Current and future socio-hydrological responses on climate variability and climate change in the Ayeyarwady River Basin, Myanmar

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The Ayeyarwady River basin covers 61 % of Myanmar´s landmass and provides a large number of ecosystem services. The river is the lifeline of the nation because it serves for transportation, water supply, irrigation, fishing and others. Regional climate variabilities have severe hydrological effects and can cause extreme floods and droughts in the climate sensitive river basin. This is especially the case for the delta and the central dry zone, which are the most densely populated areas of the country. Due to the expected climate change, the natural influencing parameters will possibly change significantly, which can have major impacts on regional water resources, which in turn, can modify also the degree of human interventions. All these changes are affecting and will affect the socio-hydrological system, the riparian´s livelihoods, their wellbeing and the river basin ecosystems in a so far unknown way. Research on socio-hydrologic responses to climate variability and expected climate change does not exist for the country. We want to address the question, how climate variabilities, which cause floods and droughts, interplay with the river basin hydrology and human wellbeing and society in the delta and the dry zone of the Ayeyarwady River basin. With this proposal we apply for a 9 months pilot phase in order to conduct a thorough data collection, sound literature review and data processing. Furthermore, the identification of case study sites during a field trip is a central objective for the first working step. Another fundamental goal is the establishment of (academic) cooperation in Myanmar. Based on our findings and data outcome from this pilot study we will then apply for a 36 months follow-up proposal aiming at increasing the knowledge of climate variability and socio-hydrologic responses in the delta and the dry zone of the Ayeyarwady basin and close the gap of socio-hydrologic and climatic research in the entire river basin.