NERC - NSFGEO: Pliocene Lessons for the Indian Ocean Dipole (PLIOD)

NERC - NSFGEO：印度洋偶极子的上新世教训 (PLIOD)

• 批准号: 2423147
• 负责人: Kaustubh Thirumalai
• 金额: $ 32.51万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-04-15 至 2027-03-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2423147&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NERC; NSFGEO; Pliocene; Lessons; Indian

This is a project jointly funded by the National Science Foundation’s Directorate for Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Agreement. This Agreement allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award recommendation, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget that supports scientists at institutions in their respective countries. Over two billion people who live along the Indian Ocean's rim are impacted by its climate. However, large uncertainty persists for how the region's climate will change in the future under sustained greenhouse forcing. This project will provide the first estimates of short-term temperature variability in the Indian Ocean during a past warm climate period. To do this, the researchers will analyze sediment in cores collected from the Indian Ocean. The analyses will help to determine changes in temperatures in the tropical–subtropical Indian Ocean during the Pliocene. These data will also be combined with climate model output to determine whether a warmer Indian Ocean had greater seasonal and year-to-year variability. Understanding the Indian Ocean during this past warm period may highlight the future climate risks for the region and beyond. In addition, this project will foster collaborations between US and UK researchers and support a postdoctoral scholar at the University of Arizona. The postdoctoral scholar will help lead the project and mentor students. The students will include a high school student and a student from a Tribal College in Arizona.Since 2000, surface waters in the Indian Ocean have warmed faster than in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. This has raised concerns about how the interannual Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode of variability and associated risks of extreme weather events will be affected by global warming. In this project, the researchers will investigate Indian Ocean climate variability and IOD-related dynamics during the mid-Pliocene period (~3 Ma), when global temperatures were approximately 2-3°C higher than preindustrial levels. Marine sedimentary archives will be analyzed to provide detailed information on subdecadal temperature variability across the tropical–subtropical Indian Ocean during this period. In concert with these paleodata, the team will also perform climate simulations at the UK Met Office (UKESM1-HADGEM3) to determine whether a warmer Indian Ocean experienced greater seasonal to interannual variability. This research will test whether patterns of climate variability during the warm mid-Pliocene interval align with a recently proposed hypothesis that the Indian Ocean can harbor an "El Niño-like" equatorial mode of enhanced interannual variability, distinct from the IOD, under altered climatic states. The emergence of such a mode in a warmer-than-present interval of Earth’s history holds significant implications for future climate risk precipitated by Indian Ocean dynamics. In addition, this project will foster collaborations between the US and UK across early- and mid-career researchers. This project will support a postdoctoral scholar at the University of Arizona who will lead the proposed research and will also help mentor a high school student and an REU student from a Community/Tribal College in ArizonaThis award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这是一个由国家科学基金会地球科学局(NSF/GEO)和英国国家环境研究委员会(NERC)通过NSF/GEO-NERC牵头机构协议共同资助的项目。该协定允许美国和英国提交一个单一的联合提案，并由该机构进行同行审查，该机构的调查员在预算中所占比例最大。在成功地共同确定一项奖项建议后，每个机构将资助其各自国家机构中支持科学家的预算比例。居住在印度洋沿岸的20多亿人受到其气候的影响。然而，在持续的温室压力下，该地区未来的气候将如何变化，仍然存在很大的不确定性。该项目将首次对过去温暖气候期间印度洋的短期温度变化进行估计。为了做到这一点，研究人员将分析从印度洋采集的岩心中的沉积物。这些分析将有助于确定热带-亚热带印度洋在上新世期间的温度变化。这些数据还将与气候模型输出相结合，以确定印度洋变暖是否具有更大的季节性和年际变化。在过去这段温暖的时期了解印度洋，可能会突显该地区乃至更远地区未来的气候风险。此外，该项目将促进美国和英国研究人员之间的合作，并支持亚利桑那大学的一名博士后学者。博士后学者将帮助领导该项目并指导学生。这些学生将包括一名高中生和一名来自亚利桑那州部落学院的学生。自2000年以来，印度洋的表层海水变暖速度快于大西洋和太平洋盆地。这引发了人们的担忧，即全球变暖将如何影响印度洋偶极子(IOD)年际变化模式和极端天气事件的相关风险。在这个项目中，研究人员将调查上新世中期(~3 Ma)印度洋的气候变异性和与IOD相关的动力学，当时全球气温比工业化前水平高出约2-3℃。将对海洋沉积档案进行分析，以提供关于热带-亚热带印度洋在这一时期的亚十年温度变化的详细信息。为了配合这些古数据，研究小组还将在英国气象局(UKESM1-HadGEM3)进行气候模拟，以确定变暖的印度洋是否经历了更大的季节性和年际变化。这项研究将测试上新世中期温暖间期的气候变率模式是否符合最近提出的假设，即在气候状态变化的情况下，印度洋可能存在与IOD不同的年际变率增强的“类似厄尔尼诺”的赤道模式。在地球历史上一个比现在更温暖的时期出现这种模式，对印度洋动态导致的未来气候风险具有重大影响。此外，该项目将促进美国和英国在职业生涯早期和中期的研究人员之间的合作。该项目将支持亚利桑那大学的一名博士后学者，他将领导拟议的研究，还将帮助指导亚利桑那州社区/部落学院的一名高中生和一名REU学生。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。