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Past global climate conditions and the impact on the Tibetan hydrological cycle

过去的全球气候状况及其对西藏水文循环的影响

基本信息

批准号：
29448189
负责人：
Professor Dr. Klaus Fraedrich
金额：
--
依托单位：
KlimaCampus Hamburg
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2006
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2005-12-31 至 2010-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/29448189?language=en
关键词：
Past global climate conditions impact

项目摘要

The major source of variation in landscape and ecosystems in Tibet is the regional branch of the hydrological cycle. In particular, the biosphere suffers from floods and droughts, which are due to short and long-term variability and the temporal shifts within the annual cycle. There is sufficient observational evidence that climate conditions and in particular the hydrological cycle have changed considerably in the past. This project focuses on the simulation of the variability of the hydrological cycle with a global climate model including atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice, and the biosphere. The variability of the hydrological cycle is analysed on all relevant time scales from months to centuries. Although a regional approach might appear sufficient as a first step, climatological experience shows that, due to the coupling to the global climate system, any regionally restricted view of the hydrological cycle is insufficient. The results of these simulations for extreme global and regional conditions allow a comparison with observational findings in Tibetan tree-ring and lake sediments within the joined project. To assess the long-term climate variability, several climate periods are singled out, which represent extreme long lasting climatic states or are relevant for the analyses of trends and climatic changes.

西藏景观和生态系统变化的主要来源是水文循环的区域分支。特别是，生物圈遭受洪水和干旱，这是由于短期和长期的可变性和在年度周期内的时间转移。有充分的观测证据表明，气候条件，特别是水文循环在过去发生了很大变化。该项目的重点是利用包括大气、海洋、陆地和海冰以及生物圈在内的全球气候模型模拟水文循环的可变性。对水文循环的可变性进行了从数月到数百年的所有相关时间尺度的分析。虽然区域办法作为第一步似乎已经足够，但气候学经验表明，由于与全球气候系统的耦合，任何区域限制性的水文循环观点都是不够的。这些极端全球和区域条件下的模拟结果可以与联合项目中西藏树木年轮和湖泊沉积物的观测结果进行比较。为了评估长期气候变率，挑选了几个气候时期，这些时期代表了极端的长期气候状态或与趋势和气候变化分析相关。