Development of probabilistic risk assessment method using climate ensembles to consider both flood and drought disasters

开发利用气候集合考虑洪水和干旱灾害的概率风险评估方法

• 批准号: 21J01854
• 负责人: 山田 真史
• 金额: $ 3.08万
• 依托单位: Kyoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2021-04-28 至 2024-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-21J01854/
• 关键词: 分布型降雨流出氾濫モデル; 分布型水文モデル; 洪水リスク評価; 渇水リスク評価; 河道断面

今年度は1)地先の浸水・渇水被害算定に用いる広域高解像度分布型水文モデル開発と2)利水インフラデータの収集・導入を実施した．1)高水時の越流や低水時の可能取水量の推定に重要な河道内水位の再現性向上のため，河道測量実断面を広域導入した．従来の実断面導入は手作業に依存し広域展開が難しいため，本研究は断面導入の課題を整理し，汎用的な自動アルゴリズムを開発した．日本全域5秒角分布型水文モデルに本手法を適用し，一級河川国管理区間の約73%（約7735km）に計26032実断面を導入できた．過去出水の比較再現実験から，広域での水位再現精度指標の向上，特に過小評価の解消を示した．断面観測のない河道には上述の実断面データを元に流域面積等による平均河道断面形状の推定式を提案した．上述の成果により広域モデル全体で妥当な河道断面形状を設定でき，河道内水位変動の再現性が向上することで，高水時の氾濫現象や低水時の可能取水量の評価精度の向上が見込まれる．また低水期再現の長期流出解析で必要な蒸発散量等陸面諸量を陸面モデルSiBUCを用いて再解析・気候アンサンブルを入力に解析しており，長期流出解析の入力条件の整備が進んでいる．2)利水インフラのデータ収集について，一級水系について法定計画や国土交通省・農林水産省等の官庁資料，土地改良区・水利団体から情報を収集し，主たる取水堰の位置諸量や配水網・配水域をデータベース化した．また，流域を跨ぐ利水目的での配水事業について情報収集を行い，全国一級水系間の導水事業についてデータベース化した．続いて利水インフラ群をモデル上に投影し，モデル上の地形・河道網・土地利用情報との紐づけを行うことで，モデル内に利水圏の設定を実施した．今年度の研究成果は広域高解像度分布型水文モデルの持つ蓋然性を向上させ，信頼性の高い広域での浸水・渇水評価に資すると考えられ，進展は高く評価できる．

In this year, 1) the calculation of the damage caused by flooding in the ground is determined by using the hydrologic experiment with high resolution distribution in the area of flood. 2) the collection of flood water is applied. 1) when the water is high, the water level in the river is low, the possible water intake is estimated, and the water level in the river is very important. The measuring cross-section of the river is in operation. The cross-section of the river has been put into the field of manual monitoring, which has been expanded. In this study, the cross-section of the survey has been completed, and the automatic equipment used in this study has been used. This technique is suitable for 5-second angular distribution hydrology in Japan. About 73% (about 7735km) of the first-level river country management area estimated that more than 26032 cross-sections entered the river. Through the past effluent ratio, the reappearance accuracy of the water level in the basin indicates an increase. This is a special proposal for the estimation of the average cross-section shape of the river, such as that of the river, and so on. When the water is high, the temperature is like that at low water. The accuracy of the water intake may be higher than that of the low water. The analysis of the long-term outflow in the low water period is necessary, such as the amount of steam diffusivity and so on. The temperature of the surface is measured by the SiBUC, and the temperature is analyzed by the temperature reanalysis. Long-term analysis of input conditions for long-term outflow is ready to improve. 2) the distribution of water resources, the first-level legal plan of water system, the official data of the Ministry of Land, Transport, Forestry and Water Resources, the collection of water conservancy facilities in land improvement areas, the location of water intake Weir, the distribution of water, the distribution of water and water, and so on. The river basin spans the river basin for water distribution purposes, the water distribution system is integrated, and the water industry at the first level of the country is integrated. The projection of the group of water resources is projected on the upper reaches of the river, and the land use situation of the upper reaches of the terrain and river courses is affected. This year's research results show that high-resolution distributed hydrologic data sets are highly probable, reliable and reliable. In this year's research results, high-resolution distributed hydrologic data sets are highly reliable and reliable.

项目成果

Development of nationwide 150m high-resolution Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation model for flood forecasting: Integration of 26,000 cross-section data to improve flood predictions.

开发全国150m高分辨率降雨-径流-洪水预报模型：整合26,000个断面数据以改进洪水预报。

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: YAMADA Masafumi;SAYAMA Takahiro;YAMAZAKI Dai
• 通讯作者: YAMAZAKI Dai

日本全国の中小河川を対象にした分布型洪水予測モデルのパラメータ地域統合化

日本全国中小河流分布式洪水预测模型的区域参数整合

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: 佐山敬洋;山田真史;菅原快斗;山北文登
• 通讯作者: 山北文登

日本全国を対象とした高解像度広域RRIモデルにおける河道断面形状推定式の提案と精度評価

覆盖日本全境的高分辨率广域RRI模型中河道断面形状估计公式的提出及精度评估

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: 山田真史;佐山敬洋
• 通讯作者: 佐山敬洋

DEVELOPMENT OF METHODOLOGY FOR INTRODUCING SURVEYED RIVER CROSS-SECTIONS INTO NATIONWIDE DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL THROUGHOUT JAPAN, AND ITS EFFECT ON WATER LEVEL PREDICTION ACCURACY

将调查河流断面引入日本全国分布式水文模型的方法的开发及其对水位预测精度的影响

• DOI: 10.2208/jscejhe.78.1_7
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)
• 作者: YAMADA Masafumi;SAYAMA Takahiro;YAMAZAKI Dai;WATANABE Megumi
• 通讯作者: WATANABE Megumi

日本全域RRIモデルへの河道断面観測データベースの自動導入アルゴリズムの開発

开发将河道断面观测数据库自动引入日本全国 RRI 模型的算法

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: 山田真史;佐山敬洋;山崎大
• 通讯作者: 山崎大