Workshop: Collaborative Strategies for Predicting and Measuring Uncertainty in Rare Occurrences in Civil and Environmental Systems; Golden, Colorado; 6-8 November 2024

该奖项将支持一个研讨会，为统计科学与土木和环境工程之间的合作建立一个平台，以解释数值模型和模拟建筑环境的风险和危害。最近发生的极端天气事件，如2020年加州大火、2021年太平洋西北地区热浪和2022年中西部洪水，突显了理解和减轻未来风险的关键必要性。工程师和统计学家之间的合作，专门从事极值分析领域，为找到解决这些风险的新方法提供了一个实用和集中的机会。统计学家有能力为这些极端事件建立预测模型，从而为减轻风险的决策提供有价值的见解。反过来，工程师可以使用这些预测模型来制定更具弹性的基础设施设计，并制定在这种情况下有效响应的策略。因此，本次研讨会的目标是促进知识和思想的双向交流，统计学家可以分享数据分析的新方法和量化不确定性的模型，土木和环境工程师可以讨论他们领域中的挑战性问题和他们的传统方法。通过这种方式，数据科学家将在他们的研究中受到工程中的实质性问题的激励。相反，土木和环境工程师可以根据统计科学的最新发展考虑解决问题的新方法。通过为不同领域之间的合作和知识共享创造机会，研讨会旨在培养新的想法和解决方案，以应对当今土木和环境工程行业面临的挑战。研讨会将汇集来自这些学科的顶尖专家，开展新的合作，描述数学和统计挑战，并推进高维时空复合极端事件的建模和推理方面的最新技术。国家科学基金会的支持将优先考虑代表性不足的群体的参与。研讨会将提供使用R软件的短期课程和实践教程，重点是建模分布的尾部（极端）概率的方法。统计学家、土木工程和环境科学专家将参与研究讲座、小组讨论和报告。研究生和博士后的海报会议将包括3分钟的快速演讲和传统的海报。总的来说，研讨会将促进在极值分析方面的合作、知识共享和技能发展。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award will support a workshop to establish a platform for collaboration between statistical science and civil and environmental engineering in interpreting numerical models and simulations for risks and hazards to the built environment. The recent incidences of extreme weather events, such as the 2020 fires in California, the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, and the 2022 Midwest flooding, underscore the critical necessity to comprehend and mitigate future risks. The collaboration between engineers and statisticians, specializing in the field of extreme value analysis, presents a practical and focused opportunity to find novel approaches to these risks. Statisticians possess the capacity to construct predictive models for these extreme events, thereby providing valuable insights for decisions regarding risk mitigation. Engineers, in turn, can use these predictive models to formulate designs for more resilient infrastructure and devise strategies for effective response in such situations. Therefore, the goal of this workshop is to facilitate a two-way exchange of knowledge and ideas, where statisticians can share emerging methods for data analysis and models for quantifying uncertainty, and civil and environmental engineers can discuss challenging problems in their fields and their traditional approaches. In this manner, data scientists will be motivated in their research by substantial problems in engineering. Conversely, civil and environmental engineers can consider new ways of addressing issues based on recent developments in statistical science. By creating opportunities for collaboration and knowledge sharing between different fields, the workshop will aim to foster new ideas and solutions that can address the challenges facing the civil and environmental engineering industry today. The workshop will bring together leading experts from these disciplines to develop new collaborations, delineate mathematical and statistical challenges, and advance the state-of-the-art in the modeling and inference for high-dimensional spatio-temporal, compound extreme events. NSF support will prioritize participation by underrepresented groups. The workshop will offer short courses and hands-on tutorials using R software, focusing on methods for modeling the tail (extreme) probabilities of a distribution. Research talks, panel discussions, and presentations will involve statisticians and experts in civil engineering and environmental science. A poster session for graduate students and post-docs will include 3-minute speed talks and traditional posters. Overall, the workshop will foster collaboration, knowledge sharing, and skill development in extreme value analysis.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.