DISES: Coupled Socio-Ecological Mobility in the Coastal Zone

由于更频繁和严重的洪水，沿海环境的条件正在发生变化。沿海地区未来的可持续性将取决于随着海平面上升（SLR）的增加，人类和自然系统向内陆共同迁移的能力。然而，由于发展的压力，可供自然生境迁移的合适空间正在减少，导致海岸拥挤。本项目研究了受海岸挤压影响的美国中大西洋沿岸地区社会生态系统共同迁移的潜力，以响应SLR和不同的决策路径。首先，它使用地理空间分析来衡量沿海挤压的程度和类型。其次，它确定了影响洪水易发沿海社区人口流动的因素，以及支持协调社会生态流动的政策障碍。最后，该项目通过统计协调和共同流动性指数矩阵和报告卡的开发来整合产出，为利益相关者提供一种结构化的方式来评估当前和未来的沿海挤压以及其所在地区潜在的流动性模式。本研究将促进沿海社会生态迁移的科学研究，并为这两个系统的迁移模式提供政策相关的经验证据，为沿海管理和土地利用决策提供信息。沿海挤压已经出现在许多沿海地区，随着SLR的加速和风暴潮洪水的更频繁，这种情况只会恶化。与此同时，大多数沿海系统目前缺乏关于自然栖息地与人类栖息地迁移速度之间潜在不匹配的影响的知识。该项目将评估中大西洋地区的社会生态移民和不同的家庭和政策决定。该项目的目标是：1)利用地理空间模型，基于预计到2050年的SLR，确定影响海岸带沼泽和人类系统的沿海挤压的当前和未来程度和配置；2)利用原始数据收集（多模式调查和研讨会），根据基于家庭和地点的特征、偏好和现有支持机制，描述slr驱动的人类迁移的潜力；3)利用统计协调和共同流动性指数矩阵（Co-MIM）和总结记分卡的开发，确定自然和人类系统中对沿海挤压管理和未来情景的流动性驱动因素。研究结果将促进对受沿海挤压影响的耦合自然和人类系统的共同迁移的基本理解，以及根据不同的政策决定改变它们之间相互作用的内外部力量。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Conditions in coastal environments are changing due to more frequent and severe flooding. The future sustainability of coastal zones will depend on the ability of both the human and natural systems to co-migrate inland as sea level rise (SLR) increases. However, the amount of suitable space available for the migration of natural habitats is decreasing due to development pressures, resulting in coastal squeeze. This project investigates the potential for co-migration of socioecological systems affected by coastal squeeze in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coastal region in response to SLR and different decision-making pathways. First, it measures the extent and types of coastal squeeze using geospatial analysis. Next, it identifies considerations affecting human mobility in flood-prone coastal communities and policy barriers to supporting coordinated socioecological mobility. Lastly, the project integrates produced outputs via statistical ordination and development of the Co-mobility Indices Matrix and Report cards to provide stakeholders with a structured way to assess the current and future coastal squeeze and potential mobility patterns in their localities. This research will advance science on coastal socioecological migration and provide policy-relevant empirical evidence on the mobility patterns of these two systems, informing coastal management and land use decisions. Coastal squeeze is already present in many coastal settings and will only worsen with accelerated SLR and more frequent storm-surge flooding. At the same time, knowledge about the implications of a potential mismatch between migration rates of natural versus human habitats is currently lacking for most coastal systems. This project will evaluate scenarios of socioecological migration and different household and policy decisions in the Mid-Atlantic region. The project goals are to: 1) determine the current and future extent and configurations of coastal squeeze affecting marsh and human systems in the coastal zone based on projected SLR up to 2050 using geospatial modeling; 2) characterize the potential for SLR-driven human migration based on household- and place-based characteristics, preferences, and available support mechanisms using primary data collection (multi-modal surveys and workshops); and 3) identify mobility drivers in natural and human systems for the management and future scenarios of coastal squeeze using statistical ordination and development of the Co-mobility Indices Matrix (Co-MIM) and summary scorecards. Results will advance basic understanding of co-migration of coupled natural and human systems affected by coastal squeeze and internal and external forces modifying interactions between them in response to different policy decisions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.