Collaborative Research: Uncertainty in Antarctic Climate Change Projections and the Role of Sea Ice, Clouds and Ocean Structure

合作研究：南极气候变化预测的不确定性以及海冰、云和海洋结构的作用

• 批准号: 1643493
• 负责人: Jennifer Kay
• 金额: $ 24.37万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-08-15 至 2021-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1643493&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Uncertainty; Antarctic; Climate

Climate change in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean has major societal impacts in terms of global sea level rise, carbon storage into the ocean, and heat transport. The project goal of this study is to systematically assess the influence of long-standing atmospheric radiation and ocean structure components on the modelled climate of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, using a state-of-the-art community climate model (CESM). The project will be co-led by female PIs at the University of Colorado (CU) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and will support the training and mentoring of a new graduate student at CU, and a science communication postdoc. Because public understanding of these issues can be very low, the project includes a substantial outreach and science communication component. An interactive museum display demonstrating the interpretation and implications of trends and variability in Antarctic sea ice will be developed, along with provision of training for K-12 educators nationwide that focuses on using the display, or a web variant.Large uncertainties in projected anthropogenic climate change impacts are related to Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Projected changes in Antarctic surface mass balance, sea ice extent, and surface temperature differ widely amongst current-generation climate models. Such uncertainties likely have roots in the mean states (climatologies) of different models. Recent observational and modeling evidence has implicated ocean mean-state biases in particular for the general inability of climate models to simulate trends in annual Antarctic sea ice extent observed by remote sensing. Ocean biases may be driven in part by a long-standing bias in absorbed shortwave radiation over the Southern Ocean. The primary project goal is to systematically assess the influence of long-standing atmospheric radiation and ocean structure biases on the modelled climate of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, using a state-of-the-art community climate model (CESM). It is anticipated that the mean state (climatology) bias reductions will alter the response of sea ice extent and volume, air temperature, precipitation, surface mass balance, and sea level rise to anthropogenic forcing. Proposed climate modeling experiments, together with existing numerical simulation experiments, will enable a more thorough and systematic assessment of the impact of mean-state biases on the simulation of climate variability and change across Antarctica and the Southern Ocean than has been previously possible.

南极和南大洋的气候变化在全球海平面上升，碳存储到海洋和热运输方面产生了重大社会影响。这项研究的项目目标是使用最先进的社区气候模型（CESM）系统地评估长期大气辐射和海洋结构成分对南极和南海气候的影响。该项目将由科罗拉多大学（CU）和国家大气研究中心（NCAR）的女性PIS共同领导，并将支持CU的新研究生的培训和指导，以及科学通讯博士后。 因为公众对这些问题的理解可能非常低，所以该项目包括大量的宣传和科学沟通组成部分。将开发一个互动博物馆的展示，展示了趋势和南极海冰的含义，并为全国K-12教育工作者提供培训，该培训专注于使用该显示，或者为使用该显示的培训。在电流产生气候模型中，南极表面质量平衡，海冰范围和表面温度的预计变化差异很大。这种不确定性可能根源在不同模型的平均状态（气候）中。最近的观察和建模证据尤其暗示了海洋平均偏见，特别是气候模型的普遍无法模拟遥感观察到的南极海冰范围的趋势。海洋偏见可能部分是由于在南大洋上吸收短波辐射的长期偏见。主要的项目目标是使用最先进的社区气候模型（CESM）系统地评估长期大气辐射和海洋结构偏见对南极和南大洋的建模气候的影响。可以预计，平均状态（气候）偏差降低将改变海冰范围和体积，气温，降水，表面质量平衡，海平面上升到人为强迫的响应。拟议的气候建模实验以及现有的数值模拟实验将使均值偏见对模拟气候变异性和南极洲和南方海洋的变化的影响更彻底，更系统地评估。

项目成果

Quantifying the Influence of Cloud Radiative Feedbacks on Arctic Surface Warming Using Cloud Locking in an Earth System Model

• DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089207
• 发表时间: 2020-07
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: E. Middlemas;J. Kay;B. Medeiros;E. Maroon

Improved clouds over Southern Ocean amplify Antarctic precipitation response to ozone depletion in an earth system model

南大洋上空云层的改善放大了地球系统模型中南极降水对臭氧消耗的响应

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05346-8
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Schneider, David P.;Kay, Jennifer E.;Lenaerts, Jan
• 通讯作者: Lenaerts, Jan

Do Southern Ocean Cloud Feedbacks Matter for 21st Century Warming?

• DOI: 10.1002/2017gl076339
• 发表时间: 2017-12-28
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Frey, W. R.;Maroon, E. A.;Kay, J. E.
• 通讯作者: Kay, J. E.