Global Centers Track 2: A multi-disciplinary framework to combat climate-induced desert locust upsurges, outbreaks, and plagues in East Africa

政府间气候变化专门委员会的最新报告(于2023年发布)强调，气候变化对东非近5亿人的影响不成比例，主要是由于极端天气事件的频率和强度不断增加。据推测，东非沙漠地区气温和降雨量的增加，以及与热带气旋相关的强风，为沙漠蝗虫的爆发提供了有利条件。然而，气候条件变化对蝗虫动态和迁徙路径的具体影响还没有完全了解。沙漠蝗虫暴发是东非许多地区的一个问题，它们严重威胁布隆迪、科摩罗、吉布提、埃塞俄比亚、厄立特里亚、肯尼亚、卢旺达、塞舌尔、索马里、南苏丹、苏丹、坦桑尼亚和乌干达社区的生计。在这些地区，农作物因昆虫造成的损失预计将增加高达50%，同时全球变暖将增加2摄氏度。缓解蝗虫暴发的措施需要全面和协调的应对努力，包括设计预警系统、纳入持续监测计划、开发预测模型、以创新和可获取的方式传播信息和产品，以便在地方一级开展预防和干预工作。该项目将制定有效的战略，以减轻东非未来因气候变化引起的蝗虫暴发。通过让相关学科的学术研究人员和受影响社区的当地专家参与进来，我们将建立持久的伙伴关系，以调查和应用可持续的缓解战略。我们方法的一个核心方面是开发一种移动应用程序，使农民和有关个人能够获取实时信息并报告蝗虫暴发的目击情况。该项目将测试现有的蝗虫监测计划，并利用“蝗虫对社区的风险”框架创建一个具有基于位置的信息的互动门户和应用程序。该平台将促进数据收集和分析，最终形成未来全球气候变化中心的基础，该中心支持世界最不发达国家的气候变化缓解和适应努力。全球中心的发展还将通过设在格拉斯哥州立大学灾害信息学和计算流行病学中心的中央网络基础设施促进数据和分析结果的共享。我们的项目旨在促进在东非及其他地区制定创新的蝗虫暴发缓解战略，利用技术和跨学科合作来应对气候变化给脆弱人口带来的紧迫挑战。该奖项由全球中心计划资助，这是一项创新计划，旨在支持受使用启发的研究，以应对与气候变化和/或清洁能源相关的全球挑战。Track 2设计奖支持美国的研究人员将国际团队聚集在一起，开发研究问题和合作伙伴关系，进行景观分析，合成数据，和/或建立多方利益相关者网络，以推动他们未来更大规模的应用启发研究。  该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The latest IPCC report (released in 2023) highlights that climate change disproportionately affects nearly half a billion people in eastern Africa, mainly resulting from the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Increases in temperature and rainfall over desert areas in eastern Africa, and the strong winds associated with tropical cyclones, are postulated to provide favorable conditions for desert locust outbreaks. However, the specific impacts of changing climate conditions on locust dynamics and migration pathways are not fully understood. Desert locust outbreaks are a problem for many parts of eastern Africa where they seriously threaten the livelihoods of communities residing in Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. In these areas crop losses to insects are projected to increase by up to 50% with an additional 2°C of global warming. Locust outbreak mitigation measures require comprehensive and coordinated response efforts inclusive of designing an early warning system, incorporating a continuous surveillance scheme, developing predictive models, innovative, accessible dissemination of information and products that permit prevention and intervention efforts at the local level. This project would develop effective strategies for mitigating future locust outbreaks driven by climate change in eastern Africa. By engaging academic researchers from relevant disciplines and local experts within affected communities, we will establish lasting partnerships to investigate and apply sustainable mitigation strategies. A central aspect of our approach is developing a mobile application that allows farmers and concerned individuals to access real-time information and report sightings of locust outbreaks. The project will test existing locust surveillance schemes and utilize a 'locust risk to communities' framework to create an interactive portal and application with location-based information. This platform will facilitate data collection and analysis, ultimately forming the basis for a future Global Climate Change Center that supports climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts in the world's least developed countries. The development of the global center will also facilitate the sharing of data and analytical results through a centralized cyberinfrastructure hosted at the Center for Disaster Informatics and Computational Epidemiology at GSU. Our project seeks to contribute to developing innovative locust outbreak mitigation strategies in eastern Africa and beyond, leveraging technology and interdisciplinary collaborations to address the pressing challenges climate change poses on vulnerable populations. This award is funded by the Global Centers program, an innovative program that supports use-inspired research addressing global challenges related to climate change and/or clean energy. Track 2 design awards support U.S.-based researchers to bring together international teams to develop research questions and partnerships, conduct landscape analyses, synthesize data, and/or build multi-stakeholder networks to advance their use-inspired research at larger scale in the future.  This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.