CAREER: A system of pleas: Using a role-playing simulation to test plea decision models

职业：抗辩系统：使用角色扮演模拟来测试抗辩决策模型

• 批准号: 2348375
• 负责人: Miko Wilford
• 金额: $ 49.76万
• 依托单位: Iowa State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-10-01 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2348375&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; system; pleas; Using; role

Every United States citizen is guaranteed a number of unique rights: the right to a jury of our peers; the right to confront our accusers; the right to present our own witnesses--ultimately, the right to a speedy and public trial. Those fortunate enough to avoid the scrutiny of the justice system never need exercise these rights. Those who do find themselves entangled in the criminal justice system also rarely exercise these rights. Today's accused frequently forgo their right to a trial, and all related rights, by entering a guilty plea. Guilty pleas have been increasing over the last 40 years and now account for over 95% of criminal convictions. The shift away from trials and toward pleas has unquestionably increased judicial efficiency, allowing defendants faster case resolutions. Consequently, it is not the increase in pleas, but the increase in false guilty pleas--cases in which a defendant subsequently proven innocent pleads guilty--that is particularly worrying. The National Registry of Exonerations has reported that guilty pleas were a factor in approximately 15% of wrongful conviction cases, but believes that many more false guilty pleas have never, and will never be discovered. Juvenile defendants are especially vulnerable to pleading guilty falsely. Given the transformation of our criminal justice system to one of pleas, it is of critical importance that we increase our understanding of what factors might lead one to plead guilty, especially when factually innocent.Our current understanding of the "deals" that lead so many to plead guilty is often tied to the shadow-of-the-trial (SoT) model, which posits that plea outcomes rely solely on the discrepancy in penalties from a plea deal versus a trial conviction, factoring in the probability of conviction at trial. Yet, research has shown that both the actual guilt status and age of the accused can significantly and systematically impact plea outcomes. Thus, the research will be conducted with two broad objectives: 1) testing the predictive validity of the SoT model against an updated model, which incorporates an interactive effect of guilt status and age on plea outcomes; and 2) expanding, testing, and disseminating novel plea-simulation software designed for both research and educational purposes. The research will employ a 2 (innocent or guilty) x 3 (conviction probability: 20%, 50%, or 80%) x 3 (plea penalty/offer: 6 months, 12 months, or 18 months) between-participants design. We will recruit a sample of college students, an adult sample, and a juvenile sample. The results of the proposed research could have important policy implications regarding current plea procedures. If, for instance, significant penalty discrepancies are shown to impact the innocent more than the guilty, it would provide justification for reining in the discounts prosecutors can offer during plea negotiations. Additionally, the simulation software will include an educational extension designed to improve comprehension of the plea process and its consequences among juveniles. Ultimately, the research will contribute significantly to understanding of how cases are now adjudicated in the United States.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

每个美国公民都有一些独特的权利得到保障：由我们的同龄人组成的陪审团的权利;与我们的原告对质的权利;提出我们自己的证人的权利-最终，得到迅速和公开审判的权利。那些幸运地避免了司法系统审查的人永远不需要行使这些权利。那些发现自己卷入刑事司法系统的人也很少行使这些权利。今天的被告经常放弃他们的审判权，以及所有相关的权利，进入认罪。在过去的40年里，认罪一直在增加，现在占刑事定罪的95%以上。从审判到答辩的转变无疑提高了司法效率，使被告能够更快地解决案件。因此，特别令人担忧的不是认罪的增加，而是虚假认罪的增加----在这些案件中，被告后来被证明无罪而认罪。国家免罪登记处报告说，认罪是大约15%的错误定罪案件的一个因素，但认为更多的错误认罪从来没有，也永远不会被发现。青少年被告特别容易受到虚假认罪的伤害。鉴于我们的刑事司法系统正在向认罪转变，我们必须进一步了解哪些因素可能导致一个人认罪，特别是在事实上无罪的情况下。我们目前对导致如此多人认罪的“交易”的理解往往与审判阴影（SoT）模型有关，它假定认罪结果仅仅依赖于认罪协议与审判定罪的刑罚差异，并考虑到审判定罪的可能性。然而，研究表明，被告的实际有罪状态和年龄都可以显着和系统地影响认罪结果。因此，这项研究将有两个广泛的目标：1）测试SoT模型对更新模型的预测有效性，该模型结合了有罪状态和年龄对认罪结果的交互作用; 2）扩展，测试和传播为研究和教育目的而设计的新型认罪模拟软件。该研究将采用2（无罪或有罪）x 3（定罪概率：20%，50%或80%）x 3（认罪/提供：6个月，12个月或18个月）参与者之间的设计。我们将招募一个大学生样本，一个成人样本和一个青少年样本。拟议研究的结果可能对现行认罪程序产生重要的政策影响。例如，如果重大的惩罚差异被证明对无辜者的影响大于对有罪者的影响，那么就有理由限制检察官在认罪谈判期间可以提供的折扣。此外，模拟软件将包括一个教育扩展，旨在提高对认罪过程及其在青少年中的后果的理解。最终，这项研究将大大有助于了解案件是如何在美国现在judged.This奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得的支持，通过评估使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。