Collaborative Research: ORCC: Integrated mechanistic predictions of ecological and evolutionary responses to increasing aridity across the range of an iconic species

合作研究：ORCC：对标志性物种范围内日益干旱的生态和进化反应的综合机制预测

• 批准号: 2307791
• 负责人: Elsa Cleland
• 金额: $ 62.24万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-06-01 至 2027-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2307791&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; ORCC; Integrated; mechanistic

To persist in the face of changing environmental conditions, species must be able to tolerate change, adapt across generations, and/or migrate to newly suitable habitats. This project addresses a fundamental question: How does genetic variation (within and across a species range) influence species' ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental change? The research studies the response of a widespread, foundational plant species to increasingly hotter and drier conditions associated with climate change. Multiple approaches including field observations, greenhouse experiments, population genetics, and species distribution modeling are employed. Species often vary greatly across their ranges in the traits of individuals such as drought tolerance, longevity, and the number of seeds produced per year. The investigators aim to improve predictions regarding species persistence in the face of climate change, including expected migrations, informed by how individual plants differ across landscapes. California poppy (Eschscholzia californica) is an ideal study species because it is widespread, displays individual variation across its range, and is often planted in restoration. It is also an iconic spring-blooming wildflower, garnering public interest in conservation activities. Broader impacts include graduate and undergraduate training, outreach to multiple stakeholders, and development of conservation strategies to enhance adaptive potential in species responding to climate change. With the accelerating pace of both climate change and habitat loss, conservation efforts will need to understand adaptive mechanisms that maximize the chances for species’ persistence. Species distribution models are a critical tool in the conservation “tool box." This research aims to improve predictions of future species responses to climate change by using a mechanistic process incorporating traits, demography and evolutionary processes across scales, using Integral Projection Models (IPMs). The investigators integrate population genetic and phenotypic differentiation mechanisms of adaptation into predictions of range shifts, via IPMs parameterized by experimental data and informed by demographic trade-offs. A key aspect of the intellectual merit of this proposal lies in the development of demographic distribution models (DDMs), a new class of species distribution model that can incorporate evolutionary mechanisms into ecological and biogeographic predictions. Although developed for the focal species, California poppy, these models will be broadly transferable to other widespread, foundational species with conservation, habitat restoration, and/or economic significance. Training of graduate and undergraduate students in interdisciplinary research aimed at promoting professional development and broadening participation of groups traditionally under-represented in STEM is an integral part of the project.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

为了在不断变化的环境条件下生存，物种必须能够容忍变化，跨代适应，和/或迁移到新的合适的栖息地。该项目解决了一个基本问题：遗传变异（在物种范围内和跨物种范围）如何影响物种对环境变化的生态和进化反应？这项研究研究了一种广泛分布的基础植物物种对与气候变化相关的日益炎热和干燥的条件的反应。采用多种方法，包括现场观察，温室实验，种群遗传学和物种分布建模。物种在其分布范围内的个体特征，如耐旱性，寿命和每年产生的种子数量往往差异很大。研究人员的目标是改善对气候变化中物种持久性的预测，包括预期的迁移，并了解不同景观中的个体植物如何不同。加州罂粟（学名：Calscholzia californica）是一种理想的研究物种，因为它分布广泛，在其分布范围内显示出个体变异，并且经常种植在恢复中。它也是一种标志性的春天盛开的野花，吸引了公众对保护活动的兴趣。更广泛的影响包括研究生和本科生培训，与多个利益相关者的联系，以及制定保护战略，以提高物种对气候变化的适应潜力。随着气候变化和栖息地丧失的速度加快，保护工作将需要了解最大限度地提高物种生存机会的适应机制。物种分布模型是保护“工具箱”中的一个关键工具。“这项研究旨在通过使用整合投影模型（IPM），使用一种机械过程，将特征，人口统计学和跨尺度的进化过程结合起来，改善未来物种对气候变化的反应预测。研究人员将适应的群体遗传和表型分化机制整合到范围变化的预测中，通过实验数据参数化的IPM，并通过人口权衡来告知。这一建议的智力价值的一个关键方面在于人口分布模型（DDMs），一类新的物种分布模型，可以将进化机制纳入生态和地理预测的发展。虽然开发的焦点物种，加州罂粟，这些模型将被广泛转移到其他广泛的，基础物种的保护，栖息地恢复，和/或经济意义。该项目的一个组成部分是对研究生和本科生进行跨学科研究的培训，旨在促进专业发展，扩大传统上在STEM中代表性不足的群体的参与。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。