Collaborative Research: P2C2--Variability, Impacts and Extremes of the ENSO-Asian Monsoon Relationship over the Common Era

该研究小组的目标是调查厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）-季风关系在过去2,000年的演变，诊断各种外部强迫（例如，（太阳辐射和温室气体）和来自太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）和大西洋年代际振荡（AMO）的内部气候反馈对ENSO-季风关系的调制，检验最近文献中记录ENSO-季风关系随仪器周期变化的文献是否在过去成立，并生成亚洲夏季风（ASM）的统计预报模式。ASM和ENSO都是气候系统的基本组成部分。 研究它们关系的变化将加深我们对遥相关、海气相互作用和气候反馈的理解。古气候数据将作为验证ASM当前理论的试验平台，从而完善动态理解。ASM每年为近40亿人提供淡水资源。与小型和小型金矿有关的极端事件造成和/或加剧了洪水和干旱，对发展中国家产生了深远的社会和经济影响。 然而，在ASM的模型预测中仍然存在较大的模型不确定性。 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是夏季风的一个重要预报因子，但ENSO与季风的关系并不稳定，且具有显著的年代际变化。 ENSO-季风关系的变化很可能受到温室气体（GHG）和太阳辐照度等外部强迫的调制，但也受到PDO和AMO等气候变率内部模式的调制。古气候记录可以扩展仪器时代提供的时间覆盖范围，并有助于解决这种不确定性。包括整合气候动力学和建模，以完善对ASM及其水文气候极端情况的预测，这些极端情况影响到亚洲发展中国家近40亿人的经济繁荣。该项目将通过支持两名助理教授，一名博士后研究员，两名博士研究生，几名本科生（包括历史上代表性不足的群体）的研究机会，以及与K-12学生和美国女童子军的外联活动，扩大气候建模和气候风险研究的多元化参与。 该项目的成果将分发给地方、州和联邦各级的相关管理机构利益相关者。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The research team aims to investigate the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relationship over the last 2,000 years, diagnose how various external forcings (e.g., solar irradiance and greenhouse gases) and internal climate feedbacks from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate the ENSO-monsoon relationship, examine whether the recent literature documenting ENSO-monsoon relationship changes over the instrumental period hold in the past, and generate a statistical forecast model of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). Both the ASM and ENSO are fundamental components of the climate system. Investigating the variation of their relationship will deepen our understanding of teleconnections, air-sea interactions, and climate feedbacks. The paleoclimate data will serve as a testbed for the verification of current theories of the ASM thereby refining dynamical understanding.The ASM supplies freshwater resources for nearly four billion people annually. Extreme events associated with the ASM cause and/or exacerbate floods and droughts, which have far-reaching social and economic impacts in developing countries. Large model uncertainties, however, still exist in the model projections of the ASM. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important predictor of the ASM, yet the ENSO-monsoon relationship is not stable and exhibits substantial decadal variability. The variation of the ENSO-monsoon relationship is likely modulated by external forcing such as greenhouse gases (GHGs) and solar irradiance but also heavily modulated by internal modes of climate variability such as the PDO and the AMO. Paleoclimate records can extend the temporal coverage afforded by the instrumental era and help address such uncertainty.The potential Broader Impacts (B.I.) include integrating climate dynamics and modeling to refine projections of the ASM and its hydroclimate extremes, which impact the economic prosperity of nearly 4 billion people in Asian developing countries. The project will broaden diverse participation in climate modeling and climate risk research by supporting research opportunities for two assistant professors, a postdoctoral researcher, two doctoral graduate students, several undergraduate students including those from historically underrepresented groups, and outreach with K-12 students and the Girl Scouts of America. Results from this project will be disseminated to relevant management agency stakeholders at the local, state, and federal levels.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.