Past Energy Futures. Energy Projections and Decision-Making in the Electricity Sector since 1945

对技术变革的假设是产生经济预期的核心。因此，技术选择的案例研究对于探索决策机制的变化是有价值的。在能源供应领域尤其如此。为了掌握对未来发展的不安全感，能源预测对政治和经济规划很重要。由于电力是能源问题的核心，规划对于维持一个由发电厂、配电网络和消费者基础设施组成的相互依存的系统至关重要。用科学的理论依据考察过去来预测未来，包含了适应性和理性预期的要素。在这里，该项目侧重于期望形成机制如何在整个20世纪下半叶塑造（和扭曲）能源部门的规划和决策。过去的能源期货不仅是讨价还价和谈判的结果，而且也受到不同的适应和解释。系统的理解将有助于重新评估决策过程，并明确当代能源历史中普遍的相互依存关系。历史预测、科学和公共辩论、口述历史访谈和档案资料可以为研究提供背景。从历史的角度来看，要确定的主要问题是预测及其使用是如何随着时间的推移而变化的，以及这是否表明经济行为的反射性日益增强。从经济学的角度来看，历史案例研究既是理论考虑的测试领域，也是确定其他相关因素的来源。同时，对过去预测方法的历史分析对于反映最先进的预测和能源研究是必不可少的。预测的多重作用表明，期望取决于特定的社会文化背景。该项目将反映这一点，以三种方式进行预测：从科学和技术研究的角度，从商业和管理的角度，以及从建立模型的理论角度。在第一个子项目中，能源预测的历史将作为一个由各种社会行动者推动的科学化过程进行讨论。然后，第二个子项目将着眼于能源生产公司产生预期的实际做法，以确定能源预测作为决策工具的作用。来自不同欧洲市场的案例研究将强调物质基础、制度设置和文化偏好之间的相互关系。最后，过去预测的盲点和故障将在第三个子项目中详细阐述。通过讨论将历史信息整合到建模过程中的可能性，本研究不仅有助于更系统地接近期望的作用，而且还将探索在未来使用这些知识的方法。

Assumptions on technological change are central to generating economic expectations. As a result, case studies on technology choices are valuable for exploring the changing mechanisms of decision-making. This is especially the case in the energy supply field. In order to master insecurity about future developments, energy projections are important for political and economic planning. With electricity at the core of the energy issue, planning is essential for maintaining an interdependent system of power plants, distribution networks, and consumer infrastructure. Forecasting the future by examining the past with a scientific rationale incorporates elements of adaptive and rational expectations. Here, the project focuses on how mechanisms of expectation formation have shaped (and distorted) planning and decision-making in the energy sector throughout the second half of the 20th century. Past energy futures are not only the result of bargaining and negotiations, but are also subject to different adaptations and interpretations. A systematic understanding will help to re-evaluate decision-making processes and specify general interde-pendencies in contemporary energy history. Historical projections, scientific and public debates, oral history interviews, and archival sources can provide the background for research. From a historical perspective, the main issue to determine is how forecasts and their usage have changed over time and if this indicates a growing reflexivity of economic actions. From an economic perspective, historical case studies function as test areas for theoretical considerations as well as sources that determine additional relevant factors. At the same time, a historical analysis of past projection methods is essential to reflect on state-of-the-art forecasting and energy research. The multiple roles of forecasts indicate that expectations depend on specific sociocultural contexts. The project will mirror this by addressing projections in three ways: from the perspective of science and technology studies, from a business and management point of view, and from the theoretical standpoint of model-building. In a first subproject, the history of energy forecasts will be discussed as a process of scientification promoted by various social actors. Then, a second subproject will look at actual practices of generating expectations at energy producing companies to determine the role of energy forecasts as a tool for decision-making. Case studies from different European markets will highlight the interrelationship between material base, institutional settings, and cultural preference. Finally, blind spots and malfunctions of past projections will be elaborated upon in a third subproject. By discussing possibilities of integrating historical information into the process of modeling, this study will not only help to approach the role of expectations more systematically, but it will also explore ways to use this knowledge in the future.