RAPID: Understanding Hurricane Ian's Storm Surge Inundation and Sediment Transport in Order to Advance the Field of Paleotempestology

飓风伊恩于2022年9月28日在佛罗里达州西南部登陆，引发大范围洪灾。海岸线的变化是巨大的，伴随而来的是生命损失和基础设施的极端破坏。飓风伊恩被认为是一种罕见的高损失事件，也被称为“尾部风险事件”。尾部风险飓风对沿海社区是一个严重威胁，例如南佛罗里达海岸线，那里的人口在过去几十年里快速增长。估计未来的飓风风险取决于对过去事件的了解，但大多数飓风记录只追溯到约170年前。科学家可以利用地质记录来寻找数千年来过去飓风的证据。这些记录有助于揭示飓风活动的长期模式，并探索飓风伊恩等飓风的原因。飓风伊恩提供了一个极好的机会来研究尾部风险飓风的地质证据，以估计这些事件发生的频率。该项目将分析沉积物样本，并测量受风暴影响地区的高程。这些分析将为尾部风险飓风的地质记录中留下什么证据提供一个关键。进一步的工作将在地质记录中及时应用这些特征来确定风暴频率。这项研究的结果将用于支持模型的改进、飓风风险评估、规划和发展。这项工作将更好地向保险和再保险行业、沿海管理人员、联邦灾害机构和当地社区通报罕见的尾部风险飓风。在这项研究中产生的数据将被广泛传播给公众。已经为佛罗里达西南海岸线开发了几个古风温学重建，并将我们对该地区飓风活动的了解延长到1000多年前。然而，需要有充分证据的现代类比来帮助解释这些长期记录。飓风伊恩在佛罗里达西南海岸的登陆提供了一个机会，可以调查与强烈的4级飓风(每小时150英里的风速)相关的冲刷沉积物的特征。对现代风暴的研究，如伊恩这样的尾部风险飓风留下的沉积物，对于能够准确解释沉积物记录是必不可少的。这项研究旨在研究飓风伊恩过后从万岛的法卡哈奇群岛到松岛的博基利亚以北的六个以前研究过的屏障后现场的沉积和地貌变化。将采用沉积物岩心来确定飓风伊恩风暴潮驱动的溢流沉积的性质和性质。将检查岩心的粒度、事件层沉积和碎屑成分。溢流沉积物的性质和性质将与附近的高水位和飓风Ian Slosh模型的产出进行比较。此外，还将利用飓风登陆前后的激光雷达数据，深入研究障碍岛的地貌变化。该项目将通过更好地了解尾部风险飓风沉积来推进古温学领域，这最终将导致更好地从根本上重建此类事件。因此，这项研究将增加对尾部风险飓风重现期的理解。这项研究还将有助于确定脆弱的障碍岛对尾部风险风暴事件的反应。生成的飓风数据集稍后将用于计算机模型。这些信息将有助于更好地了解控制飓风形成、强度和路径的长期气候驱动因素，这对飓风风险评估和沿海管理决策至关重要。此外，地貌研究将告知海岸管理人员障碍岛在阻挡和/或减少风暴潮/泛滥方面的重要性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Hurricane Ian made landfall in Southwest Florida on September 28, 2022, generating extensive flooding. The change to the coastline was substantial and was accompanied by loss of human life and extreme infrastructure damage. Hurricane Ian is considered a rare, high loss event also known as a “tail-risk event.” Tail-risk hurricanes are a serious threat for coastal communities, such as the South Florida coastline, where the past few decades have seen rapid population growth. Estimating future hurricane risk relies upon knowledge of past events, but most hurricane records only extend back ~170 years. Scientists can use the geologic record to find evidence of past hurricanes over thousands of years. These records help to uncover long-term patterns in hurricane activity and explore the causes of hurricanes like Hurricane Ian. Hurricane Ian provides an excellent opportunity to study the geologic evidence of a tail-risk hurricane to estimate how often these events have occurred. This project will analyze sediment samples and measure elevation in areas impacted by the storm. These analyses will provide a key for what evidence is left behind in the geologic record from tail-risk hurricanes. Further work will apply these characteristics back in time in the geologic record to determine storm frequency. The results of this study will be used to support improvement of models, hurricane risk assessment, planning, and development. This work will better inform insurance and re-insurance industries, coastal managers, federal disaster agencies, and local communities about rare tail-risk hurricanes. The data produced during this study will be widely disseminated to the public. Several paleotempestology reconstructions have already been developed for the Southwest Florida coastline and have extended our knowledge of hurricane activity in the area back more than 1000 years. However, well documented modern analogs are needed to help interpret these long-term records. The landfall of Hurricane Ian along the Southwest Florida coast provides an opportunity to investigate the character of overwash deposits associated with a strong category 4 hurricane (150 mph winds). Studies of modern storms, such as the deposits left behind by tail-risk hurricanes like Ian, are essential for being able to accurately interpret the sediment record. This research aims to examine post Hurricane Ian sedimentological and geomorphologic change at six previously studied back-barrier field sites from as far south as the Fakahatchee, Ten Thousand Islands, to as far north as Bokeelia, Pine Island. Sediment cores will be taken to determine the character and nature of Hurricane Ian storm surge driven overwash deposits. The cores will be examined for grain size, event-bed deposition, and clast composition. The character and nature of the overwash deposits will be compared to nearby high-water marks and Hurricane Ian SLOSH model output runs. In addition, an in-depth study of the barrier island geomorphologic change will be carried out utilizing pre- and post-hurricane landfall LiDAR data. This project will advance the field of paleotempestology through a better understanding of tail-risk hurricane deposition, which will ultimately lead to better reconstructions of such events down-core. Therefore, this research will increase understanding of tail-risk hurricane return periods. This research will also help to determine the response of vulnerable barrier islands to tail-risk storm events. The generated hurricane data sets will be later used in computer models. This information will aid in the better understanding of the long-term climate drivers that control the formation, intensity, and track of hurricanes, which is critically important for hurricane risk assessment and coastal management decision-making. In addition, the geomorphologic study will inform coastal managers on the importance of barrier islands in blocking and/or reducing storm surge/overwash.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.