Atomic Anxiety in the New Nuclear Age: How Can Arms Control and Disarmament Reduce the Risk of Nuclear War?

新核时代的原子焦虑：军控与裁军如何降低核战争风险？

• 批准号: MR/X034690/1
• 负责人: Rhys Crilley
• 金额: $ 146.51万
• 依托单位: University of Glasgow
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FX034690%2F1
• 关键词: Atomic; Anxiety; New; Nuclear; Age

This project examines how nuclear arms control and disarmament efforts can be developed to reduce and avert the risk of nuclear conflict. According to the Secretary General of the United Nations, the world has entered 'a time of nuclear danger not seen since the height of the Cold War'. This dangerous 'new nuclear age' is the result of arms control treaties collapsing, rising tensions between nuclear weapon states, and threats to use nuclear weapons such as those made by Vladimir Putin, who has warned of 'ominous consequences' against anyone who opposes his invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, all of the nuclear weapon states are modernising or increasing their nuclear arsenals. In this context of heightened atomic anxiety, this project investigates how the legitimacy of nuclear weapons is communicated, constructed, and contested, and then examines how nuclear arms control and disarmament efforts can be improved based on these insights. Despite the catastrophic potential of even a small nuclear conflict, states continue to maintain, modernise, and increase their nuclear weapons arsenals. Why? This project addresses this puzzle and has two central aims. First, it seeks to understand how and why states claim legitimacy for their nuclear weapons in this 'new nuclear age', as well as understanding how other political actors and members of the public consent to, acquiesce or challenge these claims. Second, the project critically assesses how the risk of nuclear war can be mitigated through improving nuclear arms control and disarmament advocacy and mechanisms so that they gain more international support.The project delivers these aims through innovative, mixed methods research of multiple data sources. These methods include: 1) documentary analysis of policy documents, military doctrine, and diplomatic statements, 2) discourse analysis of news media and social media content on the topic of nuclear weapons, 3) interviews and focus groups with policymakers, nuclear arms control and disarmament advocates, and members of the public. The project will support two post-doctoral positions and a PhD studentship (funded by the University of Glasgow), thereby building capacity for a world-leading team on nuclear arms control and disarmament.Through this research, the project will provide: a) a global mapping of all UN member state policies and their framing of nuclear weapons in the 'new nuclear age', b) an understanding of global opinion about nuclear weapons, arms control, and disarmament, that will inform c) a theory of change for how arms control and disarmament efforts can be developed and improved, so as to further reduce the risk of nuclear conflict, by for example, building support for arms control and disarmament with international policymakers and the public. In doing so, the project contributes to academic literatures on international security, nuclear disarmament, and social movements. Significantly, the project also has high impact utility for policymakers and advocacy organisations who have agreed to be project partners - such as the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (winners of the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize), the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, the British American Security Information Council, and Reaching Critical Will - who work to reduce the risk of nuclear war.

该项目审查如何开展核军备控制和裁军努力，以减少和避免核冲突的风险。据联合国秘书长称，世界已经进入“冷战高峰以来从未见过的核危险时期”。这个危险的“新核时代”是军控条约崩溃、核武器国家之间紧张局势加剧以及弗拉基米尔普京（Vladimir Putin）等威胁使用核武器的结果。普京曾警告说，任何反对他入侵乌克兰的人都将面临“不祥的后果”。与此同时，所有核武器国家都在现代化或增加其核武库。在原子焦虑加剧的背景下，该项目调查了核武器的合法性是如何被传达，构建和争议的，然后研究如何根据这些见解改善核军备控制和裁军努力。尽管即使是一场小规模的核冲突也有可能造成灾难性的后果，但各国仍在继续维持、更新和增加其核武库。为什么？为什么？这个项目解决了这个难题，有两个中心目标。首先，它试图了解国家如何以及为什么在这个“新核时代”声称其核武器的合法性，以及了解其他政治行为者和公众成员如何同意，默许或挑战这些主张。第二，该项目严格评估如何通过改善核军备控制和裁军宣传和机制来减轻核战争的风险，以便获得更多的国际支持。该项目通过多种数据来源的创新混合方法研究来实现这些目标。这些方法包括：1）对政策文件、军事理论和外交声明进行文献分析，2）对新闻媒体和社交媒体有关核武器问题的内容进行话语分析，3）对政策制定者、核军备控制和裁军倡导者以及公众进行访谈和焦点小组讨论。该项目将支持两个博士后职位和一个博士生奖学金（由格拉斯哥大学资助），从而为世界领先的核军备控制和裁军团队建设能力。通过这项研究，该项目将提供：a）对所有联合国会员国的政策及其在“新核时代”的核武器框架进行全球性的描绘，B）了解全球对核武器的看法，（c）提出一种变革理论，说明如何发展和改进军备控制和裁军努力，以进一步减少核冲突的风险，例如，通过争取国际决策者和公众对军备控制和裁军的支持。在此过程中，该项目为国际安全、核裁军和社会运动方面的学术文献做出了贡献。值得注意的是，该项目对同意成为项目合作伙伴的政策制定者和倡导组织（如国际废除核武器运动）也具有很高的影响效用（2017年诺贝尔和平奖获得者）、核裁军运动、核时代和平基金会、英美安全信息理事会、和达成关键意愿--他们致力于减少核战争的风险。