Ocean Dynamics Impacting Shelf Sea Level in Eastern Atlantic (ODISSEA)

这是一个由国家科学基金会地球科学局(NSF/GEO)和英国国家环境研究委员会(NERC)通过NSF/GEO-NERC牵头机构协议共同资助的项目。该协定允许美国和英国提交一个单一的联合提案，并由该机构进行同行审查，该机构的调查员在预算中所占比例最大。在成功地联合确定一项奖项建议后，每个机构将为支持各自国家机构科学家的预算比例提供资金。由于陆地冰融化和海洋热膨胀的综合影响，全球平均海平面正在上升。然而，就区域而言，海平面也受到大尺度洋流强度和路径变化的强烈影响，而长期趋势往往被几年来的大幅度变化所掩盖。对沿海社区来说，量化和预测区域模式至关重要，因为极端海平面事件的规模和频率与社会直接相关。在美国东海岸，海平面上升和变化模式与大西洋经向翻转环流(AMOC)有关。然而，在西北部的欧洲大陆架上，人们对AMOC对海平面变化、变异性和极端情况的影响知之甚少。该项目将把直接观测和数值模拟结合起来，以便更好地了解沿海海平面变化在一系列时间尺度上的驱动因素。这种理解对于保护沿海人口、生态系统、基础设施和海洋产业至关重要。对未来海平面变化的高度关注，再加上奥迪西对知识和数据差距的战略关注，确保该项目将在海平面研究界产生重大影响。从该项目中学到的新知识将传播给相关的学术团体(通过影响较大的海洋和气候期刊以及主要的国际会议)和当地的佛罗里达州狭长地带社区，这些社区对海平面上升非常感兴趣(通过COAPS/FSU的教育项目和外展活动)。该项目还将支持FSU一名博士后的培训和职业发展，以获得观测和模型输出的分析经验。该项目包括：1)在月到十年的时间尺度上建立深海环流和陆架海平面变化之间的因果联系；2)估计联合王国西部和爱尔兰未来30年的沿海海平面变化，以便更好地了解这些变化发生的地点和原因；以及3)隔离已观测和预测的AMOC变化对区域海平面变化、可变性和极端的影响。量化和预测区域海平面变化模式的一个关键障碍是了解大陆坡--深海和浅海大陆架之间的界面--上的海洋动力学。从深海流向陆架的洋流既可以继续进入大陆架，也可以进入环绕欧洲西北部陆架的沿坡面的快速边界流。此外，大规模洋流预计将随着气候变暖而变化，预计AMOC将在未来30年内急剧减弱。然而，提供这些预测的气候模型缺乏所需的精细分辨率，无法捕捉这些变化对区域范围内陆架海平面的影响，特别是窄边界流在调节沿海深海环流影响方面的作用。直接观测和高分辨率模型的使用将使该项目能够量化和了解公海环流，它们如何随时间变化，以及它们如何影响沿海海平面变化。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This is a project jointly funded by the National Science Foundation’s Directorate for Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Agreement. This Agreement allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award recommendation, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget that supports scientists at institutions in their respective countries.Global mean sea level is rising due to the combined effects of melting land ice and ocean thermal expansion. Regionally however, sea level is also strongly influenced by changes in the strength and the pathways of large-scale ocean currents, and the long-term trend is often masked by large-amplitude changes over several years. Quantifying and predicting regional patterns are crucial for coastal communities where the magnitude and frequency of extreme sea level events are of immediate societal relevance. At the U.S. East Coast, sea level rise and variability patterns have been linked to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). On the NW European shelf, however, comparatively little is known about the impact of AMOC on sea level change, variability, and extremes. This project will combine direct observations and numerical modeling to better understand the drivers of coastal sea level change on a range of timescales. Such understanding is vital for protecting coastal populations, ecosystems, infrastructure, and maritime industries. The high level of interest in future sea level change, together with the strategic focus of ODISSEA on knowledge and data gaps ensures that the project will have significant impact in the sea level research community. New knowledge learned from this project will be disseminated to the relevant academic communities (via high-impact ocean and climate journals and at leading international conferences) and local Florida panhandle community in which sea level rise is a keen interest (through education programs and outreach activities at COAPS/FSU). The project will also support the training and career development for a post-doc at FSU to gain experience in the analysis of both observations and model outputs.This project includes efforts to 1) establish the causal links between deep ocean circulation and shelf sea level changes on monthly to decadal time scales; 2) provide estimates of coastal sea level change for the western UK and Ireland over the next 30 years, with an improved understanding of where and why these changes will occur; and 3) isolate the impact of observed and projected AMOC changes on regional sea level change, variability, and extremes. A key barrier to quantifying and predicting regional patterns of sea level change is understanding the ocean dynamics over the continental slope – the interface between the deep ocean and the shallow continental shelf. Currents directed from the deep ocean towards the slope may either continue onto the shelf or feed into the rapid along-slope boundary current which encircles the NW European shelf. Further, the large-scale ocean currents are predicted to change with the warming climate, with the AMOC being projected to weaken dramatically in the next 30 years. However, the climate models which yield these predictions lack the fine-scale resolution required to capture the effect of these changes on shelf sea level at a regional scale, in particular the role of narrow boundary currents in modulating the influence of the deep ocean circulation at the coast. The use of direct observations and high-resolution models will allow this project to quantify and understand the open ocean circulation, how they change over time, and how they impact the coastal sea level change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.