Forecast uncertainty near the limit of predictability (A06)

该项目的目的是描述中欧上空不同尺度对流的可预测性，特别是暴雨和干旱等高影响天气现象的可预测性。我们采取跨时间尺度的无缝方法，从几个小时后单个对流风暴的可预测性损失到可预测性的潜在窗口，其中一些可预测性保持到亚季节时间尺度。我们结合联合收割机的对流天气耦合的强度与大尺度天气制度分类和寻找窗口的异常可预报性。对更长预报时间的关注提出了一个新的问题，即大气如何与地球系统的其他组成部分相互作用。在这个项目中，我们将研究植被过程的作用，可以影响可预测性。

The aim of this project is to characterize the predictability of convection over Central Europe at different scales, in particular, the predictability of high impact weather phenomena such as heavy rainfall and drought. We take a seamless approach across time scales, from the loss of predictability of individual convective storms after a few hours to potential windows of predictability where some predictability is maintained up to sub-seasonal time scales. We combine the strength of the convection-synoptic coupling with a large scale weather regime classification and search for windows of anomalous predictability. The focus on longer forecast times raises the new question of how the atmosphere interacts with other Earth system components. In this project, we will examine the role of vegetation processes that can influence predictability.