New Institutionalism and Bayesian Networks: Establishing an analytical framework to model migration decision making in rural Kazakhstan

到目前为止，还没有全面的移徙理论可用于分析移徙过程的复杂性。因此，中观理论应该将各种社会科学的见解整合到一个统一的分析框架中。这一框架需要超越个人，考虑到移徙的政治经济学，以分析性地将微观层面的因素与各级的政治、经济和社会因素联系起来。我们建议将新制度主义理论作为研究移民决策的一种中层理论。新制度主义连接了不同层次的分析，该理论建立在政治学、社会学和经济学的交汇点上。它结合了结构-代理维度，同时描述了结构中的个体行为。因此，可以在一个统一的分析框架内审查影响移徙决定的各种因素的复杂网络。在方法上，这需要一种分析工具来同时对不同水平的因素进行建模。因此，贝叶斯网络被用作一种创新工具，以捕捉移徙决策的系统性复杂性。通过这样做，揭示了移徙决策过程中存在的交叉联系的深度和广度。此外，它可能会为移民过程如何受到影响提供新的见解。就地区而言，该提案的重点是哈萨克斯坦。哈萨克斯坦是中亚的经济发动机，表现出引人入胜的移民模式(即移民、移民、回流移民和国内移民)，这在一定程度上是出于政治动机。最后，这一建议以国内移徙流动为中心，在过去三十年里，国际移徙研究忽视了国内移徙流动，这在哈萨克斯坦也是一个研究不足的领域。通过在移徙动态区域应用新的分析框架和方法，我们正在理论、方法和经验层面推进基本移徙研究。

As yet there is no comprehensive migration theory available for the analysis of the complexity of migratory processes. Thus, middle-range theories ought to integrate insights from various social sciences into a unifying analytical framework. This framework needs to go beyond the individual and take into account the political economy of migration in order to analytically connect micro level factors, with political, economic and social factors at various levels. We suggest the theory of New Institutionalism as a middle-range theory for the investigation of migration decision making. New Institutionalism connects different levels of analysis, and the theory is based at the junction of political science, sociology and economics. It incorporates the structure-agency dimension while describing individual behavior in structures. Thus, the complex web of factors influencing migration decisions can be examined within a single coherent analytical framework. Methodologically, this calls for an analytical instrument to model factors at different levels simultaneously. Thus, Bayesian Networks is used as an innovative instrument to capture the systemic complexity of migration decision making. In doing so, the depth and breadth of cross-linkages existing within the migration decision making process are revealed. Moreover, it potentially gives new insights into how migration processes can be influenced. Regionally, the proposal focuses on Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is the economic motor in central Asia and displays fascinating migration patterns (i.e. immigration, emigration, return-migration and internal migration), which have been partly politically motivated. Finally, this proposal centers on internal migration movements, which have been neglected in favor of international migration research during the last three decades and which are also an under-researched area in Kazakhstan. By applying a new analytical framework and methodology in a migratory-dynamic region we are advancing basic migration research at a theoretical, methodological and empirical level.