Government-imposed Restrictions on International Economic Relations

关键是要了解决策者如何决定是否施加限制以及施加何种限制，以及经济限制如何影响对政府目标的遵守。在最糟糕的情况下，制裁可能会适得其反，削弱这个民族国家目前占据的有利地位，同时潜在地增强对国际影响力的日益崛起的挑战者的能力。该项目涉及收集各国和国际组织所有政府授权的制裁和出口管制的原始数据。主要调查人员将使用这些数据来了解何时使用不同种类和组合的经济限制，这些限制何时有效，以及何时最有可能适得其反。该项目将帮助决策者和学者更好地理解旨在胁迫和遏制对手和其他目标的经济限制的有效性。该项目还将提供有关目标如何将失去的商业重新定向到新的第三方，以及随后的经济和政治关系如何演变的见解。以每一项限制(具体的被禁止的互动)为分析单位，政府对国际经济关系施加的限制(GRIER)将对1992年至2022年期间政府强制实施的所有商品、服务、技术、资金、金融和投资限制，以及对旅行、媒体和外交的限制进行编码。首席调查人员还将构建时变的、可比较的指标，以衡量目标的每一项经济限制的全面性和严重性。使用格里尔的数据集，首席研究人员将系统地测试两个广泛的研究问题。首先，是什么影响了政府施加的经济限制的构成和严重程度--无论是专门针对政府、个人还是其他实体？第二，经济限制的构成如何不仅影响目标让步的可能性，而且影响更广泛的经济和政治网络的重塑？这一裁决反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

It is crucial to understand how decision makers decide whether and what kinds of restrictions to impose, as well as the manner in which economic restrictions affect compliance with a government's goals. In the worst case, sanctions can backfire, undermining the advantageous position the nation-state currently occupies, while potentially empowering rising challengers for international influence. This project involves the collection of original data on all government-mandated sanctions and export controls by nations and international organizations. Principal investigators will use these data to understand when different kinds and combinations of economic restrictions are used, when these restrictions are effective, and when they are most likely to be counterproductive. The project will help decision makers and scholars better understand the effectiveness of economic restrictions aimed at coercion and containment of adversaries and other goals. The project will also provide insights into how targets try to redirect lost commerce to new third parties, and how economic and political relationships subsequently evolve.Using each restriction (the specific prohibited interaction) as the unit of analysis, the Government-imposed Restrictions on International Economic Relations project (GRIER) will code all government-mandated restrictions on the international flow of goods, services, technology, money, finance, and investment, as well as restrictions on travel, media, and diplomacy for the years spanning 1992 to 2022. Principal investigators will also construct time-varying, comparable indicators of the comprehensiveness and severity of each economic restriction for the target. Using the GRIER dataset, principal investigators will systematically test two broad research questions. First, what affects the composition and severity of government-imposed economic restrictions—whether specifically against governments, individuals, or other entities? Second, how does the composition of economic restrictions affect not only the likelihood of target concession, but the broader reshaping of economic and political networks?This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.