Collaborative Research: ORCC: Integrated mechanistic predictions of ecological and evolutionary responses to increasing aridity across the range of an iconic species

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To persist in the face of changing environmental conditions, species must be able to tolerate change, adapt across generations, and/or migrate to newly suitable habitats. This project addresses a fundamental question: How does genetic variation (within and across a species range) influence species' ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental change? The research studies the response of a widespread, foundational plant species to increasingly hotter and drier conditions associated with climate change. Multiple approaches including field observations, greenhouse experiments, population genetics, and species distribution modeling are employed. Species often vary greatly across their ranges in the traits of individuals such as drought tolerance, longevity, and the number of seeds produced per year. The investigators aim to improve predictions regarding species persistence in the face of climate change, including expected migrations, informed by how individual plants differ across landscapes. California poppy (Eschscholzia californica) is an ideal study species because it is widespread, displays individual variation across its range, and is often planted in restoration. It is also an iconic spring-blooming wildflower, garnering public interest in conservation activities. Broader impacts include graduate and undergraduate training, outreach to multiple stakeholders, and development of conservation strategies to enhance adaptive potential in species responding to climate change. With the accelerating pace of both climate change and habitat loss, conservation efforts will need to understand adaptive mechanisms that maximize the chances for species’ persistence. Species distribution models are a critical tool in the conservation “tool box." This research aims to improve predictions of future species responses to climate change by using a mechanistic process incorporating traits, demography and evolutionary processes across scales, using Integral Projection Models (IPMs). The investigators integrate population genetic and phenotypic differentiation mechanisms of adaptation into predictions of range shifts, via IPMs parameterized by experimental data and informed by demographic trade-offs. A key aspect of the intellectual merit of this proposal lies in the development of demographic distribution models (DDMs), a new class of species distribution model that can incorporate evolutionary mechanisms into ecological and biogeographic predictions. Although developed for the focal species, California poppy, these models will be broadly transferable to other widespread, foundational species with conservation, habitat restoration, and/or economic significance. Training of graduate and undergraduate students in interdisciplinary research aimed at promoting professional development and broadening participation of groups traditionally under-represented in STEM is an integral part of the project.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.