Past Energy Futures. Energy Projections and Decision-Making in the Electricity Sector since 1945

对技术变革的假设是产生经济预期的核心。因此，关于技术选择的案例研究对于探索决策的变化机制是有价值的。在能源供应领域尤其如此。为了掌握对未来发展的不安全感，能源预测对于政治和经济规划非常重要。由于电力是能源问题的核心，规划对于维持一个由发电厂、配电网络和消费者基础设施组成的相互依存的系统至关重要。通过用科学的理由审视过去来预测未来，融合了适应性和理性预期的元素。在这里，该项目侧重于预期形成机制如何在整个20世纪下半叶塑造(并扭曲)能源部门的规划和决策。过去的能源期货不仅是讨价还价和谈判的结果，而且也受到不同的适应和解读。系统的理解将有助于重新评估决策过程，并明确当代能源史上的一般相互关系。历史预测、科学和公共辩论、口述历史访谈和档案资料可以为研究提供背景资料。从历史的角度来看，要确定的主要问题是，预测及其使用随着时间的推移发生了怎样的变化，以及这是否表明经济行动的反射性越来越强。从经济学的角度来看，历史案例研究既是理论考量的试验区，也是决定其他相关因素的来源。同时，对过去预测方法的历史分析对于反思最先进的预测和能源研究是必不可少的。预测的多重作用表明，预期取决于特定的社会文化背景。该项目将从三个方面反映这一点：从科学和技术研究的角度、从商业和管理的角度以及从建立模型的理论角度进行预测。在第一个分项目中，能源预测的历史将作为一个由各种社会行为者推动的科学化过程来讨论。然后，第二个子项目将研究能源生产公司产生预期的实际做法，以确定能源预测作为决策工具的作用。来自不同欧洲市场的案例研究将突出物质基础、制度设置和文化偏好之间的相互关系。最后，将在第三个分项目中详细说明过去预测的盲点和故障。通过讨论将历史信息整合到建模过程中的可能性，本研究不仅有助于更系统地探讨期望的作用，而且还将探索在未来使用这一知识的方法。

Assumptions on technological change are central to generating economic expectations. As a result, case studies on technology choices are valuable for exploring the changing mechanisms of decision-making. This is especially the case in the energy supply field. In order to master insecurity about future developments, energy projections are important for political and economic planning. With electricity at the core of the energy issue, planning is essential for maintaining an interdependent system of power plants, distribution networks, and consumer infrastructure. Forecasting the future by examining the past with a scientific rationale incorporates elements of adaptive and rational expectations. Here, the project focuses on how mechanisms of expectation formation have shaped (and distorted) planning and decision-making in the energy sector throughout the second half of the 20th century. Past energy futures are not only the result of bargaining and negotiations, but are also subject to different adaptations and interpretations. A systematic understanding will help to re-evaluate decision-making processes and specify general interde-pendencies in contemporary energy history. Historical projections, scientific and public debates, oral history interviews, and archival sources can provide the background for research. From a historical perspective, the main issue to determine is how forecasts and their usage have changed over time and if this indicates a growing reflexivity of economic actions. From an economic perspective, historical case studies function as test areas for theoretical considerations as well as sources that determine additional relevant factors. At the same time, a historical analysis of past projection methods is essential to reflect on state-of-the-art forecasting and energy research. The multiple roles of forecasts indicate that expectations depend on specific sociocultural contexts. The project will mirror this by addressing projections in three ways: from the perspective of science and technology studies, from a business and management point of view, and from the theoretical standpoint of model-building. In a first subproject, the history of energy forecasts will be discussed as a process of scientification promoted by various social actors. Then, a second subproject will look at actual practices of generating expectations at energy producing companies to determine the role of energy forecasts as a tool for decision-making. Case studies from different European markets will highlight the interrelationship between material base, institutional settings, and cultural preference. Finally, blind spots and malfunctions of past projections will be elaborated upon in a third subproject. By discussing possibilities of integrating historical information into the process of modeling, this study will not only help to approach the role of expectations more systematically, but it will also explore ways to use this knowledge in the future.