Understanding cycles in mineral commodity price, a market model with uncertainty

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Mining accounts for more than 8% of Australia's GDP, and almost 50% of Australia's total merchandise exports. Understanding phenomenological mechanisms for price fluctuations and using our dynamic price model can help determine better timing of investments in mining infrastructure. This knowledge will help Australia benefit from the upside of commodity 'cycles', super or not. The market model that will be developed in this project can be used to assist in better planning for commodity cycle upside, improving the overall efficiency of capital utilisation in the long term.