DISES: Coupled Socio-Ecological Mobility in the Coastal Zone

由于洪水更加频繁和严重，沿海环境的情况正在发生变化。海岸带未来的可持续性将取决于人类和自然系统随着海平面上升而共同向内陆迁移的能力。然而，由于发展压力，可供自然栖息地迁徙的合适空间数量正在减少，导致沿海地区受到挤压。该项目调查了受海岸挤压影响的美国大西洋中部沿海地区受SLR和不同决策途径影响的社会生态系统共同迁移的可能性。首先，它利用地理空间分析来衡量海岸挤压的程度和类型。其次，它确定了影响易发洪水的沿海社区人类流动性的考虑因素，以及支持协调社会生态流动性的政策障碍。最后，该项目通过统计排序和编制共同流动指数汇总表和报告卡，整合了所产生的产出，为利益攸关方提供了一种结构化的方式，以评估其当地当前和未来的沿海拥挤和潜在的流动模式。这项研究将推动沿海社会生态移民的科学研究，并就这两个系统的流动模式提供与政策相关的经验证据，为沿海管理和土地利用决策提供信息。海岸挤压已经存在于许多沿海地区，而且只会随着单反加速和更频繁的风暴潮洪水而恶化。与此同时，大多数沿海系统目前缺乏关于自然栖息地迁移率与人类栖息地迁移率之间潜在不匹配的影响的知识。该项目将评估大西洋中部地区的社会生态移徙情景以及不同的家庭和政策决定。该项目的目标是：1)利用地球空间模型，根据预测的2050年以前的SLR，确定影响沿海地带沼泽和人类系统的海岸挤压的当前和未来的程度和形态；2)利用主要数据收集(多模式调查和讲习班)，根据基于家庭和地点的特征、偏好和现有的支助机制，确定由SLR驱动的人类移徙的潜力；以及3)利用统计排序和开发共同机动性指数矩阵(Co-MIM)和总结记分卡，确定自然和人类系统中用于沿海挤压管理和未来情景的流动驱动因素。结果将促进对受海岸挤压影响的自然和人类耦合系统的共同迁移以及因应不同政策决定而改变它们之间的相互作用的内部和外部力量的基本理解。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Conditions in coastal environments are changing due to more frequent and severe flooding. The future sustainability of coastal zones will depend on the ability of both the human and natural systems to co-migrate inland as sea level rise (SLR) increases. However, the amount of suitable space available for the migration of natural habitats is decreasing due to development pressures, resulting in coastal squeeze. This project investigates the potential for co-migration of socioecological systems affected by coastal squeeze in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coastal region in response to SLR and different decision-making pathways. First, it measures the extent and types of coastal squeeze using geospatial analysis. Next, it identifies considerations affecting human mobility in flood-prone coastal communities and policy barriers to supporting coordinated socioecological mobility. Lastly, the project integrates produced outputs via statistical ordination and development of the Co-mobility Indices Matrix and Report cards to provide stakeholders with a structured way to assess the current and future coastal squeeze and potential mobility patterns in their localities. This research will advance science on coastal socioecological migration and provide policy-relevant empirical evidence on the mobility patterns of these two systems, informing coastal management and land use decisions. Coastal squeeze is already present in many coastal settings and will only worsen with accelerated SLR and more frequent storm-surge flooding. At the same time, knowledge about the implications of a potential mismatch between migration rates of natural versus human habitats is currently lacking for most coastal systems. This project will evaluate scenarios of socioecological migration and different household and policy decisions in the Mid-Atlantic region. The project goals are to: 1) determine the current and future extent and configurations of coastal squeeze affecting marsh and human systems in the coastal zone based on projected SLR up to 2050 using geospatial modeling; 2) characterize the potential for SLR-driven human migration based on household- and place-based characteristics, preferences, and available support mechanisms using primary data collection (multi-modal surveys and workshops); and 3) identify mobility drivers in natural and human systems for the management and future scenarios of coastal squeeze using statistical ordination and development of the Co-mobility Indices Matrix (Co-MIM) and summary scorecards. Results will advance basic understanding of co-migration of coupled natural and human systems affected by coastal squeeze and internal and external forces modifying interactions between them in response to different policy decisions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.