The role of the status quo bias in the perpetuation of farm work and remaining in situ – exemplified with data from Southeast Europe

农业部门的转型和农业就业人数的减少往往伴随着农村人口向外迁移。这些现象在后共产主义国家尤为突出，在这些国家，农村人口超龄，“鬼村”已成为众所周知的伴生物。它们也是许多科学工作的核心。然而，大多数农民倾向于保持不动。在这项拟议的研究中，我们故意将我们的注意力从所谓的“流动性偏见”转移到不动现象上。尽管有经济和非经济激励措施促使农民离开农业部门并迁移，但将农民与其经济部门和农村出身联系起来的原因在文献中基本上被忽视了。因此，我们将把重点放在决定继续耕作和保持原地（以及它们之间的相互联系）的因素上。从理论上讲，我们的工作受到所谓的现状偏见的启发，这种偏见被描述为对当前状态的（夸大的）偏好。将现状偏见整合到更标准的基于效用的经济决策模型中，可以增加科学价值，因为在一个结构变化和移民激励应该引发相反结果的世界里，它提供了对不流动选择难题的见解。基于主观期望效用（SEU）理论的描述性现状模型将指导农民选择继续耕作和留在原地的实证分析。在个人基础上实施维持现状的偏见是实现这一目标的必要步骤。我们建议采用创新的选择实验来衡量现状偏差。为了更深入地了解指导农户成员决策的认知因素，我们将整合计划行为理论（TPB）的见解。事实证明，TPB在解释不执行行为的原因（在我们的案例中，没有离开农业部门和迁移）方面很有用，并将使用最先进的偏最小二乘结构方程模型来实施。我们建议阿尔巴尼亚和科索沃作为案例国进行实证研究。两国都有以小规模家庭农场为特征的农村部门。它们也有动态的移徙模式，以至于移徙已成为从事经济活动的农村人口的一种共同生计选择。因此，必须积极选择所谓的继续耕作和留在原地的默认选择。我们的研究项目一方面将为基础研究的新见解铺平道路，另一方面有助于解决农业经济学中的实证难题。从更广泛的意义上讲，该研究项目将进一步有助于更详细地了解由此产生的过程，如农村人口外流、农业和区域发展的缓慢结构变化以及相关的社会凝聚力困境。

Agricultural sector transformation and the decreasing number of individuals employed in agriculture are often accompanied by rural out-migration. These phenomena are salient in post-communist countries, where the rural population is over-aged and ‘ghost’ villages have become a well-known concomitant. They are also central to many scientific works. The majority of farmers, nevertheless, tend to remain immobile. In this proposed research, we deliberately avert our focus away from what could be called a ‘mobility bias’ and instead turn towards the phenomenon of immobility. The reasons that tie farmers to their economic sector and rural origin in spite of economic and non-economic incentives to leave the farming sector and migrate have been largely ignored in the literature. We will therefore focus on the factors that work toward the decision to continue farming and to remain in situ (and their interlinkages). Theoretically, our work is inspired by what is known as the status quo bias, described as an (exaggerated) preference for the current state. Integrating the status quo bias into more standard utility-based economic decision models adds scientific value by offering insights into the puzzle of immobility choices in a world where structural change and migration incentives should trigger the opposite. A descriptive status quo model—based on the subjective expected utility (SEU) theory—will guide the empirical analysis of farmers’ choices to continue farming and remain in situ. The operationalisation of the status quo bias on an individual basis is an essential step for that. We propose to measure the status quo bias by employing innovative choice experiments. For a deeper understanding of the cognitive elements that guide the decisions of farm household members, we will then integrate insights from the theory of planned behaviour (TPB). TPB has proved useful in explaining reasons for not performing a behaviour (in our case not leaving the farming sector and migrating) and will be implemented with state-of-the-art partial least squares structural equation models. We propose Albania and Kosovo as case countries for the empirical research. Both countries have rural sectors that are characterised by small-scale family farms. They also have dynamic migration patterns to the extent that migration has become a common livelihood option for the economically active rural population. As a result, the alleged default option of continuing farming and remaining in situ has to be actively chosen. Our research project will pave way for new insights in basic research, on the one hand, and contribute to solving an empirical puzzle within agricultural economics, on the other hand. In a wider sense, the research project will furthermore contribute to a more detailed understanding of resulting processes such as the rural exodus, slow structural change in agriculture and regional development, and the related social cohesion dilemma.