DISES:Integrating human and biophysical factors to project future cropscapes under climate change

预计气候变化将改变许多作物的农业产量。因此，必须了解技术变革、农民适应和农业政策的潜力，以减轻气候变化对农业经济、粮食安全、国际贸易、农村社会和生态健康的影响。该项目让不同农业系统的利益相关者参与进来，调查影响农业未来的社会和环境因素。研究人员综合了历史分析、预测模型、专家见解和农民的看法，以确定可能改变每个地区未来的新兴作物、技术、政策和农场现实。该项目的高潮是召集来自每个农业区域的利益相关者，设想相关战略，以促进更理想的农业未来。鉴于防止生物多样性丧失、减轻气候变化影响和粮食不安全的三重挑战，农业系统的转型适应将是必要和不可避免的。该项目与利益相关者共同创造知识，以了解历史条件如何影响当代农业系统的演变，利用利益相关者的知识来制定可能的社会环境系统未来情景，并确定过渡途径，以实现理想的未来条件。研究小组汇集了各种已知的农业生态系统，以描绘不同地区未来可能发生变化的方向、界限和幅度。该项目确定了有可能改变区域种植制度的新兴农业技术、作物、管理实践和政策，并调查了当前的农场管理如何影响社会生态系统动态。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Climate change is projected to alter the agricultural yields of many crops. Thus it is important to understand the potential for technological change, farmer adaptation and agricultural policy to mitigate the effect of climate change on agricultural economies, food security, international trade, rural societies, and ecological health. This project engages stakeholders in diverse agricultural systems to investigate the social and environmental factors that drive agricultural futures. The investigators integrate historical analyses, predictive modeling, expert insights, and farmer perceptions to identify emergent crops, technologies, policies, and on-farm realities that might alter probable futures in each region. The project culminates in a convergence event convening stakeholders from each agricultural region to envision relevant strategies to catalyze more desirable agricultural futures. Given the triple challenge of preventing biodiversity loss, mitigating the effects of climate change, and food insecurity, transformative adaptation of agricultural systems will be necessary and inevitable. This project co-produces knowledge with stakeholders to understand how historical conditions have affected the evolution of contemporary agricultural systems, draws on stakeholder knowledge to develop scenarios of probable socio-environmental system futures, and identifies transition pathways to move towards desirable future conditions. The research team assembles what is known about diverse agroecosystems to delineate the direction, bounds, and magnitude of probable future change in disparate regions. The project identifies emergent agricultural technologies, crops, management practices, and policies with the potential to transform regional cultivation regimes and investigates how current farm management influences social-ecological system dynamics.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.