Devaluation of Experience? Expectation Formation in Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in the Period of Economic Structural Change since the 1970s

该项目探讨了自20世纪70年代以来经济结构变革时期，历史经验对中小企业预期形成的价值：结构变革及其对决策需求的不断增长是否导致了这些以所有者或家族经营为主的企业基于经验的知识对预期形成的贬值？我们有一个双重的工作假设：首先，我们假设，在20世纪60年代中期，中小企业所有者和高管的经验知识一直存在并直观地使用，受到战后头二十年创业成功的显著影响。其次，我们同时假设，在管理专业化的过程中，这种经验知识被Niklas Luhmann所说的更理性的、非个人的、组织的期望形成的某些功能等同物所取代。如果一个人遵循这一假设，就可以假设，有意识地放弃基于个人经验的相当直观的适应性期望形成，有利于在公司治理的所有相关领域中增加使用系统的先进分析和预测技术以及咨询程序。然而，这一假设同时也需要受到质疑：也许甚至相反的发展发生了，因为专业化进程，在面对反复的公司危机时，很快达到了它自己的极限？中小企业的所有者和董事总经理在应对结构变化方面面临越来越多的困难，他们是否更多地依赖经验知识，但可以追溯到更早的时候，或者延伸到其他领域？该项目将从三个方面考察这些问题：第一，业主关系的安排和管理和控制结构；第二，战略选择和由此衍生的组织结构；三是规划实施投融资。因此，该项目被置于pp1859的企业、创新和技术变革的核心研究领域。我们计划采用跨学科的方法，将真正的有限理性（Gerd Gigerenzer/Reinhard Selten）、动物精神（George Akerlof/Robert Shiller）和虚构的期望（Jens Beckert）结合起来。在第一步中，我们将创建一个动态启发式模型，用于自20世纪70年代以来中小企业基于经验的期望形成。在第二步中，该模型将用于案例研究（菲律宾/萨尔波尔）的实证分析。这将允许进行严格的检查，并在必要时对模型本身进行后续调整。如果该模型被证明是有用和多产的，我们正在考虑在后续项目中使用它，对来自不同国家的更大样本的中小企业进行系统的比较分析。

The project inquires about the value of historical experience for the expectation formation in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the period of economic structural change since the 1970s: Has the structural change along with its growing demands for decision-making led to a devaluation of experience-based knowledge for the expectation formation of these mostly owner- or family-operated businesses? We have a twofold working hypothesis: First, we assume that the ever-present and intuitively employed empirical knowledge of the owners and executives of SMEs in the mid-1960s was significantly impacted by the entrepreneurial successes of the first two post-war decades. Second, we simultaneously assume that during a process of professionalization of management this empirical knowledge was replaced by certain functional equivalents of a more rational oriented, non-personal, organizational expectation formation according to Niklas Luhmann. If one follows this hypothesis, it can be assumed that a conscious waiver of the rather intuitive-adaptive expectation formation drawing upon individual experiences took place in favor of an increased use of methodical advanced techniques of analysis and prognosis along with consulting procedures in all relevant areas of corporate governance. However, this assumption needs to be questioned at the same time: Perhaps even contrary developments took place because the professionalization process, in the face of repeated corporate crises reached quickly its own limits? Did the owners and managing directors of SMEs, being confronted with increasing difficulties in coping with the structural changes, rely perhaps even more on empirical knowledge, but dating farther back or extending into other areas? The project will tackle these questions in three fields of examination: First, the arrangement of owner relationships and the structures of management and control; second, the choice of strategies and organizational structures derived from them; third, the planning and implementation of investments and financing them. Therefore, the project is placed within the core research area of enterprises, innovation and technological changes of the PP 1859. We plan to work with an interdisciplinary methodical approach that combines the ideas of truly bounded rationality (Gerd Gigerenzer/Reinhard Selten), animal spirits (George Akerlof/Robert Shiller), and fictional expectations (Jens Beckert). In a first step we will create a dynamic heuristic model for experience-based expectation formation in SMEs since the 1970s. In a second step, this model will be used for the empirical analysis of a case study (Philippine/Saarpor). That will allow a critical examination, and, if necessary, subsequent adjustment of the model itself. If the model proves to be useful and prolific, we are considering using it in a follow-up project for the systematic-comparative analysis of a bigger sample of SMEs from different countries.