - 财政年份:2022
- 资助金额:
$ 16.1万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
RAPID: What Caused the Record Warmth and Loss of Antarctic Sea ice in the Austral Summer of 2022, and will Sea Ice Remain Low Over 2022-2024?
RAPID:是什么导致 2022 年南半球夏季南极海冰出现创纪录的变暖和损失?2022-2024 年海冰是否会保持较低水平?
- 批准号:
2233016 - 财政年份:2022
- 资助金额:
$ 16.1万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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