Expectation and Experience. A History of Economic Future (Synthesis Project)

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The aim of this endeavor is to integrate the findings of the Priority Program 1859 and to publish two research papers and one comprehensive monograph. We plan to disseminate our insights not only within the scientific community, but also to make them accessible to other disciplines and to a broader public. We are pursuing two goals with this project: On the one hand, we want to write a history of modern economic expectations, with a special emphasis on the new empirical insights of the Priority Program. On the other hand, we want to develop an innovative historical theory of expectation formation that will also be relevant for research in economics. These are our three central questions: 1. How have the determinants of expectation formation changed over time, and what do these alterations imply for the theory of expectation? 2. How do economic expectations and historical experiences relate to each other? 3. How do expectations change during crises and under the influence of exogenous shocks? To answer these questions the applicants will revert to their own research, integrate the results from the other projects of the Priority Program, and collect additional quantitative and qualitative information.