Collaborative Research: BoCP-Implementation: Testing Evolutionary Models of Biotic Survival and Recovery from the Permo-Triassic Mass Extinction and Climate Crisis

二叠纪-三叠纪大灭绝（PTME，约2.519亿年前）是地球历史上“五大”大灭绝中最具灾难性的一次。大规模的火山事件可能引发了失控的温室效应，导致全球85% -90%的物种灭绝。近20年来的研究一致认为，现代物种损失与PTME相媲美，使其成为连接环境变化与功能生物多样性的重要但未充分利用的“深时间”研究系统。虽然过去的研究主要集中在灭绝的外部原因上，但这项研究将调查南非卡鲁盆地PTME的生态系统恢复。通过预测生物对未来环境变化的长期反应，了解哪些物种和生态系统在过去对气候变暖更脆弱或更有弹性，对于指导保护管理至关重要。这项研究将包括对南非主要卡鲁盆地进行多学科地质年代学和古生物学研究。我们将建立一个脊椎动物化石的地层数据库，研究相对于地质时间尺度的脊椎动物灭绝和恢复的时间，我们将测试生态多样性的脉冲变化是否与不同的气候事件（例如，早三叠纪的高温）相关。为实现这一目标，我们将1)综合地质年代学控制，确定卡鲁盆地二叠系-三叠系界线的精确位置；2)在新的高分辨率地层格架中识别生态形态和体型差异的变化；3)阐明早三叠世气候危机时期群落结构等高层次因素对脊椎动物多样性的影响；4)通过南非当地语言的教育戏剧（木偶星球）、能力建设、永久存档实物标本和数字数据以供未来研究（虚拟实地考察、博物馆展览升级），以及加强美国和南非之间的国际合作，强调公众外展。我们的合作研究和推广活动将提高人们对极端环境不稳定对脊椎动物功能多样性和尺寸进化的影响的认识，不仅对了解PTME具有重要价值，而且对我们现代生物多样性危机的保护工作具有重要价值。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The Permo-Triassic mass extinction (PTME, ca. 251.9 million years ago) was the most catastrophic of the “Big Five” mass extinctions in Earth’s history. Massive volcanic events likely triggered a runaway greenhouse, resulting in the loss of about 85-90% of species globally. Studies over the last 20 years agree that modern species loss rivals the PTME, making it a significant and underutilized “deep time” study system that connects environmental change to functional biodiversity. While past studies have focused on the external causes of the extinction, this research will investigate ecosystem recovery from the PTME in South Africa’s Karoo Basin. Awareness of which species and ecosystems were more vulnerable or resilient to climate warming in the past is essential to guide conservation management by predicting long-term biotic responses to future environmental change.This research will comprise a multidisciplinary geochronologic and paleontological study of South Africa’s main Karoo Basin. We will assemble a stratigraphic database of fossil vertebrate occurrences and investigate the timing of vertebrate extinction and recovery relative to the geologic timescale, and we will test whether pulsed shifts in ecological diversity correlate to distinct climate events (e.g., the Early Triassic hyperthermal). To achieve these goals, we will 1) Synthesize geochronologic age controls and identify the precise position of the Permo-Triassic boundary in the Karoo Basin; 2) Identify shifts in ecomorphological and body size disparity within a novel high resolution stratigraphic framework; 3) Elucidate the influence of higher-level factors such as community structure on vertebrate diversity during the Early Triassic climate crisis; 4) Emphasize public outreach through educational theater in local South African languages (Puppet Planet), capacity-building, permanent archiving of physical specimens and digital data for future study (Virtual Field Trips, museum exhibit upgrades), and strengthening international collaborations between the USA and South Africa. Our collaborative research and outreach initiatives will raise awareness of the impacts of extreme environmental instability on vertebrate functional diversity and size evolution over time, with great value not only for understanding the PTME, but also conservation efforts in our modern biodiversity crisis.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.