Doctoral Dissertation Research: Human long term adaptation to prehistoric ENSO-driven flooding

博士论文研究：人类对史前 ENSO 驱动洪水的长期适应

• 批准号: 2347965
• 负责人: Benjamin Vining
• 金额: $ 2.26万
• 依托单位: University of Arkansas
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-02-15 至 2025-01-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2347965&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Human; long

This doctoral dissertation research examines the impact of flooding generated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to understand the vulnerability of agricultural communities to extreme environmental variability. ENSO causes shifts in precipitation in arid coastal areas which can cause flash flooding and severe damage. This study emphasizes how changing floodplain morphology can make it more difficult for people to reduce their exposure to these floods. Flood events can alter the landscape to the extent that peoples’ capabilities to adapt to future events are limited. Consequently, knowledge about how to adapt to these events must be updated to deal with future potential hazards. Communities must continuously experience, observe, and communicate as they adjust over centuries and millennia to evolving floodplain conditions. Archaeology is well-suited to examine these processes of adapting to the evolution of river hazards. Attention to ancient settlement patterns and their respective floodplain environments reveals how societies mitigated potential flooding by finding elevated areas and generating flood-adapted infrastructure. Interpretations of this data inform modern mitigation efforts as flooding is an ongoing, dynamic risk experienced increasingly by populations worldwide. The interdisciplinary project consists of two parts: integrated hydrologic modeling to predict river behavior and a geological study of sediment sampled from past floods. The model uses historic stream flows, geospatial data, paleoclimatic reconstructions, and ethnohistoric accounts to determine ENSO flood hotspots. Additionally, paleochannels and remnant riverbeds are significant conduits of and contributors to overland flooding. Given their longevity in floodplain geomorphology, they serve as critical indicators for where past and future flooding might occur. Researchers study 650 previously surveyed archaeological sites in a single river valley to determine their exposure to increasing ENSO flood magnitudes in the floodplain and alluvial fan. The team utilizes geophysical and geochemical methods to evaluate soil characteristics in paleochannels to ascertain the impacts of flooding on the long-term stability and primary productivity of bankside landscapes. Leveraging multiple approaches to investigating flooding, this project contributes to archaeological methods and theories regarding flood risk, water resource management, and land use to explore past human-environment interactions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

本博士论文研究了厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）产生的洪水的影响，以了解农业社区对极端环境变化的脆弱性。厄尔尼诺/南方涛动造成干旱沿海地区降水量的变化，可能造成山洪暴发和严重破坏。这项研究强调了如何改变洪泛区的形态可以使人们更难减少他们暴露于这些洪水。洪水事件可以改变景观，以至于人们适应未来事件的能力受到限制。因此，必须更新关于如何适应这些事件的知识，以应对未来的潜在危险。社区必须不断地经历，观察和沟通，因为他们在几个世纪和几千年来不断变化的洪泛区条件进行调整。考古学非常适合研究这些适应河流灾害演变的过程。对古代定居点模式及其各自洪泛区环境的关注揭示了社会如何通过寻找高地和建立适应洪水的基础设施来减轻潜在的洪水。对这些数据的解释为现代减灾工作提供了信息，因为洪水是一种持续的、动态的风险，世界各地的人口越来越多地经历着这种风险。该跨学科项目包括两个部分：预测河流行为的综合水文建模和对过去洪水中采样的沉积物的地质研究。该模型使用历史水流，地理空间数据，古气候重建和民族历史帐户，以确定ENSO洪水热点。此外，古河道和残留河床是重要的渠道和贡献者的陆上洪水。鉴于它们在洪泛区地貌中的寿命，它们可以作为过去和未来洪水可能发生的关键指标。研究人员研究了650个先前调查过的单一河谷中的考古遗址，以确定它们在洪泛平原和冲积扇中受到ENSO洪水强度增加的影响。该团队利用地球物理和地球化学方法评估古河道的土壤特性，以确定洪水对河岸景观的长期稳定性和初级生产力的影响。利用多种方法来调查洪水，该项目有助于考古方法和理论，洪水风险，水资源管理和土地利用，以探索过去的人类与环境的相互作用。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过评估使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准的支持。