Collaborative Research: ORCC: Integrated mechanistic predictions of ecological and evolutionary responses to increasing aridity across the range of an iconic species

为了在不断变化的环境条件下生存下去，物种必须能够忍受变化，跨代适应，和/或迁移到新的适合的栖息地。这个项目解决了一个基本问题：遗传变异（在物种范围内和跨物种范围内）如何影响物种对环境变化的生态和进化反应？该研究研究了一种广泛存在的基础植物物种对与气候变化相关的日益炎热和干燥的条件的反应。采用了多种方法，包括野外观测、温室实验、群体遗传学和物种分布模型。物种在其分布范围内的个体特征，如耐旱性、寿命和每年产生的种子数量，往往差异很大。研究人员的目标是改进关于物种在面对气候变化时的持久性的预测，包括预期的迁徙，根据不同景观中单个植物的差异来提供信息。加利福尼亚罂粟（Eschscholzia californica）是一个理想的研究物种，因为它分布广泛，在其范围内表现出个体差异，并且经常在恢复中种植。它也是春天盛开的标志性野花，吸引了公众对保护活动的兴趣。更广泛的影响包括研究生和本科生培训，与多个利益相关者的联系，以及制定保护策略以提高物种对气候变化的适应潜力。随着气候变化和栖息地丧失的速度加快，保护工作需要了解适应机制，以最大限度地提高物种的持久性。物种分布模型是保护“工具箱”中的一个重要工具。本研究利用积分投影模型（integrated Projection Models, IPMs），结合物种特征、人口统计学和进化过程，对未来物种对气候变化的响应进行预测。研究人员通过实验数据参数化的ipm和人口统计学权衡，将群体遗传和表型分化适应机制整合到范围转移的预测中。这一建议的智力价值的一个关键方面在于发展了人口分布模型（DDMs），这是一类新的物种分布模型，可以将进化机制纳入生态和生物地理预测中。虽然这些模型是为焦点物种加利福尼亚罂粟开发的，但它们将广泛地转移到其他具有保护、栖息地恢复和/或经济意义的广泛的基础物种。培训研究生和本科生进行跨学科研究，以促进专业发展和扩大传统上在STEM中代表性不足的群体的参与，是该项目的一个组成部分。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

To persist in the face of changing environmental conditions, species must be able to tolerate change, adapt across generations, and/or migrate to newly suitable habitats. This project addresses a fundamental question: How does genetic variation (within and across a species range) influence species' ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental change? The research studies the response of a widespread, foundational plant species to increasingly hotter and drier conditions associated with climate change. Multiple approaches including field observations, greenhouse experiments, population genetics, and species distribution modeling are employed. Species often vary greatly across their ranges in the traits of individuals such as drought tolerance, longevity, and the number of seeds produced per year. The investigators aim to improve predictions regarding species persistence in the face of climate change, including expected migrations, informed by how individual plants differ across landscapes. California poppy (Eschscholzia californica) is an ideal study species because it is widespread, displays individual variation across its range, and is often planted in restoration. It is also an iconic spring-blooming wildflower, garnering public interest in conservation activities. Broader impacts include graduate and undergraduate training, outreach to multiple stakeholders, and development of conservation strategies to enhance adaptive potential in species responding to climate change. With the accelerating pace of both climate change and habitat loss, conservation efforts will need to understand adaptive mechanisms that maximize the chances for species’ persistence. Species distribution models are a critical tool in the conservation “tool box." This research aims to improve predictions of future species responses to climate change by using a mechanistic process incorporating traits, demography and evolutionary processes across scales, using Integral Projection Models (IPMs). The investigators integrate population genetic and phenotypic differentiation mechanisms of adaptation into predictions of range shifts, via IPMs parameterized by experimental data and informed by demographic trade-offs. A key aspect of the intellectual merit of this proposal lies in the development of demographic distribution models (DDMs), a new class of species distribution model that can incorporate evolutionary mechanisms into ecological and biogeographic predictions. Although developed for the focal species, California poppy, these models will be broadly transferable to other widespread, foundational species with conservation, habitat restoration, and/or economic significance. Training of graduate and undergraduate students in interdisciplinary research aimed at promoting professional development and broadening participation of groups traditionally under-represented in STEM is an integral part of the project.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.