Collaborative Research: Reconstructing Holocene glacier lengths through time to address climate model-data disagreements

合作研究：随着时间的推移重建全新世冰川长度以解决气候模型数据分歧

• 批准号: 2303293
• 负责人: Shaun Marcott
• 金额: $ 28.9万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-07-01 至 2026-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2303293&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Reconstructing; Holocene; glacier

The ongoing retreat of glaciers worldwide provides a striking visual consequence of modern climate change. How glaciers responded to past climate changes forms the conceptual basis for evaluating their future behavior, which in turn provides critical information for people who depend on the water supply from glaciers for irrigation, consumption, and energy usage. This research is generating new geologic data that document glacier and climate changes in the past ~12,000 across North and South America. The project is evaluating the new geologic data using novel statistical, glaciological, and climatological models to determine why glaciers in the study region may have responded differently to past climate shifts. Outcomes of this work provide valuable information for understanding past glacier changes which will lead to a better ability to assess future changes of those same glaciers. This project provides scientific training and mentoring for multiple undergraduate and graduate students. International collaborations are also being strengthened through university partnerships. Public outreach occurring as part of this project includes curriculum building with K-12 partners, participation in statewide science festivals, and undergraduate mentoring that is engaging with underrepresented students recruited through college level programs.Global mean temperatures from the early to late Holocene have warmed by ~0.5°C based on a recent model-data assimilation. Glaciers are sensitive recorders of such climate change; however, glaciers across North America and at several locations in the Tropics expanded from the early to late Holocene, at odds with this latest climate reconstruction. This research is examining Holocene alpine glacier conditions at six locations extending from Alaska to southern Patagonia to address this apparent discrepancy. Through a combination of bedrock exposure dating and statistical/glaciological modeling, the project is relating the chronology of glacier length changes to past climate conditions to address unresolved questions regarding global, hemispheric, and regional climate changes. The objectives of this research are threefold: 1) constraining glacier length changes with paired 14C/10Be exposure ages at six locations that span a large latitudinal range from North to South America; 2) determining glacier length through time at these six locations by applying a Monte Carlo forward model guided by Bayesian inferences from these newly collected data; and 3) using a glaciological model forced by existing climate simulations and paleo-proxy climate reconstructions to determine plausible climate scenarios that explain the glacier length histories from the data and forward model output.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

全球范围内冰川的持续消退为现代气候变化提供了一个引人注目的视觉后果。冰川对过去气候变化的反应形成了评估其未来行为的概念基础，这反过来又为依赖冰川供水进行灌溉、消费和能源使用的人们提供了关键信息。这项研究正在产生新的地质数据，记录了过去约12,000年来北美和南美洲的冰川和气候变化。该项目正在使用新的统计、冰川和气候学模型来评估新的地质数据，以确定为什么研究区域的冰川可能对过去的气候变化做出了不同的反应。这项工作的结果为了解过去的冰川变化提供了宝贵的信息，这将有助于更好地评估这些冰川未来的变化。该项目为多名本科生和研究生提供科学培训和指导。国际合作也通过大学伙伴关系得到加强。作为该项目的一部分，公共宣传活动包括与K-12合作伙伴一起制定课程，参加全州范围的科学节，以及与通过大学水平的课程招募的未被充分代表的学生接触的本科生指导。根据最近的模型-数据同化，从全新世早期到晚期，全球平均气温上升了约0.5摄氏度。冰川是这种气候变化的敏感记录器；然而，整个北美和热带地区几个地点的冰川从全新世早期到晚期都在扩大，这与最近的气候重建不一致。这项研究正在研究从阿拉斯加到巴塔哥尼亚南部的六个地点的全新世高山冰川条件，以解决这种明显的差异。通过结合基岩暴露年代和统计/冰川学模型，该项目正在将冰川长度变化的年表与过去的气候条件联系起来，以解决有关全球、半球和区域气候变化的悬而未决的问题。这项研究的目标有三个：1)用从北美到南美的大纬度范围内的六个地点的14C/10Be暴露年龄来限制冰川长度的变化；2)通过应用从这些新收集的数据中的贝叶斯推断指导的蒙特卡罗正向模型来确定这六个地点的冰川长度随时间的变化；以及3)使用由现有气候模拟和古代理气候重建强制的冰川学模型来确定根据数据和正向模型输出来解释冰川长度历史的可信的气候情景。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，认为值得支持。