Redistributing the risk and repercussions of climate shocks through trade

气候变化对农业的物理影响在空间和时间上以不可预测的方式变化，给农民、消费者和政府带来了巨大的风险。这些风险可以通过改变种植方式、储存作物以及通过贸易来管理。然而，这些风险管理策略如何相互作用，共同重新分配气候变化对农业的风险和影响，目前还不清楚。为了弥补这一差距，该项目发展了一套关于风险管理如何影响贸易政策和贸易量的理论，量化了贸易模式的持久性，并汇集了卫星数据和行政数据，以记录风险在大规模种植决策中的作用。此外，该项目将这些结果与气候模型相结合，以改进对气候损害的预测，为气候、贸易和援助政策讨论提供信息。此外，该项目还整合了K-12阶段教育活动的共同开发。它促进了研究生和本科生的培训，强调扩大代表性不足群体学生的参与。地方风险管理工具和贸易可能会共同改变气候损害的分布，但往往是单独调查的。本项目(a)推动将风险意识行为整合到一般均衡贸易模型中，(b)应用计量经济学工具量化风险如何影响贸易持续性、贸易政策干预（如出口禁令）以及农民种植什么，以及(c)将这些进展与气候模型相结合，以改进对气候引起的农业损失将在何时何地发生的预测。由此产生的预测为正在进行的有关气候政策、金融、粮食安全以及有针对性的干预措施的谈判提供了信息，以帮助面临最大风险的人群。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The physical impacts of climate change on agriculture vary in unpredictable ways across both space and time, creating substantial risks for farmers, consumers, and governments. Those risks can be managed by changing what is planted, storing crops, and through trade. However, it is not well understood how those risk management strategies interact to jointly redistribute the risks and impacts of climate change on agriculture. To address that gap, the project develops a theory on how risk management affects trade policy and volumes, quantifies the persistence of trade patterns, and brings together satellite and administrative data to document the role of risk in planting decisions at scale. Further, the project pairs these results with climate models to refine projections of climate damages, informing climate, trade, and aid policy discussions. In addition, the project integrates the co-development of educational activities at the K-12 level. It advances the training of graduate and undergraduate students, emphasizing broadening participation among students from underrepresented groups.Local risk management tools and trade are likely to alter the distribution of climate damages jointly but are often investigated separately. This project (a) advances the integration of risk-aware behavior into general equilibrium trade models, (b) applies econometric tools to quantify how risk shapes trade persistence, trade policy intervention (e.g., export bans), and what farmers plant, and (c) couples those advances with climate models to improve predictions about when and where climate-induced agricultural losses will be felt. The resulting predictions inform ongoing negotiations about climate policy, finance, food security, and targeted interventions to assist people at the greatest risk.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.