CAREER: Monitoring Chronic Impacts of Nuisance Floods to Enable Incremental Adaptation Against Sea Level Rise

该教师早期职业发展（CAREER）项目探讨了滋扰性洪水的慢性信号的潜力，以提高社区对海平面上升影响的认识，并激励更适当的投资水平，以适应极端和非极端的沿海洪水。海平面正以前所未有的速度上升，减少了高潮和洪水阈值之间的差距，从而增加了滋扰性洪水（又称高潮洪水）的频率。人们对这些洪水的预期事件和累积影响的程度以及减轻洪水风险的替代措施的潜在有效性了解有限。该项目旨在制定一个复原力评估框架，跟踪滋扰性洪水的累积成本，作为海平面上升的持续指标，并支持与减少海平面上升相关损失的投资有关的区域和个人决策。该项目还将包括开发和部署一个基于游戏的学习平台，该平台传达有关累积损失的信息，并允许用户探索潜在的替代解决方案。该游戏将用于吸引从K-12到大学的学生，以及非正式学习者，学习有关海平面上升的课程，它所带来的风险，以及减少这些风险的选择。在这个项目中，沿海基础设施的风险规避能力将使用混合水文-水动力和统计模型进行测试，采用非平稳性，多维性，考虑到海平面上升影响的非线性和长期性。由此产生的建模平台将增进对具有长期影响性质的累积危害的了解，并确定导致基础设施可服务性随时间推移而退化的基本过程。研究成果将帮助社区评估经常性洪水在加强非金融形式资本方面的作用，并可能支持弱势社区的渐进式适应。研究成果将帮助这些社区就如何通过渐进式适应提高其复原力做出明智的决定。研究结果将用于设计一个新颖的基于游戏的学习平台，以评估基于滋扰性洪水信号的风险管理方法的有效性。该项目由人类，灾害和建筑环境计划（HDBE），刺激竞争力研究的既定计划（EPSCoR）和工程局土木，机械和制造创新（CMMI）。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) project explores the potential for the chronic signal of nuisance floods to be used to raise community awareness about sea-level rise impacts and motivate more appropriate levels of investment in adaptation against extreme and non-extreme coastal floods. Sea levels are rising at an unprecedented rate, reducing the gap between high tides and flooding thresholds thereby increasing the frequency of nuisance floods (aka high-tide flooding). There is a limited knowledge about the extent of anticipated incidents and cumulative impacts of these floods as well as the potential effectiveness of alternative measures in flood risk mitigation. This project aims to develop a resilience assessment framework that tracks accumulated costs of nuisance floods to serve as an ongoing indicator of sea-level rise and support regional and individual decision making related to investments to reduce sea-level rise related losses. The project will also include development and deployment of a game-based learning platform that conveys information about cumulative losses and allows users to explore potential alternative solutions. The game will be used to engage students from K-12 through college, as well as informal learners, in lessons about sea-level rise, the risks it presents, and options for reducing those risks.In this project the capacity of coastal infrastructure for risk aversion will be tested using hybrid hydrologic-hydrodynamic and statistical models, taking non-stationarity, multi-dimensionality, nonlinearity and chronicity of sea-level rise impacts into account. The resulting modeling platform will advance knowledge on cumulative hazards with chronic nature of impacts and determine the underlying processes that yield degradation of infrastructure serviceability over time. Research outputs will help communities assess the role of recurrent flooding in strengthening nonfinancial forms of capital and possibly support incremental adaptation in disadvantaged communities. The research outputs will help these communities make informed decisions on how to improve their resiliency through incremental adaptation. The results will be used to design a novel game-based learning platform to assess the effectiveness of risk management approaches based on the signals from nuisance floods.This project is funded jointly by the Humans, Disasters and the Built Environment Program (HDBE), The Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR), and the Engineering Directorate's Division of Civil, Mechanical and Manufacturing Innovation (CMMI).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.