The role of the status quo bias in the perpetuation of farm work and remaining in situ – exemplified with data from Southeast Europe

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Agricultural sector transformation and the decreasing number of individuals employed in agriculture are often accompanied by rural out-migration. These phenomena are salient in post-communist countries, where the rural population is over-aged and ‘ghost’ villages have become a well-known concomitant. They are also central to many scientific works. The majority of farmers, nevertheless, tend to remain immobile. In this proposed research, we deliberately avert our focus away from what could be called a ‘mobility bias’ and instead turn towards the phenomenon of immobility. The reasons that tie farmers to their economic sector and rural origin in spite of economic and non-economic incentives to leave the farming sector and migrate have been largely ignored in the literature. We will therefore focus on the factors that work toward the decision to continue farming and to remain in situ (and their interlinkages). Theoretically, our work is inspired by what is known as the status quo bias, described as an (exaggerated) preference for the current state. Integrating the status quo bias into more standard utility-based economic decision models adds scientific value by offering insights into the puzzle of immobility choices in a world where structural change and migration incentives should trigger the opposite. A descriptive status quo model—based on the subjective expected utility (SEU) theory—will guide the empirical analysis of farmers’ choices to continue farming and remain in situ. The operationalisation of the status quo bias on an individual basis is an essential step for that. We propose to measure the status quo bias by employing innovative choice experiments. For a deeper understanding of the cognitive elements that guide the decisions of farm household members, we will then integrate insights from the theory of planned behaviour (TPB). TPB has proved useful in explaining reasons for not performing a behaviour (in our case not leaving the farming sector and migrating) and will be implemented with state-of-the-art partial least squares structural equation models. We propose Albania and Kosovo as case countries for the empirical research. Both countries have rural sectors that are characterised by small-scale family farms. They also have dynamic migration patterns to the extent that migration has become a common livelihood option for the economically active rural population. As a result, the alleged default option of continuing farming and remaining in situ has to be actively chosen. Our research project will pave way for new insights in basic research, on the one hand, and contribute to solving an empirical puzzle within agricultural economics, on the other hand. In a wider sense, the research project will furthermore contribute to a more detailed understanding of resulting processes such as the rural exodus, slow structural change in agriculture and regional development, and the related social cohesion dilemma.