Global Centers Track 2: Building the Global Center for Forecasting Freshwater Futures

全球中心轨道 2：建立全球淡水未来预测中心

• 批准号: 2330211
• 负责人: Cayelan Carey
• 金额: $ 25万
• 依托单位: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-12-15 至 2025-11-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2330211&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Global; Centers; Track; Building; Center

Climate change is degrading water quality in lakes and reservoirs around the globe, motivating the urgent need for new approaches to predict future ecosystem and drinking water conditions for management. This Global Centers Track 2 Design project will create the groundwork for developing a global center to provide scientists, managers, and the public in the U.S. and Australia with state-of-the-art, real-time water quality forecasts and decision support tools for lakes and reservoirs. The system will be deployed and tested at four lakes facing a range of climate change threats. Daily forecasts will be generated for a suite of water quality variables and methane emissions, which can inform adaptive monitoring and preemptive management (e.g., divert water from other reservoirs, increase water flows to reduce methane production). Interactive educational materials will be developed and assessed to train managers and community members on freshwater forecasting. A broad community of American and Australian students, academic researchers, government officials, industry representatives, water managers, and the public will be engaged in all center activities, setting the stage for future global engagement via partnerships with multiple international initiatives. The project’s overarching goal is to develop the foundation for an international forecasting center that predicts lake and reservoir water quality across the U.S. and Australia to enable climate change adaptation and mitigation. Lakes in both the U.S. and Australia are experiencing severe, detrimental effects of climate change, motivating the need for a future Global Center that integrates unique water quality models, sensor networks, and research networks across the two countries. As part of the center’s design and planning activities, researchers from six U.S. and Australian organizations will work together to scale existing resources (forecasting software, lake ecosystem models, sensor networks, translational tools, and training programs) to create forecasts for four focal lakes in the U.S. and Australia that are experiencing extreme water quality changes due to altered climate. The center will advance fundamental understanding of the effects of altered climate on lake ecosystems and enable managers to increase climate change resilience. This project will result in six major advances: 1) an established American-Australian community of water researchers, managers, industry officials, and government representatives working together to mitigate the effects of climate change on lakes and reservoirs; 2) lake forecasting systems generating real-time predictions of water quality and methane emissions to inform management; 3) water quality and methane forecasting models for each lake; 4) forecast visualizations and decision support tools; 5) open-access teaching modules; and 6) critical knowledge on the responses of freshwater ecosystems to climate change. This award is funded by the Global Centers program, an innovative program that supports use-inspired research addressing global challenges related to climate change and/or clean energy. Track 2 design awards support U.S.-based researchers to bring together international teams to develop research questions and partnerships, conduct landscape analyses, synthesize data, and/or build multi-stakeholder networks to advance their use-inspired research at larger scale in the future.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

气候变化正在使地球仪湖泊和水库的水质恶化，迫切需要新的方法来预测未来的生态系统和饮用水条件，以便进行管理。这个全球中心第二轨道设计项目将为开发一个全球中心奠定基础，为美国和澳大利亚的科学家，管理人员和公众提供最先进的实时水质预测和湖泊和水库的决策支持工具。该系统将在面临一系列气候变化威胁的四湖进行部署和测试。将生成一套水质变量和甲烷排放的每日预测，这可以为适应性监测和先发制人的管理提供信息（例如，从其他水库引水，增加水流量以减少甲烷产量）。将编制和评估互动教育材料，以培训管理人员和社区成员进行淡水预报。由美国和澳大利亚学生、学术研究人员、政府官员、行业代表、水资源管理人员和公众组成的广泛社区将参与中心的所有活动，通过与多个国际倡议的伙伴关系为未来的全球参与奠定基础。该项目的总体目标是为一个国际预报中心奠定基础，该中心预测美国和澳大利亚的湖泊和水库水质，以适应和减缓气候变化。 美国和澳大利亚的湖泊正在经历气候变化的严重不利影响，这促使人们需要一个未来的全球中心，将两国独特的水质模型，传感器网络和研究网络整合在一起。作为该中心设计和规划活动的一部分，来自六个美国和澳大利亚组织的研究人员将共同努力，扩大现有资源（预测软件，湖泊生态系统模型，传感器网络，翻译工具和培训计划），为美国和澳大利亚的四个焦点湖泊创建预测，这些湖泊由于气候变化而经历极端的水质变化。该中心将促进对气候变化对湖泊生态系统影响的基本理解，并使管理人员能够提高气候变化的适应能力。该项目将带来六项重大进展：1）建立一个由水研究人员、管理人员、行业官员和政府代表组成的美国-澳大利亚社区，共同努力减轻气候变化对湖泊和水库的影响; 2）湖泊预测系统，生成水质和甲烷排放的实时预测，为管理提供信息; 3）每个湖泊的水质和甲烷预测模型; 4）预测可视化和决策支持工具; 5）开放获取的教学模块;和6）关于淡水生态系统对气候变化的反应的关键知识。 该奖项由全球中心计划资助，该计划是一项创新计划，支持以使用为灵感的研究，解决与气候变化和/或清洁能源相关的全球挑战。途径2设计奖支持美国-该奖项旨在鼓励国际研究团队共同开发研究问题和合作伙伴关系，进行景观分析，综合数据和/或建立多方利益相关者网络，以在未来更大规模地推进其使用启发式研究。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。