Collaborative Research: Assessing the Causal Influence of Atmospheric Opacity and Sea Ice on Arctic Warming in a Novel Circulation-controlled Framework

合作研究：在新型环流控制框架中评估大气不透明度和海冰对北极变暖的因果影响

• 批准号: 2233420
• 负责人: Jennifer Kay
• 金额: $ 51.3万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-08-01 至 2026-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2233420&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Assessing; Causal; Influence

Over the last 40 years, the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on the planet. This greater-than-global Arctic warming is projected to continue, with lasting impacts on human populations, ecosystems, and infrastructure. While the fundamental mechanisms that lead to greater-than-global Arctic warming are known, the mechanisms controlling the magnitude of Arctic warming are harder to constrain. This project is focused on what has and will control Arctic warming from 1980 to 2060. By specifying aspects of the atmospheric conditions that are relatively well constrained (the winds), the project team will better understand the importance of drivers that are harder to constrain observationally (clouds and sea ice thickness). This work will lead to transformational advances in our understanding of what does and does not control Arctic warming.This project is focused on the following research question: What is the causal influence of sea ice thickness and atmospheric opacity (i.e., clouds) on recent and near-future Arctic warming rates? This research question and associated hypotheses will be assessed in a well-established NSF-funded earth system model (Community Earth System Model, CESM) guided by observations including those from a recent year-long field campaign with substantial in situ observations (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate, MOSAiC). The central outcome will be quantifying the causal influence of two mean state properties (atmospheric opacity, sea ice thickness) on Arctic warming rates from 1980 to 2060 using a novel ‘wind-nudging’ methodology that constrains the large-scale atmospheric circulation. An inquiry-based 2-week middle-high school curriculum will be developed centered around the driving question: How might weather in your area be impacted by the Arctic? The curriculum will be reviewed by experts and disseminated through virtual teacher workshops, enabling hundreds of teachers in North America to bring current Arctic research into their classrooms. The project will also actively engage early career scientists in the research including a Ph.D. student and two summer Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) summer students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在过去的40年中，北极的温暖比地球上的任何其他地区都要多。预计这种大于全球北极变暖将继续进行，对人类人群，生态系统和基础设施产生持久影响。尽管已知导致大全球北极变暖的基本机制，但控制北极变暖幅度的机制很难控制。该项目的重点是控制1980年至2060年的北极变暖。通过指定大气条件的方面相对良好的控制（风），项目团队将更好地理解驾驶员的重要性，这些驾驶员的重要性很难在观察上限制（云层和海冰厚度）。这项工作将导致我们对我们对北极变暖的影响和不控制北极变暖的理解的变革性进步。该项目集中在以下研究问题上：海冰厚度和大气不透明（即云）对最近和近乎预期的北极变暖率的因果影响是什么？该研究问题和相关假设将在建立良好的NSF资助的地球系统模型（社区地球系统模型，CESM）中进行评估，其中包括观察结果，其中包括最近一年的现场活动，并具有实质性的现场观察（多学科围栏观测，用于北极气候研究，Mosaic）。中央结果将使用一种新型的“裸”方法来量化两种平均状态特性（大气不透明度，海冰厚度）对北极变暖速率的因果影响，该方法使用一种新型的“防风”方法限制了大规模大气循环。基于询问的2周中高中课程将以驾驶问题为中心：您所在地区的天气如何受到北极的影响？该课程将由专家审查，并通过虚拟教师研讨会进行传播，使北美的数百名教师能够将当前的北极研究带入其教室。该项目还将积极参与早期职业科学家的研究，包括博士学位。学生和两项针对本科生（REU）夏季学生的夏季研究经验。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评估标准，被认为是通过评估而被视为珍贵的。