Demographic Change and Regional Labour Markets

关于人口变化的公众和科学讨论，即社会的萎缩和老龄化，集中在人口发展对社会保障制度的影响以及熟练劳动力短缺对经济发展的潜在后果。然而，尽管人口变化显示出相当大的区域差异，但区域视角往往被忽视。关于人口变化对区域劳动力市场的影响，以及劳动力和企业的潜在适应反应，有各种理论考虑。关于人口变化对区域劳动力市场的影响或适应反应的经验证据相对较少，尤其是由于缺乏合适的数据，主要集中在个别地区的案例研究上。由于新获得的数据集，如IAB联邦就业局研究数据中心（FDZ）的就业统计数据，由于居民办公室的移民统计数据可通过联邦统计局获得，加上地理参考数据的可获得性不断增加，现在有可能在区域一级进行更详细的分析。以下问题是研究项目的核心，并将根据经验回答：德国的人口模式在地区差异和相似性方面是什么？这种模式如何与当地劳动力市场的发展相关？各地区不同的年龄结构是否会导致德国境内不同年龄段的国内移徙？哪些地区特征决定了国内和国际移徙者的地点选择？企业如何在就业政策方面对其所在地的人口结构作出反应？年龄结构的变化如何影响工资和财富？在项目的延长中，我们的目标是更详细地分析空间人口极化的发展以及妇女和老年人的劳动力市场参与。前者集中于国际移民的地点选择是否扩大或减轻了德国的空间人口两极分化的问题，而这在项目的第一阶段并不是重点。该项目的第二个目标是调查空间人口变化是否影响妇女和老年人的劳动力供应。

The public and scientific discussion about the demographic change, i.e. the simultaneous shrinkage and aging of society, concentrates on the effects of the demographic development on social security systems and the potential consequences of a shortage in skilled labor for the economic development. The regional perspective, however, is often neglected, although the demographic change shows a considerable regional heterogeneity. There are various theoretical considerations on the effects of demographic change on regional labor markets, as well as on the potential adaptation responses of the workforce and enterprises. Empirical evidence on the regional labor market effects of demographic change or the adaptation reactions is comparatively rare, not least due to the lack of availability of suitable data, and is mainly concentrates on case studies of individual regions.Due to newly available data sets, such as the employment statistics at the Research Data Center (FDZ) of the Federal Agency for Employment at the IAB, the migration statistics of the residents' offices, which can be obtained via the Federal Statistical Office, as well as the growing availability of georeferenced data, more detailed analyses on the regional level are now possible. The following questions are at the center of the research project and are to be answered empirically: What are the demographic patterns in Germany in terms of regional differences and similarities and how do this patterns correlate with the development of local labor markets? Does the regionally heterogeneous age structure lead to age-specific internal migration within Germany and which regional characteristics determine the location choice of internal and international migrants? How do firms react to the demographic structure of their location with regard to their employment policy? How does the changed age structure affect wages and wealth? In the prolongation of the project we aim to analyze the development of spatial demographic polarization in more detail as well as the labor market participation of women and the elderly. The former concentrates on the question whether the location choice of international migrants, which has not been in the focus of the project in its first phase, amplify or mitigate the spatial demographic polarization in Germany. The second goal of the project is to investigate whether spatial demographic change affects the labour supply of women and the elderly.