Limited by Myopia? Economic Uncertainty and the International Regulation of Sovereign Debt in Times of Crisis (1970-1997)

受近视限制？

• 批准号: 275367566
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Julia Laura Rischbieter
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Juniorprofessur für Globale Wirtschaftsgeschichte
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2014-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/275367566?language=en
• 关键词: Limited; Myopia; Economic; Uncertainty; International

The September 2008 decision to let Lehman Brothers fail, for example, is now widely seen as the start of an international crisis of trust in the financial industry. From todays perspective this political decision of the regulators may seem shortsighted. Those responsible (apparently) expect a very different outcome, but their analysis and decisions were limited by myopia. On what basis did the regulators form the expectations that led to their decision? This project investigates how assumptions about uncertain economic situations develop, shape expectations about the future, and influence decisions. Taking the case of international financial organizations (IFOs) it will investigate their approaches to crises of sovereign debt. Between the end of Bretton Woods (1971-73) and the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 there were 58 instances of default. The majority of these sovereign debt crises subsequently led to crises of the banking, and currency systems of the states involved. Many even developed into international financial crises. As lender of last resort (IMF and the Bank for International Settlements), agent of debt restructuring (Paris Club), de facto setter of standards (Group of 30), and representative of commercial banking interests (Institute for International Finance), IFOs have played critical roles in such crises. Taking the perspective of IFO and their approaches to sovereign debt crises the project design not only allows individual decisions to be analyzed as historically contingent cases but also permits an investigation of the ways in which the expectations of the actors involved in financial crises changed over time. The project has three goals: First, it looks at the information collected by IFOs to mitigate economic uncertainty. Which information did they consider important for expectations formation? Second, it analyses the politics and practices of the production of knowledge regarding cash-flow forecasts, and asks about the existence of dominant narratives that may have evoked crises or simply prevented risks from being identified. Third, it examines how expectations influenced decision-making in crises; at the same time, however, it seeks to determine whether the crises themselves reconfigured previous experiences. Systematic investigation of these three points, through the lens of the IFOs, promises a new understanding of the mechanisms, successes and (mis)judgments associated with volatile market developments - an analysis that goes far beyond the familiar history of events. Economic sociology, hermeneutics and the sociology of knowledge will provide theoretical approaches for understanding the relationship between expectation formation, crises, and social learning. Case studies of foreign debt crises will be used to demonstrate and explain long-term developments but also breaches in expectation formation. The empirical basis of the project will be archival sources from the IFOs, and pertinent journals.

例如，2008年9月决定让雷曼兄弟破产，现在被广泛认为是金融业国际信任危机的开始。从今天的角度来看，监管机构的这一政治决定似乎是短视的。那些负责人（显然）期待一个非常不同的结果，但他们的分析和决定受到近视的限制。监管者在什么基础上形成了导致他们做出决定的预期？该项目研究了对不确定经济形势的假设如何发展，塑造对未来的预期，并影响决策。以国际金融组织（IFO）为例，它将调查它们对主权债务危机的处理方法。从布雷顿森林体系结束（1971-73年）到1997-1998年的亚洲金融危机，共有58次违约。大多数主权债务危机随后导致了相关国家的银行和货币体系危机。许多甚至发展成为国际金融危机。作为最后贷款人（货币基金组织和国际清算银行）、债务重组的代理人（巴黎俱乐部）、实际上的标准制定者（30国集团）和商业银行利益的代表（国际金融协会），国际金融组织在这些危机中发挥了关键作用。从IFO及其处理主权债务危机的方法的角度来看，项目设计不仅允许将个别决定作为历史上的偶然情况进行分析，而且还允许调查参与金融危机的行为者的期望随着时间的推移而变化的方式。该项目有三个目标：首先，它着眼于IFO收集的信息，以减轻经济的不确定性。他们认为哪些信息对预期的形成很重要？其次，它分析了有关现金流预测的知识生产的政治和实践，并询问是否存在可能引发危机或只是阻止风险被识别的主导叙述。第三，它研究了预期如何影响危机中的决策;然而，与此同时，它试图确定危机本身是否重新配置了以前的经验。通过IFO的透镜对这三点进行系统研究，有望对与波动性市场发展相关的机制、成功和（错误）判断有新的理解--这种分析远远超出了熟悉的事件历史。经济社会学、解释学和知识社会学将为理解期望形成、危机和社会学习之间的关系提供理论方法。外债危机的个案研究将用来说明和解释长期发展情况以及预期形成中的违约情况。该项目的经验基础将是来自国际金融组织和相关期刊的档案资料。