CAREER: Resolving multi-scale ecological consequences of thermal refuges amidst climate warming

地球上的大多数生命都经历着环境条件的变化，并存在于不同空间的环境中。生态学领域寻求解决的一个重大挑战是理解这种变化所产生的生物后果。该项目将探讨环境中一种重要的空间变化类型-热避难所-的意义。热避难所是生物体在极端天气期间可能会发现有益的地方，因为它们不像周围的地方那样极端，并且可以在极端高温期间保持生物多样性。利用淡水生态系统中的实验和观察来记录热避难所的常见程度，该项目将调查生物如何使用热避难所，以及避难所的存在或不存在如何改变生物的组成及其特征。此外，这项研究将进行实验，以了解热避难所可能允许个体生物在热应激期间持续存在的条件。该项目将在一所小学本科院校进行，并将有助于提供信息，并作为本科生探究式生态学课程的一部分完成，该课程侧重于环境变化的后果。虽然经常因其通过最大限度地减少暴露于致命条件而促进分类多样性的能力而受到称赞，但热避难所的人口效益往往是假设的，而不是经验测量的，避难所利用的人口成本以及避难所可能影响生态结果的环境变化的空间尺度和领域也是如此。这项研究将对热避难所在气候变暖中人口持续存在的作用及其局限性进行机械理解。它的目的是：1）记录的程度，利用和与热避难所相关的多样性模式; 2）评估和概括人口水平的成本和效益的热避难所中的热应力，和3）了解热避难所如何改变人口的持久性和动态响应极端温度事件。这些信息对于完善灭绝风险的估计是有价值的，因为它侧重于阐明环境条件在空间相关尺度上的影响，而人口和社区动态则在这些尺度上展开。特别是，这项研究有可能有助于在平均气温上升和偶发事件中确定预警指标。拟议的活动将解决社会对气候变暖中生物多样性命运的迫切关切，是通过维护、保护、该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的评估被认为值得支持。影响审查标准。

Most life on Earth experiences changes in environmental conditions over time and exists in environments that vary across space. One grand challenge the field of ecology seeks to address is understanding the resulting biological consequences of this variation. This project will address the significance of one important type of spatial variation in the environment, thermal refuges. Thermal refuges are locations organisms may find beneficial during periods of extreme weather in that they are not as extreme as surrounding locations, and may maintain biodiversity amidst periods of extreme heat. Using both experiments and observations in freshwater ecosystems to document how common thermal refuges are, the project will investigate how organisms use thermal refuges, and how the presence or absence of refuges can alter the composition of organisms and their traits. Additionally, this research will perform experiments to understand the conditions over which thermal refuges may allow individual organisms to persist during periods of thermal stress. The project will be conducted at a primarily-undergraduate institution, and will help inform, and be completed as part of, an undergraduate inquiry-based ecology course focused on the consequences of environmental variation.While often lauded for their capacity to promote taxonomic diversity by minimizing exposure to lethal conditions, the demographic benefits of thermal refuges are more often assumed than empirically measured, as are the population-level costs of refuge utilization, and spatial scales and domains of environmental variation over which refuges may influence ecological outcomes. This research will develop a mechanistic understanding of the role of thermal refuges for the persistence of populations amidst climate warming, as well their limitations. It aims to 1) document the extent of, utilization of, and patterns of diversity associated with, thermal refuges; 2) assess and generalize population-level costs and benefits of thermal refuges amidst thermal stress, and 3) understand how thermal refuges alter population persistence and dynamics in response to extreme temperature events. Such information is valuable for refining estimates of extinction risk as it focuses on elucidating the impact of environmental conditions at the spatially relevant scales over which population and community dynamics unfold. In particular, this research has the potential to help identify early warning indicators amidst rising mean temperatures and episodic events. The proposed activities will address the pressing societal concern regarding the fate of biodiversity amidst climate warming, and represents an important initial step in a path towards disaster mitigation by maintaining, preserving, or engineering features of thermal refuges that promote desired ecological consequences.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.