Are humans responsible for recent changes in the behaviour of tropical cyclones? Decoupling natural variability from human influence using isotopes

人类对热带气旋最近行为的变化负有责任吗？

• 批准号: DP0772691
• 负责人: Prof Jonathan Nott
• 金额: $ 22.19万
• 依托单位: James Cook University
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2007-01-01 至 2014-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP0772691
• 关键词: humans; responsible; recent; changes; behaviour

An increase in the frequency of intense landfalling tropical cyclones will have a major impact upon Australia's economy and the safety of its citizens and visitors. There is little doubt that global climate change will cause this increase. Understanding when this might occur and the extent of this change over and above that which could also occur naturally will help reduce economic loss and save peoples' lives. Using isotope records of tropical cyclones and global climate models we will differentiate natural from human induced changes and ascertain the likely future impact of this hazard on Australia and its near neighbours.

强烈热带气旋登陆频率的增加将对澳大利亚的经济及其公民和游客的安全产生重大影响。毫无疑问，全球气候变化将导致这一增长。了解这种情况何时可能发生，以及这种变化超出自然发生的程度，将有助于减少经济损失，挽救人民的生命。利用热带气旋的同位素记录和全球气候模型，我们将区分自然和人为引起的变化，并确定这种危害对澳大利亚及其近邻的未来可能影响。