New perspectives on Arctic Sea Ice Variability in the 20th Century

20世纪北极海冰变化的新视角

• 批准号: 2213988
• 负责人: Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
• 金额: $ 36.99万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2213988&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: New; perspectives; Arctic; Sea; Ice

This project will further our understanding of Arctic sea ice in the 20th century and how it interacted with the atmosphere and ocean. Scientific understanding Arctic sea-ice variability is limited by the relatively short period of continuous monitoring by satellites (which covers 1979 to present) and incomplete sea ice and atmospheric observations for the first half of the 20th century. This project will produce a new, physically realistic reconstruction of Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperatures during the 20th century and use it to study Arctic sea ice during the Early 20th century Warming (ETCW), a particularly interesting period between 1915-1940 when the Arctic warmed significantly. The ETCW is a particularly interesting period, as it is well established that during 1915-1940 the Arctic warmed significantly, but reconstructions of sea-ice extent during that time do not show a realistic corresponding sea ice loss due to poor sea ice data availability. In addition, widely used 20th century reanalysis also fail to capture the ETCW in the Arctic, most likely due to the use of these sea ice reconstructions as boundary conditions. Thus, to study the ETCW and pre-satellite 20th century Arctic climate variability, one must look to other tools. This project will first create a physically consistent reconstruction of the 20th century Arctic sea ice-ocean system using a combination of nudged-circulation fully coupled earth system modeling simulations and ensemble data assimilation. Second, as the ETCW is identified as one of the largest episodes of multi-decadal Arctic climate variability in the last millennium and its mechanisms are still poorly understood, the project will investigate the mechanisms that drove the ETCW through the following research questions: what are the roles of the Atlantic and Pacific in forcing the ETCW?, and what is the role of sea ice loss in driving the ETCW? The new Arctic sea ice-ocean system reconstruction will be made available to the research community through the Arctic Data Center. The project will support an early career researcher and a graduate student.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目将进一步加深我们对世纪北极海冰及其与大气和海洋相互作用的了解。由于卫星持续监测的时间相对较短（从1979年至今），以及对世纪上半叶海冰和大气层的观测不完整，对北极海冰变化的科学了解有限。该项目将产生一个新的，物理上真实的重建北极海冰和海面温度在20世纪，并使用它来研究北极海冰在20世纪初变暖（ETCW），一个特别有趣的时期1915年至1940年之间，当北极变暖显着。ETCW是一个特别有趣的时期，因为它是公认的，在1915年至1940年期间，北极变暖显着，但在这段时间的海冰范围重建并没有显示出现实的相应海冰损失由于海冰数据的可用性差。此外，广泛使用的20世纪世纪再分析也未能捕获北极的ETCW，这很可能是由于使用这些海冰重建作为边界条件。因此，要研究ETCW和前卫星世纪北极气候变率，必须寻找其他工具。该项目将首先创建一个物理上一致的重建20世纪世纪北极海冰-海洋系统，使用轻推环流完全耦合地球系统建模模拟和集合数据同化相结合。其次，由于ETCW被认为是上个千年来最大的几十年北极气候变率事件之一，其机制仍然知之甚少，该项目将通过以下研究问题调查驱动ETCW的机制：大西洋和太平洋在强迫ETCW中的作用是什么？海冰的减少对ETCW的影响是什么？新的北极海冰-海洋系统重建将通过北极数据中心提供给研究界。该项目将支持一名早期职业研究人员和一名研究生。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Monthly Arctic Sea‐Ice Prediction With a Linear Inverse Model

使用线性逆模型进行每月北冰洋冰预测

• DOI: 10.1029/2022gl101656
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Brennan, M. Kathleen;Hakim, Gregory J.;Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward
• 通讯作者: Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward

The Impact of Winds on AMOC in a Fully‐Coupled Climate Model

全耦合气候模型中风对 AMOC 的影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2022gl101203
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Roach, Lettie A.;Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward;Ragen, Sarah;Cheng, Wei;Armour, Kyle C.;Bitz, Cecilia M.
• 通讯作者: Bitz, Cecilia M.