Assessing the Impacts of Coastal Flood-Induced Relocation on Local Jurisdictions

评估沿海洪水引起的搬迁对当地管辖区的影响

• 批准号: 1920478
• 负责人: Anamaria Bukvic
• 金额: $ 32.5万
• 依托单位: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-09-01 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1920478&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Assessing; Impacts; Coastal; Flood; Induced

This interdisciplinary project studies the impacts of relocation in coastal communities on local jurisdictions. It will provide data about possible consequences of flood-driven depopulation of coastal jurisdictions, including the loss of sociocultural identity and economic viability. This information is imperative to support localities in policy changes that would minimize the adverse effects of flood-induced relocation on their governance and institutional performance. This project serves national interests by advancing science on emerging problems in coastal communities whose resilience is vital for national security, stability, and welfare. Its societal benefits are also achieved by including highly vulnerable coastal communities (e.g. rural fishing villages and urban poor), which are already experiencing various socioeconomic and environmental challenges that may compound their vulnerability. Results and supplemental materials will be disseminated via an online web portal designed to facilitate a community of researchers, practitioners, and other stakeholders interested in coastal resilience. Outreach will be enhanced by the Virginia Cooperative Extension, which has a long history of education in rural communities. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to improve the scientific understanding of possible consequences of coastal flood-induced relocation on local jurisdictions with diverse socio-economic, cultural, institutional, and historic contexts. It will establish scenarios of coastal flood-driven relocation over different time scales in both rural and urban settings to discern potential implications of this process on the socioeconomic viability of local jurisdictions. This mixed-methods approach will rely on both quantitative and qualitative data to capture the contextual influences and complexities that typically shape local decision-making. The project activities will: 1) examine the risk of coastal flooding and develop spatiotemporal flood exposure scenarios of potential loss of businesses, real-estate, and corresponding population; 2) determine preferences for relocation destination among residents living in flood-prone areas obtained via household surveys, and 3) discern emergent macro-scale trends in relocation behavior using Agent Based Modeling (ABM). The analysis will be applied to two contrasting case study locations with different levels of urbanization on the Eastern Shore, Maryland, and in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Important aspects of the research strategy include interdisciplinary integration of geography, coastal and system engineering, and business analytics, as well as holistic analysis of circumstances that may affect the extent and progression of relocation from coastal flood-affected periphery. This project will ultimately lead to improved understanding of how physical, behavioral, and institutional factors interact to shape the evolution of coastal communities under increasing flood risks, thereby leading to more resilient communities in the coastal zone.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这一跨学科项目研究沿海社区搬迁对地方管辖权的影响。它将提供数据，说明洪水造成沿海管辖区人口减少的可能后果，包括社会文化特征和经济活力的丧失。这一信息对于支持地方进行政策调整，尽量减少洪水引起的搬迁对地方治理和机构绩效的不利影响至关重要。该项目通过推进沿海社区新出现问题的科学研究来服务于国家利益，这些社区的复原力对国家安全，稳定和福利至关重要。其社会效益还通过纳入高度脆弱的沿海社区（如农村渔村和城市贫民）来实现，这些社区已经面临各种社会经济和环境挑战，可能加剧其脆弱性。研究结果和补充材料将通过一个在线门户网站传播，该门户网站旨在促进研究人员、从业人员和其他对沿海复原力感兴趣的利益攸关方的社区。弗吉尼亚合作推广机构将加强外联工作，该机构在农村社区有着悠久的教育历史。这个跨学科项目的目标是提高对沿海洪水引起的搬迁对具有不同社会经济，文化，体制和历史背景的地方管辖区可能产生的后果的科学认识。它将在农村和城市环境中建立不同时间尺度上沿海洪水驱动的搬迁情景，以确定这一过程对地方管辖区社会经济可行性的潜在影响。这种混合方法将依赖定量和定性数据来捕捉通常影响当地决策的背景影响和复杂性。项目活动将：1）检查沿海洪水的风险，并制定企业、房地产和相应人口潜在损失的时空洪水暴露情景; 2）通过家庭调查确定居住在洪水易发地区的居民对搬迁目的地的偏好，以及3）使用基于代理的建模（ABM）识别搬迁行为中的紧急宏观趋势。该分析将被应用到两个对比的案例研究地点，在东海岸，马里兰州，并在汉普顿路，弗吉尼亚州的城市化水平不同。研究战略的重要方面包括地理，沿海和系统工程，业务分析的跨学科整合，以及可能影响沿海受洪水影响的周边地区搬迁的程度和进展的情况的整体分析。该项目将最终导致更好地理解物理，行为和制度因素如何相互作用，以塑造沿海社区在不断增加的洪水风险下的演变，从而导致沿海地区更具弹性的社区。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

项目成果

Using an urban growth model framework to project the impacts of climate change on coastal populations

使用城市增长模型框架来预测气候变化对沿海人口的影响

• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: 2023 World Environmental & Water Resources Congress
• 作者: B. Naurath, J.L. Irish

Probabilistic tropical cyclone surge hazard under future sea-level rise scenarios: A case study in the Chesapeake Bay region

未来海平面上升情景下热带气旋激增的概率危害：切萨皮克湾地区的案例研究

• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: 2023 World Environmental & Water Resources Congress
• 作者: K. Kim, J.-W. Lee

Spatiotemporal implications of flooding on relocation risk in rural and urban coastal municipalities

洪水对沿海农村和城市搬迁风险的时空影响

• DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106754
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Land Use Policy
• 影响因子: 7.1
• 作者: Bukvic, A.;Mitchell, A.;Shao, Y.;Irish, J.L.
• 通讯作者: Irish, J.L.

Toward Collaborative Adaptation: Assessing Impacts of Coastal Flooding at the Watershed Scale

迈向协作适应：评估流域范围内沿海洪水的影响

• DOI: 10.1007/s00267-022-01759-9
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Environmental Management
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Mitchell, Allison;Bukvic, Anamaria;Shao, Yang;Irish, Jennifer L.;McLaughlin, Daniel L.
• 通讯作者: McLaughlin, Daniel L.