NSF-JST: An Inclusive Human-Centered Risk Management Modeling Framework for Flood Resilience

现代洪水风险受到自然运行方式（如降雨如何变成溪流）和人们如何组织事物（如如何保护财产）的影响。要全面研究洪水风险，必须关注特定的空间尺度，认识这些区域内的变化，并评估洪水对社会的持久影响。该项目由美国国家科学基金会（NSF）和日本科学技术振兴机构（JST）联合支持，将一组科学家聚集在一起进行研究，开发一种新的计算机建模方法，帮助我们更好地理解和管理洪水风险。这种方法旨在创建一个建模系统，该系统考虑了研究区域的自然条件，人们对洪水的看法和经验，以及政府对收购和保险的政策等因素。最重要的是，该研究明确考虑了洪水对弱势群体的不同影响，包括低收入、少数民族、残疾人和老年人。该项目围绕三个研究任务展开。第一个重点是建立一个全面的美日洪水风险数据清单，集中于与边缘群体有关的现有和缺失的数据。这项工作为两国未来的洪水合作研究奠定了基础。第二个研究任务是建立一个考虑边缘和非边缘群体的双向耦合、多尺度、基于agent的洪水风险巨灾模型。这种国际合作确保了日本和美国不同文化和社会因素的融合。第三项研究任务是通过与一个跨国项目咨询委员会共同创建气候变化和社会经济情景来分析洪水风险和恢复能力。该项目为下一代洪水建模形成了有意义的跨太平洋伙伴关系，并推进了仙台框架的四个优先领域：1)了解灾害风险；2)加强灾害风险治理；3)投资于灾害风险抵御能力；四是加强防灾准备。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Modern flood risk is influenced by the way nature works (such as how rainfall becomes streamflow) and how people organize things (such as how properties are protected). To comprehensively study flood risk, one must focus on specific spatial scales, acknowledge variations within those areas, and evaluate the lasting impacts of floods on society. This project, jointly supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in the US and the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), brings a team of scientists together to perform research that will develop a novel computer modeling approach that helps us understand and manage flood risk better. This approach is designed to create a modeling system that considers the natural conditions of the study area, people's perceptions and experiences related to floods, and factors such as governmental policies on buyouts and insurance. Most importantly, the research explicitly considers the differential impact of floods on vulnerable groups, including low-income, minority, disabled, and elderly individuals. The project is structured around three research tasks. The first focuses on establishing a comprehensive US-Japan flood risk data inventory, concentrating on existing and missing data related to marginalized groups. The work serves as a foundation for future collaborative flood research between the two countries. The second research task involves the development of a two-way coupled, multi-scale, agent-based flood risk catastrophe model that considers both marginalized and non-marginalized groups. This international collaboration ensures the incorporation of diverse cultural and societal factors from Japan and the US. The third research task centers on analyzing flood risks and resilience by jointly creating climate change and socioeconomic scenarios with an inter-country project advisory board. This project forms a meaningful trans-Pacific partnership for the next generation of flood modeling and advances the four priority areas of the Sendai Framework: 1) understanding disaster risk; 2) strengthening disaster risk governance; 3) investing in disaster risk resilience; and 4) enhancing disaster preparedness.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.