Forecast uncertainty near the limit of predictability (A06)

该项目的目的是描述中欧对流在不同尺度上的可预报性，特别是强降雨和干旱等高影响天气现象的可预报性。我们采取了跨时间尺度的无缝方法，从个别对流风暴在几个小时后失去可预报性，到潜在的可预报性窗口，其中一些可预报性一直保持到亚季节性时间尺度。我们将对流-天气耦合的强度与大尺度天气形势分类结合起来，寻找异常可预报的窗口。对更长预报时间的关注提出了一个新的问题，即大气如何与地球系统的其他组成部分相互作用。在这个项目中，我们将研究影响可预测性的植被过程的作用。

The aim of this project is to characterize the predictability of convection over Central Europe at different scales, in particular, the predictability of high impact weather phenomena such as heavy rainfall and drought. We take a seamless approach across time scales, from the loss of predictability of individual convective storms after a few hours to potential windows of predictability where some predictability is maintained up to sub-seasonal time scales. We combine the strength of the convection-synoptic coupling with a large scale weather regime classification and search for windows of anomalous predictability. The focus on longer forecast times raises the new question of how the atmosphere interacts with other Earth system components. In this project, we will examine the role of vegetation processes that can influence predictability.