Modelling the distribution of a folivorous lemur under the impact of climate change

该项目旨在为马达加斯加多刺森林生态系统的狐猴和其他脊椎动物的简单分布模式制定原则。现代物种分布模型以遥感技术提供的高科技投入为基础，结合了复杂的计算算法和气候变化情景。虽然这些模型可以促进我们对物种的约束条件的理解，它们与其他物种和环境的相互作用，并根据特定的情景预测未来的变化，但这些模型很少应用于实际的生物多样性管理。其原因可能是，实地行为者没有获得技能所需的技能、时间和指导，或处理这些模型的技术手段。拟议的研究将使用谷歌地球上简单和免费提供的图像，为保护管理人员制定决策规则，以评估马达加斯加全球独特的多刺森林生态系统的状况。多刺森林与较潮湿的森林明显不同，其结构非常不同（例如树冠很小的树木），森林分类的标准标准没有包括这些结构。我们将使用实地和案头研究的迭代方法，将这些制约因素与谷歌地球图像上可识别的森林特征联系起来。为此，我们将利用以前对食叶狐猴物种（Lepilemur petteri）的工作。该物种主要以树叶为食，需要特定的树木特征，这些特征应该适合在谷歌地球图像上直接识别或通过在更大范围内识别代理。一方面，通过将多刺森林生态系统的结构特征与狐猴（特别是Lepilemur petteri）的需求联系起来，另一方面，通过将其与可以在免费获得的遥感数据中测量的特征联系起来，我们的目标是为多刺森林生态系统的有效保护规划提供一种低成本的工具。

The project aims to develop principles for simple distribution models for lemurs and other vertebrates of the spiny forest ecosystem in Madagascar. Modern species distribution models are based on high-tech input provided by remote sensing techniques, combined with sophisticated computing algorithms and climate change scenarios. While these models can advance our understanding of the constraints acting upon species, their interaction with other species and the environment, and make predictions of future changes based on specific scenarios, these models are applied rarely in actual biodiversity management. Reasons for this could be that actors on the ground do not have the skills, the time and guidance needed to acquire the skills, or the technical means to process these models. The proposed study will use simple and freely available images from Google Earth to develop decision rules for conservation managers for assessing the state of the globally unique spiny forest ecosystems in Madagascar. The spiny forests differ markedly from more humid forests and have very different structures (such as trees with very small crowns) that are not captured by the standard criteria for forest classification. We will use an iterative approach of field and desk studies to link these constraining components to features of forests recognizable on Google Earth images. For this, we will take advantage of the previous work on a folivorous lemur species (Lepilemur petteri). This species is feeding mostly on leaves and requires specific tree characteristics that should be suitable either for direct identification on Google Earth images or by identifying proxies on larger scales. By linking structural characteristics of the spiny forest ecosystem to the needs of lemurs (specifically Lepilemur petteri) on the one hand, and to features that can be measured in freely available remote sensing data, we aim to provide a low-cost tool for effective conservation planning in spiny forest ecosystems.