Collaborative Research: P2C2--Variability, Impacts and Extremes of the ENSO-Asian Monsoon Relationship over the Common Era

研究小组的目标是研究厄尔尼诺Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)-季风关系在过去2000年的演变，诊断各种外部强迫（如太阳辐照和温室气体）以及来自太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）和大西洋多年代际涛动（AMO）的内部气候反馈如何调节ENSO-季风关系。研究最近记录enso -季风关系在仪器期间变化的文献是否在过去成立，并生成亚洲夏季风（ASM）的统计预测模型。ASM和ENSO都是气候系统的基本组成部分。研究它们之间关系的变化将加深我们对遥相关、海气相互作用和气候反馈的理解。古气候数据将作为验证当前ASM理论的试验台，从而完善动力学理解。地中海每年为近40亿人提供淡水资源。与ASM相关的极端事件导致和/或加剧了洪水和干旱，对发展中国家产生深远的社会和经济影响。然而，在ASM的模式预估中仍然存在较大的模式不确定性。El Niño-Southern涛动（ENSO）是ASM的重要预测因子，但ENSO与季风的关系并不稳定，呈现出明显的年代际变化。enso -季风关系的变化可能受到外部强迫（如温室气体和太阳辐照）的调节，但也受到内部气候变率模式（如PDO和AMO）的严重调节。古气候记录可以扩大仪器时代提供的时间覆盖范围，并有助于解决这种不确定性。潜在的更广泛影响（bi）包括整合气候动力学和建模，以完善ASM及其水文气候极端事件的预测，这将影响亚洲发展中国家近40亿人的经济繁荣。该项目将通过支持两名助理教授、一名博士后研究员、两名博士研究生、几名本科生（包括历史上代表性不足的群体）的研究机会，以及与K-12学生和美国女童子军的联系，扩大气候建模和气候风险研究的多元化参与。该项目的结果将分发给地方、州和联邦各级相关管理机构的利益相关者。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The research team aims to investigate the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relationship over the last 2,000 years, diagnose how various external forcings (e.g., solar irradiance and greenhouse gases) and internal climate feedbacks from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate the ENSO-monsoon relationship, examine whether the recent literature documenting ENSO-monsoon relationship changes over the instrumental period hold in the past, and generate a statistical forecast model of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). Both the ASM and ENSO are fundamental components of the climate system. Investigating the variation of their relationship will deepen our understanding of teleconnections, air-sea interactions, and climate feedbacks. The paleoclimate data will serve as a testbed for the verification of current theories of the ASM thereby refining dynamical understanding.The ASM supplies freshwater resources for nearly four billion people annually. Extreme events associated with the ASM cause and/or exacerbate floods and droughts, which have far-reaching social and economic impacts in developing countries. Large model uncertainties, however, still exist in the model projections of the ASM. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important predictor of the ASM, yet the ENSO-monsoon relationship is not stable and exhibits substantial decadal variability. The variation of the ENSO-monsoon relationship is likely modulated by external forcing such as greenhouse gases (GHGs) and solar irradiance but also heavily modulated by internal modes of climate variability such as the PDO and the AMO. Paleoclimate records can extend the temporal coverage afforded by the instrumental era and help address such uncertainty.The potential Broader Impacts (B.I.) include integrating climate dynamics and modeling to refine projections of the ASM and its hydroclimate extremes, which impact the economic prosperity of nearly 4 billion people in Asian developing countries. The project will broaden diverse participation in climate modeling and climate risk research by supporting research opportunities for two assistant professors, a postdoctoral researcher, two doctoral graduate students, several undergraduate students including those from historically underrepresented groups, and outreach with K-12 students and the Girl Scouts of America. Results from this project will be disseminated to relevant management agency stakeholders at the local, state, and federal levels.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.