Government-imposed Restrictions on International Economic Relations

了解决策者如何决定是否以及实施何种限制，以及经济限制以何种方式影响对政府目标的遵守，这一点至关重要。在最坏的情况下，制裁可能会适得其反，削弱民族国家目前占据的优势地位，同时可能赋予正在崛起的国际影响力挑战者力量。该项目涉及收集各国和国际组织关于所有政府授权的制裁和出口管制的原始数据。主要研究人员将使用这些数据来了解何时使用不同种类和组合的经济限制，何时这些限制是有效的，以及何时它们最有可能适得其反。该项目将帮助决策者和学者更好地了解旨在胁迫和遏制对手及其他目标的经济限制的有效性。该项目还将深入研究目标如何试图将失去的商业转移到新的第三方，以及经济和政治关系随后如何演变。政府对国际经济关系施加的限制项目（GRIER）将以每项限制（具体禁止的互动）为分析单位，对1992年至2022年期间政府对商品、服务、技术、资金、金融和投资的国际流动施加的所有限制以及对旅行、媒体和外交的限制进行编码。主要研究人员还将为目标的每项经济限制的全面性和严重性构建时变的、可比较的指标。使用GRIER数据集，主要研究人员将系统地测试两个广泛的研究问题。首先，是什么影响了政府施加的经济限制的构成和严重程度——无论是针对政府、个人还是其他实体？其次，经济限制的构成不仅会影响目标让步的可能性，还会影响更广泛的经济和政治网络的重塑？该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

It is crucial to understand how decision makers decide whether and what kinds of restrictions to impose, as well as the manner in which economic restrictions affect compliance with a government's goals. In the worst case, sanctions can backfire, undermining the advantageous position the nation-state currently occupies, while potentially empowering rising challengers for international influence. This project involves the collection of original data on all government-mandated sanctions and export controls by nations and international organizations. Principal investigators will use these data to understand when different kinds and combinations of economic restrictions are used, when these restrictions are effective, and when they are most likely to be counterproductive. The project will help decision makers and scholars better understand the effectiveness of economic restrictions aimed at coercion and containment of adversaries and other goals. The project will also provide insights into how targets try to redirect lost commerce to new third parties, and how economic and political relationships subsequently evolve.Using each restriction (the specific prohibited interaction) as the unit of analysis, the Government-imposed Restrictions on International Economic Relations project (GRIER) will code all government-mandated restrictions on the international flow of goods, services, technology, money, finance, and investment, as well as restrictions on travel, media, and diplomacy for the years spanning 1992 to 2022. Principal investigators will also construct time-varying, comparable indicators of the comprehensiveness and severity of each economic restriction for the target. Using the GRIER dataset, principal investigators will systematically test two broad research questions. First, what affects the composition and severity of government-imposed economic restrictions—whether specifically against governments, individuals, or other entities? Second, how does the composition of economic restrictions affect not only the likelihood of target concession, but the broader reshaping of economic and political networks?This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.