DISES: Coupled Socio-Ecological Mobility in the Coastal Zone

由于更频繁和更严重的洪水，沿海环境的条件正在发生变化。沿海地区未来的可持续性将取决于随着海平面上升，人类和自然系统共同向内陆迁移的能力。然而，由于开发压力，可供自然生境迁移的适当空间正在减少，导致沿海地区受到挤压。该项目调查了受美国中大西洋沿海地区海岸挤压影响的社会生态系统共同迁移的潜力，以响应SLR和不同的决策途径。首先，它使用地理空间分析来衡量海岸挤压的程度和类型。其次，它确定了影响洪水易发沿海社区人口流动的因素和支持协调的社会生态流动的政策障碍。最后，该项目通过统计协调和共同流动指数矩阵和报告卡的开发整合了产出，为利益相关者提供了一种结构化的方式来评估当前和未来的沿海挤压和潜在的流动模式。这项研究将推进沿海社会生态移民的科学研究，并为这两个系统的流动模式提供与政策相关的经验证据，为沿海管理和土地利用决策提供信息。许多沿海地区已经存在海岸挤压现象，随着SLR加速和更频繁的风暴潮洪水，这种情况只会恶化。与此同时，对于大多数沿海系统而言，目前缺乏关于自然生境与人类生境之间的迁移率可能不匹配的影响的知识。该项目将评估中大西洋地区的社会生态移徙和不同的家庭和政策决定的情景。该项目的目标是：1）根据到2050年的预计SLR，使用地理空间建模，确定影响沿海地区沼泽和人类系统的海岸挤压的当前和未来程度和配置; 2）根据基于家庭和地点的特征、偏好和可用的支持机制，使用原始数据收集，描述SLR驱动的人类迁移的潜力（多模式调查和研讨会）; 3）确定自然和人类系统中的流动性驱动因素，以使用统计协调和共同流动性指数矩阵（Co-MIM）和汇总记分卡的开发来管理和未来的海岸挤压情景。研究结果将促进人们对自然和人类系统的共同迁移的基本理解，这些系统受到海岸挤压的影响，内部和外部力量改变了它们之间的相互作用，以应对不同的政策决定。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

Conditions in coastal environments are changing due to more frequent and severe flooding. The future sustainability of coastal zones will depend on the ability of both the human and natural systems to co-migrate inland as sea level rise (SLR) increases. However, the amount of suitable space available for the migration of natural habitats is decreasing due to development pressures, resulting in coastal squeeze. This project investigates the potential for co-migration of socioecological systems affected by coastal squeeze in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coastal region in response to SLR and different decision-making pathways. First, it measures the extent and types of coastal squeeze using geospatial analysis. Next, it identifies considerations affecting human mobility in flood-prone coastal communities and policy barriers to supporting coordinated socioecological mobility. Lastly, the project integrates produced outputs via statistical ordination and development of the Co-mobility Indices Matrix and Report cards to provide stakeholders with a structured way to assess the current and future coastal squeeze and potential mobility patterns in their localities. This research will advance science on coastal socioecological migration and provide policy-relevant empirical evidence on the mobility patterns of these two systems, informing coastal management and land use decisions. Coastal squeeze is already present in many coastal settings and will only worsen with accelerated SLR and more frequent storm-surge flooding. At the same time, knowledge about the implications of a potential mismatch between migration rates of natural versus human habitats is currently lacking for most coastal systems. This project will evaluate scenarios of socioecological migration and different household and policy decisions in the Mid-Atlantic region. The project goals are to: 1) determine the current and future extent and configurations of coastal squeeze affecting marsh and human systems in the coastal zone based on projected SLR up to 2050 using geospatial modeling; 2) characterize the potential for SLR-driven human migration based on household- and place-based characteristics, preferences, and available support mechanisms using primary data collection (multi-modal surveys and workshops); and 3) identify mobility drivers in natural and human systems for the management and future scenarios of coastal squeeze using statistical ordination and development of the Co-mobility Indices Matrix (Co-MIM) and summary scorecards. Results will advance basic understanding of co-migration of coupled natural and human systems affected by coastal squeeze and internal and external forces modifying interactions between them in response to different policy decisions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.