Past Energy Futures. Energy Projections and Decision-Making in the Electricity Sector since 1945

过去的能源期货。

• 批准号: 275341583
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Paul Thomes
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehr- und Forschungsgebiet Wirtschafts-, Sozial- und Technologiegeschichte (aufgelöst)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2014-12-31 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/275341583?language=en
• 关键词: Past; Energy; Futures.; Projections; Decision

Assumptions on technological change are central to generating economic expectations. As a result, case studies on technology choices are valuable for exploring the changing mechanisms of decision-making. This is especially the case in the energy supply field. In order to master insecurity about future developments, energy projections are important for political and economic planning. With electricity at the core of the energy issue, planning is essential for maintaining an interdependent system of power plants, distribution networks, and consumer infrastructure. Forecasting the future by examining the past with a scientific rationale incorporates elements of adaptive and rational expectations. Here, the project focuses on how mechanisms of expectation formation have shaped (and distorted) planning and decision-making in the energy sector throughout the second half of the 20th century. Past energy futures are not only the result of bargaining and negotiations, but are also subject to different adaptations and interpretations. A systematic understanding will help to re-evaluate decision-making processes and specify general interde-pendencies in contemporary energy history. Historical projections, scientific and public debates, oral history interviews, and archival sources can provide the background for research. From a historical perspective, the main issue to determine is how forecasts and their usage have changed over time and if this indicates a growing reflexivity of economic actions. From an economic perspective, historical case studies function as test areas for theoretical considerations as well as sources that determine additional relevant factors. At the same time, a historical analysis of past projection methods is essential to reflect on state-of-the-art forecasting and energy research. The multiple roles of forecasts indicate that expectations depend on specific sociocultural contexts. The project will mirror this by addressing projections in three ways: from the perspective of science and technology studies, from a business and management point of view, and from the theoretical standpoint of model-building. In a first subproject, the history of energy forecasts will be discussed as a process of scientification promoted by various social actors. Then, a second subproject will look at actual practices of generating expectations at energy producing companies to determine the role of energy forecasts as a tool for decision-making. Case studies from different European markets will highlight the interrelationship between material base, institutional settings, and cultural preference. Finally, blind spots and malfunctions of past projections will be elaborated upon in a third subproject. By discussing possibilities of integrating historical information into the process of modeling, this study will not only help to approach the role of expectations more systematically, but it will also explore ways to use this knowledge in the future.

对技术变革的假设是产生经济预期的核心。因此，技术选择的案例研究对于探索决策的变化机制是有价值的。在能源供应领域尤其如此。为了控制对未来发展的不安全感，能源预测对政治和经济规划很重要。由于电力是能源问题的核心，规划对于维持发电厂、配电网络和消费者基础设施的相互依赖系统至关重要。通过以科学的理由审视过去来预测未来，其中包含了适应性和理性预期的要素。在这里，该项目的重点是如何形成机制的预期塑造（和扭曲）的规划和决策，在整个世纪后半叶的能源部门。过去的能源未来不仅是讨价还价和谈判的结果，而且还受到不同的适应和解释。一个系统的理解将有助于重新评估决策过程，并指定在当代能源历史的一般相互依存关系。历史预测、科学和公众辩论、口述历史访谈和档案资料可以为研究提供背景。从历史的角度来看，要确定的主要问题是预测及其使用如何随着时间的推移而变化，以及这是否表明经济行动的反身性越来越强。从经济学的角度来看，历史案例研究是理论思考的测试领域，也是确定其他相关因素的来源。与此同时，对过去的预测方法进行历史分析对于反思最新的预测和能源研究至关重要。预测的多重作用表明，预期取决于具体的社会文化背景。该项目将反映这一点，从三个方面进行预测：从科学和技术研究的角度，从商业和管理的角度，以及从建模的理论角度。在第一个子项目中，能源预测的历史将作为各种社会行为者推动的科学化过程进行讨论。然后，第二个子项目将研究能源生产公司产生期望的实际做法，以确定能源预测作为决策工具的作用。来自不同欧洲市场的案例研究将突出物质基础，制度环境和文化偏好之间的相互关系。最后，将在第三个分项目中详细说明过去预测的盲点和故障。通过讨论将历史信息整合到建模过程中的可能性，本研究不仅有助于更系统地探讨期望的作用，而且还将探索未来使用这些知识的方法。